Foxborough, MA – With the afternoon setting up for a perfect football weekend in Foxborough, the Patriots fell in a disappointing 45-27 loss to the Packers at Gillette Stadium on Sunday.
Until the game kicked off at 4:25 p.m. ET, this was a picture-perfect weekend for Patriots fans. On Saturday, New England inducted TE Rob Gronkowski into the team's Hall of Fame. Tom Brady, who called the game for Fox, attended. The Super Bowl LI champions were honored, with the Patriots Hall of Fame trio in attendance (Brady, Edelman, Gronkowski). Unfortunately, the current team didn't hold up its end of the bargain.
On the surface, the easiest thing to point to is the turnover margin. The Patriots were minus-4 in the turnover battle against the Packers, and were already 31st in turnover margin coming into Week 9 (-7). Green Bay was one of the best defenses at taking the ball away, ranking second with 15 takeaways, and they forced four more turnovers while the Pats defense produced none. The other theme was failing to limit the Packers explosive passing attack. New England missed on that key as well, allowing Packers QB Jordan Love to complete six 20-plus yard pass attempts (seven total explosive pass plays).
Ultimately, the Patriots need more from their best players, with QB Drake Maye throwing three first-half interceptions to put the team in an early deficit, and a tough outing for star CB Christian Gonzalez. Playing the NFC North division has also proven to be a real challenge. The Patriots are 0-2 against the NFC North, with another date on tap next week against the Lions (6-2) in Munich. Captain Kevin Byard III called it a measuring-stick game, and the outcomes against the Bears (30-24 loss) and Packers say it all about where the Pats currently measure up against arguably the best division in the NFL.
"When your best players don't play well, you don't have much of a chance in this league. So, we expect a lot more," head coach Mike Vrabel said. "Certainly, those are the keys (ball security, limiting big plays on defense). We're in this together. We are. We're going to get them back, and we're going to get ready to travel and figure out who's healthy and put 48 guys out there that care and that want to try to exhibit some sort of identity. We'll see how we respond."
Here are eight takeaways as the Patriots fall to 5-4 in a loss to the Packers in Week 9.
**1\. Patriots Defense Doesn't Rise to the Occasion in Sunday's Loss to the Packers**
The Patriots struggles defensively have been bubbling under the surface. Entering Week 9, New England was 11th in DVOA, 15th in scoring defense, and 16th in EPA per play. Slightly above-average isn't terrible, but watching this defense every week leaves you wanting more from a unit with good players at all three levels.
New England came into this game down top wideouts A.J. Brown (ankle/knee) and Romeo Doubs (shoulder, IR). The Pats also have been ravaged by injuries at guard, with their two starters, Alijah Vera-Tucker (hamstring) and Mike Onwenu (ankle), on injured reserve. Maye mostly keeps the offense afloat, but it's not fair to expect the young QB with a shorthanded supporting cast to carry this team every week.
With Gonzalez as a true shutdown corner, the Patriots cornerback trio played championship-caliber football in the playoffs last winter. We've also seen standout DTs Milton Williams and Christian Barmore wreck games, S Craig Woodson looked like a year-two breakout candidate, S Kevin Byard III and OLB Dre'Mont Jones were added in free agency, and linebackers Robert Spillane and Christian Elliss are quality starters.
On Sunday, the Patriots allowed a Vrabel-era high 45 points. So, what's missing for this group? That's a question I've been trying to answer, whether from the film or from speaking with the leaders on defense. On Sunday, Jones offered insight into the defense's struggles by crediting the Packers with a talented offense and a good scheme, which is valid.
"When it comes down to it, that's a great team. They know how to scheme stuff up, but we gotta play our (brand of) football. First off, we gotta get turnovers on the defensive side and then also play to our identity. You know, playing fast," Jones said. "Turnovers, that's the first thing. Playing to our standard by making plays, eliminating X plays, and things like that."
One thought is that the Patriots coverage system is very disguise-heavy. They don't want to tip their hand pre-snap, which leads to man-coverage corners playing off the line of scrimmage and exotic post-snap rotations. On Sunday, the Pats ran 14 drop-backs in man coverage (42.4%), and Love was 10-of-12 for 166 passing yards and two touchdowns, so their bread-and-butter approach let them down.
Still, could all the disguising be bogging down the secondary? Rather than playing it straight up, there's a lot of scheming in the back end that's good in theory but might be causing issues. In the end, it always comes down to better execution, but the Patriots defense isn't playing up to its capabilities right now.
**2\. Injuries Continue to Pile Up for the Patriots in Loss to the Packers**
The last big-picture item we'll hit on is another game where injuries are a major storyline. The Patriots lost CB Carlton Davis III (knee), RB Rhamondre Stevenson (knee), and LG Ben Brown (knee) to injuries on Sunday. Although there was positive news from LT Will Campbell, who said he would've returned to the game if the score was closer, it's another week where the Patriots came out of the game with several notable injuries. Frankly, it's crazy to see this team's injury luck this season, with a trip to Germany next week expediting the recovery process.
**3\. Patriots QB Drake Maye Struggles vs. Packers Top-10 Pass Defense**
The Packers defense came into the week ranked third in pass DVOA (schedule-adjusted), eighth in passing yards allowed, and 10th in pass EPA – a good pass defense by every metric.
Although we're not dipping our toes into the schedule discourse, and his supporting cast is riddled with injuries, Maye did not play well on Sunday, even if the situation is calling for him to put the Superman cape on for New England to be competitive. My No. 1 key for the Patriots offense was remaining patient against a Packers pass defense that doesn't give up many big plays. Green Bay ranked seventh-best in explosive pass play rate and was only allowing a 25% completion rate on deep pass attempts (4-of-16).
Even though that's Maye's specialty, it's a tough defense to throw deep on consistently. Rather than playing a patient game with calculated deep shots, the Pats QB's average target depth was 12.3 air yards. Plus, all three of Maye's interceptions came on throws over 18 air yards, trying to hit receivers downfield into the teeth of the Packers split-safety zone coverages. According to NextGen Stats, Green Bay played an 81.1% zone coverage rate, 51.4% split-safety zones, with the Packers majoring in quarters coverages.
"We felt like they were good in the back end, especially the safety positions, they're ball aware. They've hunted a lot of turnovers, eyes on the quarterback, in zone coverage. I knew that coming into it and forced the first one," Maye said. "They jumped some crossers and just got to see it, and that's on me. And from there, we also, we did hit some big ones, so there's some give and take to it. But I think the bad ones hurt more than the good ones, unfortunately."