Before the 2026 NFL season began, I predicted a stunning Super Bowl run for the Washington Commanders. Martenzie Johnson wasn’t far off that lofty prediction; he had the Burgundy and Gold returning to the NFC Championship.
At the approximate midway point of a season that’s so far produced a hideous 2-5-1 record, it begs the question I put directly to Johnson, The Washington Sun’s Commanders beat reporter: Where did we go wrong?
My preseason case for the Commanders depended on a healthy Jayden Daniels, an improved supporting cast and a reversal of Washington’s turnover misfortune. The protection concerns were there. I picked them anyway. And it sure feels highly unlikely they’ll win out to reach my 11-win prediction.
Johnson’s September assessment also laid out the possibilities — and the danger of watching them disappear if Washington couldn’t protect its quarterback.
We saw the check engine light. We figured the car would make it anyway.
Johnson didn’t anticipate another injury to Daniels, whose again-dislocated elbow cost him two and a half games and has him “embracing the brace” on it the rest of the season. Terry McLaurin’s torn patella prematurely ended his season (and probably his tenure in Washington). After a summer of worrying about the center position, Lucas Patrick has given stability to a spot Nick Allegretti basically abdicated — only to lose Patrick to concussion protocol in Sunday’s loss to the Los Angeles Rams.
Injuries have undercut the offense we expected to see, but they don’t explain all the problems with the unit Washington has put on the field.
I was right about the Commanders’ turnover situation swinging their way — going from minus-13 last season to plus-7 through eight games — but I was wrong about what they would do with them: 40 points off 12 takeaways.
Also, Johnson and I underestimated the adjustment to David Blough and Daronte Jones, both first-time NFL coordinators.
“You’re going to go through growing pains,” he said. “I think I might have been naive to how difficult that might be at the NFL level.”
Fair enough. But half way through the season, Washington is still struggling with things that shouldn’t require a new playbook to understand.
Through Week 9, the Commanders had committed 61 accepted penalties and drawn 53, a difference of eight. They were penalized 468 yards while their opponents were penalized 353, a 115-yard disadvantage, according to NFL Penalties.
To be fair, that measures the penalty disadvantage, not the quality of the officiating. But Washington has supplied plenty of its own evidence of poor execution.
“The mistakes that they were making in Week 1, they’re still making past Week 8,” Johnson said.
Take the Sunday night win over the Eagles: Consecutive false starts turned third-and-1 into third-and-11 on the opening possession against Philadelphia — the first drive coming out of a bye. A team losing its best receiver isn’t an excuse for not remembering the snap count.
Johnson puts responsibility on the players, too.
“At a certain time, you have to be an adult, you have to be a professional,” he said.
He still sees a roster capable of much more than its record suggests. I understand the temptation to look at the touchdowns erased by penalties and the opportunities squandered and imagine a different season.
But the penalty counts, too. You don’t get to keep the touchdown and erase the reason it didn’t count. Those mistakes belong in the evaluation of this team, especially when they keep happening.
The steep defensive learning curve
In a bit of a bombshell, Odafe Oweh told Ben Standig of Last Man Standig that coaches sometimes “didn’t understand the way that Daronte saw it.”
Jones brought his version of Brian Flores’ Minnesota scheme to Washington without bringing assistants from the Vikings who already knew it. So the largely inherited staff had to learn the system while teaching it.
“What you didn’t expect is like the guys teaching the defense don’t have the full grasp of what needs to be done either,” Johnson said.
That’s a fairly significant flaw in the installation plan. Experience coaching defense doesn’t automatically make an assistant fluent in this defense. Making sure the instructions survive the trip from coordinator to position coach to player is part of the job.
Jones has responded with simpler terminology, rehearsals of how assistants present concepts and more meetings involving the defensive front. Washington also added former NFL head coach and defensive coordinator Steve Wilks as a consultant before the bye. Initially assigned to early-week preparation, Wilks’ role expanded to include a headset on the sideline for the Eagles game, The Banner reported.
Those are substantive efforts to fix the problem. They’re also an acknowledgment that hiring a coordinator and successfully installing his defense are separate accomplishments.
Johnson sees improving coverage and a defense beginning to generate the pressure its aggression is supposed to produce. He remains more comfortable with the personnel than I am.
The standard for the remaining schedule is whether the rush and coverage can function together consistently, without the communication breakdown that turns a manageable play into an explosive one.
Philadelphia Eagles v Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels (#5) ran and passed the Washington Commanders to victory over the reeling and injured Philadelphia Eagles — but can he lead them to sustained success in a bad division? (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images) Getty Images/Scott Taetsch
Jayden Daniel’s development
My most hated stat in football is the win-loss record assigned to quarterbacks. There are too many people involved in producing either result to hang it all on one player, even if he’s the most important one.
Daniels has thrown 180 passes without an interception and is averaging 8.1 yards per rush attempt. Those are reasons for optimism.
However, his 63.9 completion percentage is significantly down from his 69% as a rookie.
The film gets at a different question: How much is he getting out of the plays he has?
Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner raised that concern in his conversation with Standig. In his review of the 49ers game, Warner pointed to Daniels looking for a checkdown as soon as he reached the top of his drop, before giving deeper routes a chance to develop.
Johnson’s own film review saw “wide-open receivers that he’s not seeing,” adding that inconsistent protection is part of the problem.
Sometimes a defender arrives before Daniels can find the open man. Other times, Johnson sees the effects of previous pressure lingering even when the pocket holds up.
“But there are times where maybe he’s getting happy feet because of the lack of protection on other plays,” he said.
Washington owes Daniels a pocket he can trust. Daniels owes the offense the throws that pocket makes possible. Both things can be true without turning every criticism of the quarterback into a referendum on whether he’s the franchise.
The remaining games should also establish how much help is already here. Johnson believes Daniels “has very capable receivers, and now it’s a matter of the consistency the rest of the year.” He points to Antonio Williams’ growing confidence and Treylon Burks’ ability to get behind defenders as reasons the passing game can improve, even without McLaurin. (Burks didn’t play against the Rams due to injury, further testing its depth at receiver.)
That helps explain why Johnson would prioritize protection over a splashy skill-position acquisition at the trade deadline.
Buyers or sellers?
General manager Adam Peters should be asking the same question we should have asked more skeptically in September: What will make this offense function, rather than simply make it look better on paper?
Burgundy and Gold fans would love to see names like Brian Thomas Jr. and Jonathan Taylor attached to Washington — the sort of big-swing blockbusters that could bring balance and playmaking to the Commanders’ offense in 2026 and beyond.
But Johnson would start at left guard. And if Peters can get a starting-caliber one at a price he’d be willing to pay in March, he should make the deal. The Commanders should also listen to offers for veterans, such as Dorance Armstrong, if Peters is prepared to move on after the season.
Peters can both buy and sell and still give Washington a chance in the NFC East. The Giants lead at 5-2-1, three games ahead of the Commanders despite a revolving door at quarterback. Dallas and Philadelphia have losing records. A hideous start has made the climb harder without making the division unreachable.
The immediate schedule gives Washington a chance to do something about that: a head-to-head battle with the Giants on Thursday night and a mini-bye before a Monday night matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals. Beat the Giants, and this division race gets considerably more interesting.
There are opportunities beyond that, too, with Arizona, Tennessee, Houston and Atlanta all below .500. The Commanders have enough winnable games left to salvage something. They’ve supplied plenty of evidence that they can squander them, too.
When I asked Johnson what would make the rest of this season productive, he named three things: better line play, greater accuracy from Daniels and a pass rush that gets home.
Blitzing accomplishes little, he said, “if you’re not putting hands or your body on the quarterback.”
Add fewer self-inflicted mistakes, and there’s a useful standard for the final nine games. Those improvements would help Washington now while giving Peters evidence about the players and coaches he should trust beyond this season. Another stirring comeback won’t answer those questions if the same problems make it necessary.
The Commanders have regressed badly since they excelled in those “winning time moments” during the 2024 run to the NFC title game. Now it struggles to get the basics right.
Washington still has time to change what this season means. Johnson and I already predicted greatness. The Commanders can cash it in at any time.
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