On Tuesday, the US-Iran conflict reached its 256th day; talks between the U.S. and Iran remain stalled despite the two countries signing a memorandum of understanding in June, aimed at ending the war that began with joint American-Israeli strikes on the country in February. The opening strikes killed a host of top Iranian officials and commanders, among them Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The two sides have continued to exchange strikes, though they have not returned to the intense fighting seen in the early stages of the conflict.
The U.S. says it is enforcing a naval blockade of the country’s Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman ports, while Iran claims control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz and continues to claim attacks on shipping transiting the waterway.
Meanwhile, intensified fighting between Saudi-backed Yemeni forces and Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen has seen the latter repeatedly attack Saudi military, oil infrastructure, and transport facilities.
US President Donald Trump says there is “positive momentum” towards ending the war on Iran after talks with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani in Washington, DC.
On Tuesday, Iran’s top security official, Mohsen Rezaei, has called on the US to “surrender” to Tehran’s seven conditions to end the war, accusing Washington of spreading “fake news” about “imaginary talks”.
GCC Secretary General Jasem Mohamed Albudaiwi says there will be an “allocation of appropriate forces” to the base following a meeting of the bloc’s defence ministers in Bahrain.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi urges the US “to act on Iran’s demands and conditions, which are stated in the two-day plan and are still on the table”.
However, G7 allies are very much interested in what the Qatari PM discussed with Trump. They said that they know that Qatari PM Al Thani is in meetings at the moment with other G7 foreign ministers and also the foreign minister from Saudi Arabia, and we’re hearing that this was an unexpected stop and was decided after this meeting with US President Trump.
Trump seems to imply that the US will not be returning to war with Iran. And those statements were made after the meeting with the Qatari PM.
What we understand is that the Qatari PM is partly briefing other foreign ministers from the G7 and the Saudi minister on those talks, what was discussed in those talks, and that they will continue the discussions.
Undoubtedly, this crisis in the Middle East has affected not just the Middle East, and not just the warring parties, but has had repercussions much farther, and they are being felt very much here in Europe.
So, the G7 allies are very interested in what the Qatari PM discussed with the US president in Washington.
We’re not expecting a statement after this meeting, but, of course, we will be standing by for anything that comes out of this meeting.
Today, two tankers caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz, as the IRGC has said that two oil tankers, including a super tanker, have caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz after using what Tehran calls an “unauthorised route”.
“One of these vessels, a super tanker, hit a naval mine and exploded, and the second tanker, which was under the protection of the US aggressor’s fighter jets and was attempting to secretly pass through the illegal route, had an accident and was stopped in its place with a terrible fire,” the IRGC said in a statement, Iran’s State TV reported.
The statement reiterated that “the unauthorised route is unsafe and all ships cooperating with the terrorist and aggressive US army that intend to pass through this route will suffer this fate”.
As I discussed in my previous analysis, Doha is “working tirelessly to end the uncertainty over the crisis between Washington and Tehran”.
Ibrahim bin Sultan Al-Hashmi, director of the ministry’s media and communication department, told a weekly news briefing that mediation efforts are ongoing and there are positive reactions from both sides of the crisis.
The approach of winter, coupled with the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, is doubling the cost of the crisis, he added.
Al-Hashimi also condemned the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, affirming Qatar’s support for all measures taken by Riyadh to maintain its security and stability.
On the other hand, Canada’s Foreign Ministry says it has reimposed sanctions on 11 Iranian entities removed from its sanctions list in 2016 after it previously recognised Iran’s progress under the nuclear deal known as the JCPOA.
The ministry said the measures further restrict Iran’s access to “sensitive technologies” and “sources of funding”, prohibiting people in Canada and Canadians abroad from conducting specified financial or property transactions with the listed entities.
At the same time, Abbas Pazouki, the communications and information deputy of Iran’s First Vice President’s office, has said that “despite the naval blockade and the restrictions imposed by the terrorist US regime, the country’s reserves of essential goods are in very good shape”.
He added that “stocks of some items are even higher than before the blockade”.
In a post on X, Pazouki cited a recent meeting of the Market Regulation Headquarters, a high-level government body, where the “encouraging reports were presented on the status of essential goods reserves”.
“The supply, arrival, clearance, and distribution of people’s necessities also continue without interruption,” he added.
But I find that despite the ongoing efforts to resolve this conflict, continuity of strikes by the US and Iran, de-escalation deal is not in sight, resulting in indecisiveness to escalate probabilities of continuation of the conflict like both the US and Iran have experienced during the previous conflict between the two in 1979, went on for 444 days, as I discussed in my previous analysis Gold May Test 2026 Lows Sooner Than Anticipated - Here’s Why yesterday.
Technically, gold futures are trading in "Bearish Territory, as the post-peak slide has turned Steeper since September 3, 2026 from 40-Degree angle of depression to 47-degree, resulting in repeated sell-offs on every bounce, as gold futures have already entered in a “Bearish” set-up since September 28, 2026, after piercing the significant support at the 200 EMA ($4,248), while the other Exponential Moving Averages (9, 20, 50 and100) have also come below the 200 EMA, resulting in formation of a “Bearish Crossover).
Gold Futures Daily Chart
Gold Futures Daily Chart
On Tuesday, despite testing the day’s high at $4,150.50, gold futures are trading at $4056.65, trying to hold the 9 EMA ($4,060), as gold futures are weighed down by a hotter-than-anticipated U.S. inflation reading for October that, combined with hawkish comments from a Federal Reserve policymaker, all but solidify expectations for an interest rate hike next month.
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Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold at their own risk, as this analysis is based solely on observations.