Presented by Ørsted
London Playbook
By SAM BLEWETT
with BETHANY DAWSON
Good Thursday morning. This is Sam Blewett.
DRIVING THE DAY
THE SEARCH FOR INTELLIGENCE: Keir Starmer is off to see defense industry workers in Britain, while European leaders and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy muster without him at an EU summit on beefing up military spending. But today’s most high-stakes Ukraine meeting (from a U.K. standpoint) could end up falling to Defence Secretary John Healey. He’s in the U.S. for face-to-face talks with his counterpart Pete Hegseth — and Donald Trump’s abrupt freezes of intelligence sharing and military aid to Ukraine will surely dominate the agenda. It may end up as a bad day or a better one for the rest of the West; who knows what the president will post online. Either way, it’s another day in which we dance to the beat of the MAGA drum.
Grim reading: The grave impact of the White House’s freeze on intelligence sharing with Kyiv is becoming apparent, as shown in the details packed into today’s papers. The Telegraph’s striking splash goes in on how long-range HIMARS missiles so key for holding back Vladimir Putin’s advances were effectively frozen by the move — and the BBC says this also extended to British-donated Storm Shadows. The Times leads on Ukrainian MP Kira Rudik warning that “so many people will be doomed” by Trump’s “brutal” decision.
We can but hope: British officials are hopeful that it’s a bargaining gambit by Trump (the co-author of “The Art of the Deal,” in case no one reminded you lately) to get Ukraine to negotiate on critical minerals after last Friday’s Oval Office disaster. The Brits believe positive talks between Washington and Kyiv would ensure there’s only a short pause in American support. But that’s anything but clear right now, as shown by the president’s erratic approach to, well, most things. Just look at his post to the people of Gaza overnight: “A beautiful Future awaits, but not if you hold Hostages. If you do, you are DEAD!” More details further down this email.
**A message from Ørsted:With the right reforms to the planning system, the UK will be able to deploy more offshore wind and simultaneously enhance the marine environment. When Government, industry, and NGOs work together, we can deliver home-grown, secure and low-cost renewable energy and long-lasting benefits for nature and people.**
Let’s ask him: Starmer, who finds his favorability ratings bumping up as he takes greater leadership on Ukraine, will speak to broadcasters around noon on a visit to a defense company where he’ll talk with employees and apprentices in the national security sector.
But first: Starmer and many of his top Cabinet lieutenants are in Liverpool for the inaugural U.K.-Ireland summit. After some “Guinness diplomacy,” as the PM touted last night in a warm-up speech, Starmer will talk with Taoiseach Micheál Martin about security (both national and energy) and cutting “red tape” for developers to boost offshore energy production. No doubt they’ll compare notes on handling the Orange One too, as the Irish PM has his first meeting with Trump next week when he heads to the White House to mark St Patrick’s Day.
In from the cold: With Martin heralding the event as another “major and significant manifestation” of a post-Brexit reset in relations, the two leaders will hold a roundtable with businesses from both sides of the Irish Sea. Expect warm words from Starmer at the top of that.
But relations aren’t that cozy: Martin will leave Starmer and head to Brussels for what is the main event for political top brass on the continent: the gathering of EU leaders for what’s being dubbed the “five minutes-to-midnight summit.” The high-stakes talks will center on how Europe can defend itself in the event the U.S. withdraws from its role as guarantor of peace.
Tune in: Expect premiers to speak to the cameras on their way into the Europa HQ ahead of kickoff at 11.30 a.m. (U.K. time). My colleagues in Brussels will keep you up to date in our summit live blog.
No fatigue for fatigues: The Ukrainian president will be showing full respect by turning up to the summit in person rather than addressing leaders by a video link as initially planned. Don’t expect anyone in Brussels to be bawling out the wartime leader for not dressing up to the nines.
On pont : Starmer’s main competitor to be the “bridge” with the White House, Emmanuel Macron, will be among the 27 EU leaders. The French president last night made a dramatic primetime address, warning that Moscow’s aggression “knows no borders,” and suggested he’ll hold talks with allies on how France’s nuclear arsenal could protect the wider continent … which could be quite a moment in history. He also announced that he’ll hold an emergency summit of European army chiefs in Paris next week.
Stand by: “I want to believe that the U.S. will stay by our side, but we have to be ready if they don’t,” Macron said down the TV lens, raising the prospect publicly that America may go AWOL. That’s a far more pessimistic (or realistic) tone than Starmer was taking over the weekend when he insisted the U.S. remains a “reliable ally.”
Steeling the porcupine: The main item on the European Council’s agenda is the “REARM EU” proposal that includes a €150 billion loan program to bolster the defense industry. There’s also easing the bloc’s deficit rules that’ve been holding back member countries from hiking defense spending — though they are wary of how the markets will react to raising debt to GDP levels (fears of the “Liz Truss effect,” as one diplomat put it to Playbook).
The verdict: After the summit wraps up, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President António Costa will hold a press conference. But seasoned EU watchers will know all too well this could drag out pretty late. Keep an eye on the schedule here.
Not present but not uninvolved: While Starmer won’t be there, you can bet on him getting an update at some point later. Look out for whether he pushes for the seizure of billions of euros worth of Russian assets frozen in Europe to bolster the Ukrainian war chest amid resistance from Germany and Belgium. Starmer has signaled he’s in favor but one well-placed senior MP went further, saying the government is “keener than you think.” The Labour figure noted there is “heated legal argument” surrounding the proposals but pointed out to Playbook: “The risk of Putin winning in Ukraine is bigger.”
While you’re waiting for all that: Lend an ear to Armed Forces Minister Luke Pollard’s keynote speech to Chatham House’s security conference from 12.15 p.m. — details here. He may well be able to shed some light on the report by the Mail’s Mark Nicol that as many as 24 of the RAF’s Tranche 1 Typhoon jets that were written off a couple of years ago could be revived to lead Britain’s postwar force in Ukraine.
OVER TO D.C.: Healey will meet his U.S. counterpart Hegseth in Washington this evening. The talks were arranged during a somewhat cheerier moment when Hegseth warmly praised Starmer’s commitment to hike the defense budget to 2.5 percent of GDP by slashing development spending. But they’ll now take on a more difficult tone, as Healey plans to raise the need to resume military support and intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
Brought to Heal: Tailed by journalists in rainy Washington last night, Healey confirmed intelligence would be on the agenda but insisted we’re “pulling together … and we’re working hard on a path to peace.” After touching down in the States, the defense secretary fired off a message on the Muskosphere saying relations between the U.K. and U.S. are “as strong as ever.”
Grip and grimace: “Will he shake his hand!?” said one aghast Labour MP. The answer is surely yes, even though the former Fox News host once claimed he hadn’t scrubbed his mitts for over a decade because “germs are not a real thing.” Pictures at the top of the meeting — due to start at 6.30 p.m. U.K.-time — should confirm that grubby grip.
Also not a real thing: Alas, a joint press conference between Healey and Hegseth has not been scheduled, meaning there’ll be no chance to grill them on just what “random country” veep JD Vance was mocking the other day if it wasn’t Britain or France.
Do expect … Healey to adopt very diplomatic tones when he speaks to Trump-friendly media including Fox News and Newsmax at around 11 p.m. Playbook also hears he will be continuing the diplomacy drive in a meeting with E5 counterparts in Paris on Tuesday.
Putting it more bluntly: One of President Zelenskyy’s staunchest allies has warned Trump is “being used” by Putin “to undermine us from within” by parroting the Kremlin’s calls for elections to be held in Ukraine. Oleksandr Merezhko, chair of the Ukrainian parliament’s foreign affairs committee, tells Power Play’s Anne McElvoy: “Putin understands that an election campaign during times of war will be destructive for our unity and for our stability. The danger is that [Putin’s] using someone in Trump’s entourage to promote this idea.” Tune into the pod here.
All eyes peeled: Top Zelenskyy aide Andriy Yermak said U.S. and Ukrainian officials will meet soon to talk about resuming discussions on peace and security. The time and location are as yet unknown. But also well worth noting is how senior members Trump’s entourage have held secret talks with some of Zelenskyy’s top political opponents — just as Washington aligns with the Kremlin on trying to lever the Ukrainian leader out of the top job. My colleague Jamie Dettmer has the rundown of those being chatted up.
BACK IN BLIGHTY
U.K. DOGE: Chancellor Rachel Reeves is out and about today as the grim trickle of warning signals begins to surge on the economy ahead of her spring statement. The latest comes from ITV’s Anushka Asthana, who hears from top figures across the government that they’ve been asked to identify the 20 percent of spending within their departments that they reckon is the lowest priority. One even suggested they’ve been asked to identify the bottom 40 percent — gulp!
Here’s a snippet: It was a no comment from the Treasury last night, but Reeves is expected to speak to broadcasters around noon (though it may just be one measly response for now, with much of the material from the visit being embargoed for a later day).
Hard times ahead: Reeves hopes to paper over the £9.9 billion fiscal headroom that’s been evaporating in the face of higher borrowing costs and slow growth by slashing the benefits bill by billions. But an analysis by the Resolution Foundation shows just how challenging this will be. As the FT’s write-up points out, freezing health-related benefits would save £1 billion a year by 2029. The Beeb’s Ben Chu has a good look at what might be cut and where savings could be made.
To make matters worse: The Institute for Fiscal Studies bluntly points out in a new report that Reeves must either choose tax rises or a return to austerity in her update on March 26. That’s unless she breaks the tight self-imposed constraints of her fiscal rules, of which there’s been no indication. IFS economists will present their research at 1 p.m. — register here.
ON THE HUNT FOR GROWTH: David Lammy and Jonathan Reynolds have touched down in Japan to hold talks on economic security and trade as they brace for the global economic fallout from Trump’s trade war. The foreign and business secretaries will meet their counterparts Takeshi Iwaya and Yoji Muto for the inaugural U.K.-Japan economic “2+2” talks.
Take it from CPTPP: Expect the Japanese to raise its work to lead a new secretariat within the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) so members can coordinate responses to trade threats.
It’s war(hammer): Lammy will also hold talks at Japan’s defense ministry about the joint future fighter jet program between Britain, Japan and Italy. But, alas, it’s another ministerial mission abroad without a presser schedule — though Reynolds will find time to visit Brit exporters including Brompton, Burberry … and Warhammer.
STUCK IN THE MIDDLE WITH EU: Amid the tariff tit-for-tat between Trump and the EU, Northern Ireland could suffer collateral damage thanks to its hybrid status post-Brexit, my trade reporter colleague Sophie Inge writes. The prospect of tariffs being enforced in the nation already has unionist MPs hot under the collar, while others spy an investment opportunity.
SCOOP —BAILING WATER: Treasury officials are drawing up contingency plans to rescue Thames Water later this month amid fears it could go into special administration, Playbook’s Stefan Boscia writes. The debt-laden water company has a £3 billion rescue loan facility, but cannot access any of the funds because of a court case brought forward by Lib Dem MP Charlie Maynard and some of the firm’s creditors. The case will be heard between March 11 and 13 in the High Court, but there is no date set for a ruling.
What a mess: People close to the deal tell Stefan that Thames Water will run out of money if there is not a resolution to the case by March 24 — which would mean the company crashing into special administration. Treasury officials met on Wednesday to game out this scenario and draw up plans for a temporary rescue of Britain’s largest water firm. Thames Water has said in the past it needs £2 billion a year to function … which would provide yet another headache for Reeves as she prepares to wield the ax. A government spokesperson said “the company remains stable and the government is closely monitoring the situation.”
TODAY IN WESTMINSTER
BOBBY J MAKING HAY: Kemi Badenoch is letting Robert Jenrick out on the morning broadcast round to hammer home a new “two-tier justice” attack on Labour. Shadow Justice Secretary Jenrick has seized on new Sentencing Council guidelines that call for judges to consider the background of offenders from minority groups as a bigger factor when deciding whether to throw the book at them. It’s “blatant bias against straight white men,” Jenrick raged in a social media clip shot near GB News last night.
But but but: Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood couldn’t have been much firmer last night in writing to the independent council to “register my displeasure and to recommend reversing” the change. “As someone who is from an ethnic minority background myself, I do not stand for any differential treatment before the law, for anyone of any kind,” Mahmood said in a statement. “There will never be a two-tier sentencing approach under my watch.”
There’s more: Whitehall officials said the change underwent a four-month consultation up to February last year — which just so happens to be back when Jenrick’s lot were in power (though the Tories insist the government itself wasn’t consulted). Either way, it seems this row is a bit messier than some would like to make out.
And all the same: It was overshadowing the announcement Mahmood actually wanted people to be talking about — an overhaul of private prosecutions following the “catastrophic failures” surrounding the Post Office and the secretive Single Justice Procedure system. The Standard’s Tristan Kirk, who’s waged a long-running investigation into harsh or dimwitted SJP judgments, writes it up.
What the government also wants to talk about: Rail passengers across England are for the first time being shown how often trains are canceled and delays at individual stations under what Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander is hailing as a “new era of rail accountability.” The new data, which can be monitored here, gets a good write-up from PA.
All the (Fa)rage: Nigel Farage is stepping up his attacks on net zero plans, using a punchy op-ed in the Sun to blame them for “de-industrializing Britain.” The Reform UK leader will subject himself to a phone-in on TalkRadio’s drive-time show, being hosted by Sun pol ed Harry Cole for the first time. Tune in from 4.30 p.m.
STARMER BLOWS THE WHISTLE: The Football Associations of England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales expressed their intention to submit a joint bid to host the 2035 Women’s World Cup. The prime minister said the bid would have the government’s full support. BBC Sport has the story.
LOCAL ISSUES: It’s worth looking out for the written statement on “local government best value” being published by Angela Rayner. Things are, to put it mildly, already pretty grim for local authorities and as a new report from the Local Government Information Unit lays bare, 6 percent of councils reckon they’ll face effective bankruptcy in the next financial year — rising to 35 percent over the next half-decade.
DOCTOR’S ORDERS: NHS England’s Medical Director Stephen Powis is expected to announce his departure today, according to the Times’ Chris Smyth and Eleanor Hayward. The exit of the most senior NHS doctor comes just a week after NHS England CEO Amanda Pritchard left.
STATS DROP: Statistics on referrals to the National Referral Mechanism for potential victims of modern slavery in 2024 … early experimental data and analysis on economic activity and social change in the U.K. … and data on business insights and impact on the U.K. economy all drop at 9.30 a.m.
NOT SW1 EVENTS: Housing Minister Matthew Pennycook is speaking at a summit with over 200 council leaders in Sheffield to discuss how local and national governments can deliver 1.5 million promised new homes.
HOUSE OF COMMONS: Sits from 9.30 a.m. with Cabinet Office questions … business questions to Leader of the House Lucy Powell … a general debate on International Women’s Day (led by Labour MP Dawn Butler) … and a debate on political finance rules (led by Labour MP Lloyd Hatton). Shadow Transport Minister Kieran Mullan has the adjournment debate on geothermal energy.
WESTMINSTER HALL: Debates from 1.30 p.m. on topics including financial sustainability and governance of English football (led by Labour MP Yuan Yang) … and ambulance service response times (Lib Dem MP Sarah Dyke).
On committee corridor: HMRC Permanent Secretary Jim Harra is grilled by the Public Accounts Committee on the cost of the tax system (10 a.m.).
HOUSE OF LORDS: Sits from 11 a.m. with questions on legislation to address “strategic lawsuits against public participation,” the number and related cost of migrants expected to apply for indefinite leave to remain for the parliament, and the use of mobile phones in schools … an urgent question repeat on the bounties placed on Hong Kong democracy activists resident in the U.K. by the authorities of the People’s Republic of China and Hong Kong … a statement on Iranian state threats … a debate on International Women’s Day … and a short debate on securing free trade agreements with India and countries in Southeast Asia.
BEYOND THE M25
UP IN SCOTLAND: Reform UK Deputy Leader Richard Tice is doing a media round and visits in Glasgow, and will have a “special announcement” on three new Reform councilors at 11:30 a.m.
NEWS FROM THE OTHER WAR: As mentioned above, Donald Trump fired off a “last warning” to Hamas to release all the remaining hostages being held in Gaza — “or it is OVER for you.” The U.S. president wrote on (where else?) his Truth Social site just before 10 p.m. that he’ll be “sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job” … and gave a warning of death to the wider “people of Gaza” if hostages aren’t released. The threats came after the White House confirmed it had broken decades of precedent by holding direct talks with Hamas. The BBC has more.
STICK IT INTO REVERSE: Donald Trump has decided, at the urging of automakers, to delay a portion of the 25 percent tariffs he imposed on Canada and Mexico, the White House said Wednesday. The month-long reprieve will apply to all auto manufacturers operating in North America under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement. Read more from POLITICO.
YOU’RE FIRED: New Zealand’s High Commissioner to the U.K. was sacked overnight after he aimed a critical comment at Donald Trump … during a livestreamed Q&A at Chatham House on Tuesday. Goff had quoted Churchill’s speech to the Commons in 1938 after the Munich Agreement, where he told PM Neville Chamberlain he had chosen dishonor over war. Goff added: “President Trump has restored the bust of Churchill to the Oval Office. But do you think he really understands history?” This dude really should’ve checked in with Kim Darroch.
IN SYRIA: Syria’s Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani said the country’s new government is committed to destroying any remaining chemical weapons produced under its ousted leader, Bashar Assad. Read more on the Beeb.
**A message from Ørsted:Clean energy and restoring biodiversity are two of the most powerful tools we have to fight climate change. With the Government’s decision to accelerate the deployment of offshore wind to deliver clean power by 2030, the UK is going to have to create a regulatory framework that can deliver this whilst also improving the biodiversity in our seas and coastline. But we must go further. Any new policies must not only protect but also enhance the biodiversity in our seas. The most effective way to do this is to take a strategic approach to delivering an increase in both offshore wind and biodiversity. This is why Ørsted greatly welcome the Government’s announcement that they will adopt this approach and launch the ‘Marine Recovery Fund’ later this year. Find out more here.**
MEDIA ROUND
Industry Minister Sarah Jones broadcast round: Times Radio (7.05 a.m.) … Sky News (7.15 a.m.) … LBC (7.50 a.m.) … GB News (8.05 a.m.) … GMB (8.30 a.m.).
Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick broadcast round: GB News (7.05 a.m.) … Times Radio (7.35 a.m.) … Today (7.50 a.m.) … Sky News (8.15 a.m.) … LBC (8.45 a.m.) … Talk (9.05 a.m.).
Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast: National Trust Director General Hilary McGrady (8.35 a.m.).
Also on Times Radio Breakfast: Former CIA Director John Brennan (8 a.m.) … Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna (9.30 a.m.).
Also on Sky News Breakfast: Former RUSI Director General Michael Clarke (7.30 a.m.) … Refuge Head of National Domestic Abuse Helpline Emma Pickering (8.30 a.m.).
Also on LBC News: TUC Senior Policy Officer Vic Jones (7.20 a.m.) … Lib Dem health spokesperson Helen Morgan (7.45 a.m.).
Politics Live (BBC Two 12.15 p.m.): Labour MP Alice MacDonald … Conservative peer James Bethell … Novara’s Ash Sarkar … the Spectator’s Kate Andrews.
** Trump’s second-term agenda is already reshaping the world’s most powerful government, with ripple effects across Europe and beyond. From defense to trade, taxation to tech regulation, the implications are vast. How will this affect your industry, country, or organization? POLITICO’s West Wing Playbook: Remaking Government delivers the intelligence you need to navigate this shifting landscape. Sign up now.**
TODAY’S FRONT PAGES
POLITICO UK: Trump wants to destroy the EU — and rebuild it in his image.
Daily Express: Fulfil la promesse!
Daily Mail: New two-tier justice fiasco.
Daily Mirror: Thank you.
Daily Star: Orange ball of fire spotted in the sky. Stay indoors say weather boffs .. or risk getting a tan!!
Financial Times: Berlin defence funding shift triggers huge bets on growth.
i: Benefits cuts even bigger than Reeves promised as tax hikes ruled out.
Metro: 60 more victims of serial spiking rapist.
The Daily Telegraph: Trump turns off Ukraine missiles.
The Guardian: US stops sharing intelligence with Kyiv to pile pressure on Zelenskyy.
The Independent: New Trump cuts off intelligence support for Zelensky’s forces.
The Sun: Mafia cop killer free to roam UK.
The Times: More people will die after US cuts, says Ukraine MP.
TODAY’S NEWS MAGS
POLITICO Europe: Trump wants to kill the EU.
The New European: New world dis-order.
The New Statesman: The fall out.
The Spectator: Dirty deal.
LONDON CALLING
WESTMINSTER WEATHER: Nobody jinx it … but the sun is still shining. High 16C, low 11C.
SPOTTED … at the British Private Equity and Venture Capital Association annual dinner: Economic Secretary to the Treasury Emma Reynolds … Shadow Business Secretary Andrew Griffith … Shadow Science Secretary Alan Mak … Shadow Financial Secretary to the Treasury Gareth Davies … Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury Richard Fuller … Lib Dem Deputy Leader Daisy Cooper … Conservative MP John Glen … Conservative peer Howard Leigh … Labour MPs Gregor Poynton and Steve Race.
NEW GIG: Former U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron has got himself a part-time, paid role on the leadership advisory council of Finback Investment Partners, founded by ex-Florida Governor Jeb Bush. The FT has the story.
NEW GIG 2: Florent Sherifi has been appointed senior adviser to the deputy mayor of London for business and growth.
CHAMPS: New Labour MP Rosie Wrighting has been made the government’s health mission champion.
CONGRATS TO … Labour MP Lauren Edwards and partner Gareth Myton, a Medway councilor and parliamentary staffer, who had their civil partnership on Wednesday at Marylebone Town Hall.
IMPORTANT TOPIC: Labour MP Marie Tidballhas spoken to Channel 4 about her experiences as a disabled mother during pregnancy, birth and post-natal care. She is launching a campaign for maternity care that breaks down barriers for disabled women. More details on X.
LAST NIGHT AT THE AWARDS: The RTS awards took place last night, and ITV’s Paul Brand landed both political journalist and specialist journalist of the year … and Sky’s Sophy Ridge receiving the award for network presenter of the year.
Congrats all round: BBC News netted the award for breaking news for coverage of the Trump assassination attempt … ITV News Investigations took home the home news coverage award for stories on the Post Office scandal … ITV News won for international news coverage for investigating the war in the Middle East.
WRITING PLAYBOOK PM: Emilio Casalicchio.
WRITING PLAYBOOK FRIDAY MORNING: Sam Blewett.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO: Unaffiliated peer Ian Austin … former Edinburgh East MP Tommy Sheppard … former Hastings and Rye MP Sally-Ann Hart … Hanbury Strategy Director Joe Moor … Private Secretary to the Lord Speaker Andrew Woodcock … former Liberal Party Leader Michael Meadowcroft … Labour peer Jim Knight … Centre for Social Justice CEO Andy Cook.
PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editors Zoya Sheftalovich, Dan Bloom and Alex Spence, diary reporter Bethany Dawson and producer Dato Parulava.
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