British Royal Navy Vanguard Class Submarine (via A3NAE4/ Alamy)
Amid growing jumpiness over Donald Trump’s re-alignment with Russia, a vulnerability that has long troubled many in UK military circles is taking centre stage: Britain’s ultimate wartime deterrent - the Trident nuclear programme - is built on the assumption that Washington has its back.
Could there be a scenario in which the US refused to give Britain the missiles it requires for Trident? “Anyone who suggested this a year ago would have been dismissed as an idiot. Now it is a scenario that we need to plan for,” said defence analyst, Nicholas Drummond, today.
Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's ambassador to the UK, accused Washington today of “destroying the established world order”, following its moves to suspend aid and intelligence sharing with Kyiv and vote with the likes of Russia, Iran and North Korea - against all of its longstanding allies - at the UN, in opposition to a resolution condemning Russian aggression in Ukraine.
Moscow’s decision to halt intelligence sharing to Kyiv has implications for UK military aid too: Britain's long-range Storm Shadow missiles, donated by the UK to Kyiv after months of persuasion from Zelensky, are now thought to have been rendered useless, since they rely on US satellite data to hit their targets.
Against this backdrop, it’s unsurprising that concerns are being raised about Britain’s apparent nuclear dependency on Washington.
But how can it be true that the US is Britain’s nuclear benefactor when the UK purports to have its own nuclear deterrent?
The UK is able to threaten mutually assured destruction thanks to its continuous at-sea Trident deterrent, operational since 1967, deployed on the UK’s Vanguard-class submarines at an annual cost of £3 billion. Each submarine is capable of carrying up to 16 Trident II D5 Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles.
Past prime ministers have always insisted that Trident is an independent system since the UK retains full operation control of it: firing does not require the permission, satellites or codes from the US.
But critics say claiming independence is dishonest given how heavily the system depends on the US for parts and technical assistance.
British submarines must regularly visit the US Navy’s base at King’s Bay, Georgia, for maintenance or re-arming. And since Britain has no test site of its own, it tries out its weapons under US supervision at Cape Canaveral, off the Florida coast.
Nor does the UK even own its Trident missiles. Aside from those deployed, the missiles are held in the communal pool in Georgia. Trident missiles in service are returned to the US for periodic refurbishing.
What’s more, a huge amount of key Trident technology — including the neutron generators, warheads, gas reservoirs, missile body shells, guidance systems, GPS, targeting software, gravitational information and navigation systems — is provided directly from the US.
From a fiscal point of view, allowing the Trident missiles, designed in the US by Lockheed Martin, to be jointly maintained with Washington has often been regarded as common sense. Certainly much cheaper than if the Royal Navy were to carry out the work on its own.
It’s worth remembering too that, even if the US were to cut off support, Britain would have a number of Trident missiles in reserve. Tobias Ellwood, the former chair of the defence select committee, hence insists that Trump “will be out of office by the time the missiles need to be replaced”.
Though, if America refused to give Britain any new trident missiles, billions would have been wasted on the investment in Dreadnought submarines to replace the ageing Vanguard fleet.
Is it scare-mongering to even seriously discuss the possibility of Washington withdrawing support on such a serious matter?
To quote Drummond again, he also said today that he believes it to be “extremely unlikely” that Trump would cut off UK access to Trident missiles since it would be a “strategic betrayal on a grand scale that would damage him and America”.
But the fact that Britain has felt confident depending so heavily on Washington for its number one security policy shows the extent to which the UK has taken for granted that America is an ally it can count on entirely. A reminder of the enormity of the geopolitical shift underway.
Caitlin Allen
Deputy Editor
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