The case for trading Joe Milton III is complicated. Mostly because it's incumbent upon another team wanting to trade for Milton in order to make it a discussion worth having.
But in a vacuum, the merits for trading Milton are clear.
"He's big, he's athletic, he's talented," said one AFC executive. "And he has a great arm... He does have trade value. He's a quarterback, and there's upside there."
Milton, a sixth-round pick in 2024, finished his rookie year with a flourish. In a 23-16 win over the Buffalo Bills in the season finale, he went 22-for-29 for 241 yards and a touchdown. Throughout the afternoon he flashed eye-opening velocity and easy athleticism behind the line of scrimmage.
The argument for dealing Milton would be reflective of the fact that this might be an opportunity for the Patriots to sell high. It'd also be an admission that, right now, the Patriots could use as many draft picks as they can get their hands on.
Barring an injury to Drake Maye where Milton might be given an opportunity to play meaningful snaps, it could be difficult for Milton to improve upon his trade stock if he's limited to preseason action for the foreseeable future.
The season finale against Buffalo was in some ways a glorified preseason game with the Bills resting their starters ahead of the playoffs. But at least in that setting Milton was allowed to function as a starting quarterback against a defensive lineup full of rostered NFL players -- something that can be hard to come by in August.
The question is this: With how much might a quarterback-needy team be willing to part in order to acquire the still-unproven Milton?
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Theoretically, Milton could be brought aboard with another team lacking a clear-cut starter. But in all likelihood, teams looking for an immediate starter at the position would want a more ready-made contributor.
Teams with perhaps an aging starter or a starter they don't envision as a long-term option? Those might be better fits for Milton, who'd likely still need some development before being thrust into competing for a starting gig.
The Patriots also may find the number of suitors for Milton to be relatively small because trading away anything better than a seventh-round pick for Milton would be an acknowledgement by a front office that it missed on its initial assessment of Milton.
Though Milton's last performance was impressive, and while he plays the game's most important position, would that performance be enough for a team to part with a fourth or fifth-round pick?
Maybe not. But there's always the possibility that a team falls in love with Milton's ability and does something unexpected.
"Never say never," said the AFC executive when it came to the possibility of the Patriots landing a mid-round selection for Milton. "But if he's a seventh-round pick, I'm not sure one game elevates him to being worth a fourth or fifth-round pick a year later."
Perhaps the Patriots could end up packaging Milton along with a pick in order to improve the value of the return.
Would pairing Milton with a seventh, for instance, entice an interested team to give up its fifth? Or is there a player-for-player-and-pick deal that could be there for the making?
For example, would the Raiders and their new regime -- head coach Pete Carroll and general manager John Spytek can't say they whiffed on Milton in the draft a year ago -- entertain trading veteran wideout Jakobi Meyers for Milton if a Day 3 pick was also attached?
The Patriots also could wait to make it known that Milton is available until a team gets through the draft and doesn't land the young quarterback it had hoped for. Or perhaps there's an injury in training camp that makes a team desperate for whatever quarterback help it can get, and that's the right time for the Patriots to strike a deal.
Those types of discussions are worthwhile simply given that there's a chance Milton's league-wide value is as high as it'll ever be headed into Year 2.
He has three years remaining on his rookie deal. Unless he's able to establish himself as a proven commodity behind Maye, it could be hard for him to shake the label of physically-gifted backup any time soon. And with each season that passes, the closer Milton gets to free agency, the closer he gets to leaving Foxboro for nothing.
Keeping Milton -- particularly now with veteran backup Jacoby Brissett set to hit free agency -- would make sense for the Patriots in that they'd have a strong-armed passer waiting in the wings should anything happen to Maye.
But Milton isn't going to be The Guy in New England. Their starting quarterback job is spoken for. And this offseason should be all about asset management. If there's a meaningful return out there for the Patriots in a Milton trade, they'd have to consider it.