The question that I’m most often asked, or observe fans discussing, is when will the Utah Jazz be ready to contend for a title?
It’s a question that carries a ton of weight, requires context and also comes with the caveat that it’s obviously impossible to say whether the Jazz will ever win an NBA title or even be in a position to realistically contend for one.
Today I’m doing my best to give you a realistic and informed take on how far the Jazz are from trying to actually win games — a state of the union for the Utah Jazz, without rose-colored glasses or sugar coating.
The team is in it’s third losing season following the massive overhaul and while the fans have largely stuck around, there are some that are starting to experience tank fatigue. That’s understandable considering what the Jazz front office personnel can publicly say.
For example, they can’t come right out and say things like, “we were planning on being really bad but Lauri Markkanen was better than we anticipated.” Or, “we are tanking.” Or, “we will be tanking for at least three years.”
Instead, they have to say that they are always looking for ways to develop talent and win games. That they are “big game hunting.” They have to say things like that even if they know that the odds are against them or that they are flat out lying.
So what’s the truth? Where are the Jazz in terms of rebuilding toward a team that can legitimately compete?
The teardown
When the Jazz are referred to as a rebuilding team from those who are on the outside looking in, those who are on the inside are quick to make a correction to that narrative. The Jazz do not view the 2024-25 season as the third year of a rebuild. Instead, they see it as part of the teardown.
In their eyes, the rebuild hasn’t started.
The tearing down process obviously began with the departure of Quin Snyder and the trades that saw Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert moved to other teams. But a new coach and the departure of two All-Stars was not the down-to-the-studs renovation that the Jazz were looking to complete.
Utah Jazz head coach Quin Snyder talks to Donovan Mitchell during game against the Oklahoma City Thunder at the Vivint Smart Home Arena in Salt Lake City on Monday, March 11, 2019.| Kristin Murphy, Deseret News
And, as the Jazz were working toward a complete teardown, they were also faced with Markkanen’s ascendence as well as trying to make moves that could have a positive return on investment.
So they slowly moved on from Bojan Bogdanovic, Mike Conley, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Kelly Olynyk, Jarred Vanderbuilt and Simone Fontecchio, while paying a low price for John Collins and waiting to see what they had in Collin Sexton, Walker Kessler and Ochai Agbaji, and then later their three 2023 rookies.
During those first two seasons of the teardown, the Jazz did flirt with the idea of bringing in high-tier players, but the 2025 draft always had an appeal that the Jazz knew they’d be interested in, and ultimately they struck out on some deals but also decided that their future would be better served through the lottery.
Then, 2024 brought in three more rookies. At this point, the Jazz already knew that the plan for this season was to lose as many games as possible and the injury report has reflected that. But the Jazz are trying to spin a lot of plates.
They want to lose games, make sure that they’re getting the most out of Markkanen and continuing to develop his game as well as Kessler’s, while making sure that they are pushing their youngest players to see what kind of untapped potential might be hidden.
They also don’t want the young players to have a skewed view of NBA culture, so you want to add enough veterans who the youngsters can look up to while also feeling like they have room to grow. Meanwhile, they’re trying to find role-playing building blocks that show enough flashes that make the Jazz feel confident, but not so much that the team wins games.
Oh, and if the young players aren’t working out, hopefully they can be coached into playing well enough that they can be used in trades down the road. And all of this has to be done while paying attention to draft capital, CBA changes and league-wide movement.
Duke's Cooper Flagg reacts after a play during game against Wake Forest in Durham, N.C., Monday, March 3, 2025.
Duke's Cooper Flagg reacts after a play during game against Wake Forest in Durham, N.C., Monday, March 3, 2025.| AP
There was some concern entering the 2024-25 season that the Jazz’s young talent might pop a little too much and that they would have a difficult time of tanking with Markkanen on the roster. Well, with the difficulty of the NBA learning curve and the manipulation of the injury reports, the Jazz have proven that they can tank through quite a bit when they put their collective minds to it.
That brings us to the present day, where the Jazz have dropped into a spot that is likely to ensure the best possible lottery odds heading into a draft with a player that is coveted by the entire league — Cooper Flagg.
But even if the Jazz were to strike gold in the lottery and make Flagg a Jazzman, that doesn’t mean that the rebuild is over. In fact, it might just be the beginning.
Next year
There are a vast number of people that make up an NBA front office, and that doesn’t even take into account the coaching staff, ownership and the ever-growing analytics and scouting departments. It should come as no surprise that with that many people, there are differing opinions on what is the best course of action.
The variables that will impact what course the Jazz take next season are as follows: the Jazz’s 2026 draft pick, which is top-eight protected; who the Jazz get in the 2025 draft; what happens with top-tier players around the league over the next calendar year.
Let’s start with what many view as the best case scenario — the Jazz getting the No. 1 overall pick in 2025 and selecting Cooper Flagg.
A starting lineup that features Flagg, Kessler and Markkanen sounds pretty incredible when thinking about future potential. But is that going to be a starting lineup that would win too many games? That’s a real fear, because the Jazz don’t want to give up their 2026 first-rounder.
AJ Dybantsa, the nation's No. 1 basketball recruit, is presented at halftime of the BYU and Fresno State game at the Marriott Center in Provo on Wednesday, Dec. 11, 2024.| Scott G Winterton, Deseret News
I want to be clear here, the Jazz absolutely want to have another high draft pick in 2026. With players like AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson and Cameron Boozer all looking like future stars, there’s good reason for the Jazz to want to lose a lot of games next season.
And they want to.
The only thing that could keep the Jazz from tanking next season would be a wildly huge move, like Devin Booker, Jayson Tatum or another top-tier player becoming available. Though those things are possible (let’s not forget we saw Luka Doncic traded this year), they’re not likely.
So, then we look at what happens if the Jazz get Flagg but are too good to tank. The Jazz would obviously try to injury report their way into losses again, but keeping Flagg might require trading Markkanen or Kessler, and the Jazz already know that there is a market for both players and that teams will be willing to pay a pretty good price.
I’m not saying that the Jazz are definitely looking to trade either one of those guys. But it wouldn’t shock me if they did should they land Flagg. Of course, if they don’t get Flagg, they can probably massage their way through another tanking season without trading Markkanen or Kessler. Probably.
As things stand today, if the Jazz make it through the 2025-26 season and they get a couple of top draft picks, they will be ready to start making moves to bring in players that will help them win a title.
It probably makes next season the first true year of the rebuild after the teardown. That would mean the 2026-27 season would be the second year of the rebuild and I think the Jazz would like to start winning games in that second year of the rebuild.
The current roster
Part of the rebuilding process that Jazz fans are becoming intimately familiar with is evaluating young prospects.
Outside of the rare few top-tier players that are clearly on a different level right out of the draft, most players fall into three categories: future foundational pieces; role/bench players; non-NBA players. That’s not a very nice way of putting it, but it’s the truth.
Of the Jazz’s young players, the Jazz feel like they have found a foundational player in Kessler. There are other players on the roster that are in one category now, but could move up or down into a different category as the Jazz continue their evaluation.
Utah Jazz forward John Collins (20) and center Walker Kessler (24) high-five after Kessler made a dunk to put the Jazz ahead of the Minnesota Timberwolves at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City on Friday, Feb. 28, 2025. Kessler could play a major role in the Jazz's future plans.| Isaac Hale, Deseret News
For example, Keyonte George was viewed as a possible foundational piece early on, but is now seen as a bench player. Brice Sensabaugh might have been seen as a possible bench player, but he looks more like a player who won’t be able to stick in the NBA. Both players still have a chance to change what the team believes they are capable of, but at some point, they will have to make a final decision.
Isaiah Collier, who is currently the Jazz’s starting point guard, is being given every chance to show that he can be a foundational piece, but is currently regarded as a future backup guard. Kyle Filipowski is also someone the Jazz can see as a bench player with potential for more.
Ultimately, the jury is out on most of these players but especially Cody Williams and Taylor Hendricks, who seem to have the most upside of all of the Jazz’s young players. Williams hasn’t even played in 40 NBA games yet and Hendricks has missed all of this season with a broken leg.
Since time is the only thing that will give these players the best chance, they’re fortunate that the Jazz are still early in the rebuilding process. Time is on their side.
The Jazz have three players whose contracts are not guaranteed for next season — Johnny Juzang, Svi Mykhailiuk and K.J. Martin — of those players, Martin is probably the only one that could be returning next year.
John Collins, Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton are all on expiring deals next season. So, the Jazz will have some options when it comes to how to handle things.
They could let them all expire and have a ton of cap space open at the end of the 2025-26 season (if Kessler is still around, his extension will take up some of that space). They could also choose to trade any one or all of these players.
There are reasons to argue that Sexton and Collins could potentially be role players and part of a future Jazz team that plays to win, but for the Jazz, the deciding factor will be how much it costs to retain their services. Clarkson, who will be 34 next summer, does not fit the Jazz’s timeline.
Markkanen is the most intriguing and most important person currently on the Jazz roster. The good news is that he is a really, really good player who we know can play at an All-Star level and so far hasn’t been bothered enough by the rebuild to want to go anywhere else. He loves being in Utah and he believes in what the team is doing.
But Markkanen’s future, like so many players around the league, is not completely in his control. It might wholly depend on how the Jazz fare in the upcoming draft and what else is going on around the league.
The Jazz would love to keep Markkanen and have him be a part of the long-term plans in Utah. It’s just a matter of whether their hand is forced or if they can maintain the rebuild with him on the roster.
Utah Jazz forward Lauri Markkanen (23) dribbles the ball down the court during a game against the Miami Heat at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City on Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025. Time will tell where the former All-Star fits into the Jazz's future plans.| Brice Tucker, Deseret News