HomeNewsTropical forests in the Americas are struggling to keep pace with climate change
Tropical rainforests play a vital role in global climate regulation and biodiversity conservation. However, a major new study led byDr.Jesús Aguirre-Gutiérrez from the University of Oxford’s Environmental Change Institute (ECI), reveals that forests across the Americas are not adapting quickly enough to keep pace with climate change, raising concerns about their long-term resilience.
The research involved over 100 scientists and localpartners analysing data from 415 permanent forest plots spanning Mexico to southern Brazil. By examining the traits of more than 250,000 trees, the team assessed howdifferent species are responding to shifting temperatures and rainfall patterns.
Tropical forests are among the most diverse ecosystems on Earth, yet their ability to adapt to climate change is limited.... If we know what species of trees are doing better or worse, and what set of traits they have, then we know what they can withstand. It will help inform what conservation actions should be encouraged and where funding should beallocated.
Dr.Jesús Aguirre-Gutiérrez, Environmental Change Institute
Key Findings:
Survival strategies vary: Some tree species are thriving while others struggle. Traits such asbeingdeciduous,wood density, leaf thickness, and drought tolerance influence a tree’s ability to survive in a changing climate.
Future risks: By 2100, temperatures in the region could rise by up to 4°C, with rainfall decreasing by as much as 20%. This could push tropical forests further out of balance, making them more vulnerable to extreme climate events.
Dr Jesus Aguirre Gutierrez, University of OxfordDr Jesus Aguirre Gutierrez
Dr. Aguirre-Gutiérrez explained: 'Tropical forests are among the most diverse ecosystems on Earth, yet their ability to adapt to climate change is limited. Understanding which traits help trees survive can guide conservation efforts and policy decisions. Given the changes inclimate we haveobserved over the last 40 to 50 years, you might think there have also been lots of changes in the tree communities in tropical rainforests. But some of these changes are too small and too slow toactually adapt to the observed changes in climate.
'By looking at individual trees from different communities, we found some have suffered due to climate shifts, while others have thrived. We can study the characteristics, also known as 'tree traits', of those that have survived, as well as new individuals joining the communities and those that have died, to understand what makes them react differently to a changing climate.'
He added: 'If we know what species of trees are doing better or worse, and what set of traits they have, then we know what they can withstand. It will help inform what conservation actions should be encouraged and where funding should beallocated.'