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The 2025 Bundestag election: a turning point for Germany and Europe

In almost every election campaign we hear phrases like ‘this election is the most important election’ or ‘this election matters’. Rarely has this been truer than in the most recent Bundestag (parliamentary) election of 23 February 2025. The importance of the election to Germans is reflected in the high turnout of 82.5% – the last time turnout was this high, there was still a wall separating West and East Germany. But the German election and a new German government – probably under the chancellorship of Friedrich Merz – will also have a major impact on the changing world and Europe.

The results, though widely expected, have set the stage for a new political landscape in Germany, and possibly in Europe. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), emerged victorious with 28.52% of the vote. This result puts Merz, the CDU’s top candidate, in a strong position to replace Olaf Scholz as Chancellor.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) made significant gains, coming in second with 20% of the vote. The Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), led by Olaf Scholz, secured 16.41% of the vote, a significant drop compared to the last election. The two other coalition parties of the previous government, the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), also suffered significant losses, with the FDP failing to even pass the 5% threshold to gain any seats in the new Bundestag. The Left Party, already on the verge of political collapse, entered the Bundestag with 8.77%. A new party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a pro-Russian offshoot of the Left Party, missed entering the Bundestag by only about 13,000 votes.

This means that, as is usual in Germany, no single party can form a government on its own. As the CDU/CSU has ruled out a coalition with the AfD, it is expected that the CDU/CSU and SPD will form another coalition. This is historically known as a ‘grand coalition’ and – if the AfD is excluded – is the only possible two-party arrangement for a government.

**Three lessons from the elections**

1. **The rise of the AfD:** the AfD is on the rise. In eastern Germany, the party won almost half the vote in many regions and almost all constituencies. In western Germany, the AfD has not yet been able to win any constituencies outright, but it is making significant gains in former industrial regions such as Gelsenkirchen or Bremerhaven. It is interesting to note that despite the CDU/CSU’s clear stance on migration, which is a key issue for many AfD voters, the AfD has not lost any net votes to the CDU/CSU. It is also interesting that AfD voters are significantly more likely to vote at the polling station than by post; for the other parties, the proportion of votes cast at the polling station and by post is roughly the same.

> It is also interesting to note that Elon Musk’s strong pre-election campaign did not result in the AfD making significant gains in Germany

* **The influence of social media:** the election showed that social media can have a significant impact on an election, even in the short term. The Left Party gained significant votes through a social media campaign with its empathetic lead candidate Heidi Reichinnek, who appealed particularly to young women and was very active on TikTok. The Left Party’s highest share of the vote was among voters aged 24 and under. It is also interesting to note that Elon Musk’s strong pre-election campaign did not result in the AfD making significant gains in Germany. Prior to the election, Elon Musk had conducted an interview with the AfD’s top candidate, Alice Weidel, on the social media platform X and had repeatedly spoken in favour of the party.

1. **Voting behaviour by age group:** it can be argued that older people in Germany saved the centre – because it was mainly they who voted for the parties of the democratic centre. Younger people tended to vote for the parties on the fringes: the AfD and the Left. It is striking that young women voted disproportionately for the Left, while young men voted disproportionately for the AfD.

**Three expectations for Europe and the world after the elections**

Although the coalition negotiations have not yet begun, three important points can already be made:

1. **Uncertain future for the AfD:** the far-right AfD continues to gain votes in Germany, especially in the east. In western Germany, the AfD has also been able to achieve high election results, particularly in socially disadvantaged areas – often at the expense of the SPD. The established parties must find a way to convince voters to vote for a democratically-oriented party again. This will be a particular challenge because many AfD voters argue on a different factual basis (such as that conveyed through social media), and no longer believe the established media.

> Europe must organise its own defence and spend money on it

1. **Strong leadership for Germany:** Germany, together with France and Poland, will have to play a strong leadership role. This is necessary in view of the changing security situation and the increased focus of the US on its own interests. Europe must organise its own defence and spend money on it. Ursula von der Leyen has already announced that the EU’s debt rule will be suspended, Germany is also debating whether to relax the debt brake or set up a special defence fund. However, as the centrist democratic parties no longer have the two-thirds majority required for a constitutional amendment, it is questionable how this can be done. It is even possible that the old Bundestag will be asked to vote on these issues in order to secure the necessary two-thirds majority. The CDU/CSU have so far argued against relaxing the debt brake in order not to overburden future generations with repayments.

2. **Tightening the rules on migration**: Germany will no longer accept being the destination country for European migration. There will be a tightening of migration regulations, possibly based on the Danish model. Friedrich Merz has announced that on the first day of his chancellorship, he will have the borders to all neighbouring European countries controlled again, and turn back people without valid entry documents at the border.

The Bundestag elections in 2025 thus mark a turning point in German and European politics. A new government under the likely Chancellor Friedrich Merz will have major tasks to tackle: the changed security situation and Russia’s war of aggression call for greater efforts in the field of defence, migration must be managed sensibly, right-wing extremism must be combated and climate change is also progressing. There will also be questions about where the money will come from.

_The views expressed in this #CriticalThinking article reflect those of the author(s) and not of Friends of Europe._

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