A graphic of the United States with a red area outlining Southeast New Mexico and West Texas highlighting a critical fire weather risk.
The fire weather risk according to the Storm Prediction Center. Image via NOAA.
Southeast New Mexico and a portion of western Texas have been outlined as a “critical fire weather” area for Friday, March 7, 2025, according to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center. The SPC estimates that more than 500,000 people are under this critical fire weather risk.
A critical risk means winds are sustained at least 20 miles per hour (32 kph), relative humidity is below 15%, and temperatures are at or above 50 to 60 degrees Fahrenheit (10 to 16 C), dependent on the season, for at least three straight hours.
Friday’s fire weather
The forecast across southeast New Mexico and western Texas for Friday sees a cold front sweeping through. Rather than bringing much-needed rain for this part of the country, it will push in dry air. In addition to the cold front, another low pressure area will develop near the New Mexico/Texas border. Both of these will contribute to strong, gusty winds up to 20 to 30 miles per hour (32 to 48 kph), along with relative humidity values in the single digit percentages.
The National Weather Service has issued Red Flag Warnings for these areas. A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either already happening or are expected to happen soon, and fire can get out of control easily.
An infographic from the NWS in Odessa/Midland Texas describing the red flag warning
Image via National Weather Service.
What is relative humidity?
Relative humidity is a key part of this wildfire risk. But in order to talk about relative humidity, we need to first discuss what humidity is. Humidity is the measure of moisture in the air. It’s typically measured using the dew point (the temperature at which air can’t hold any more water vapor, and the vapor turns into liquid dew or condensation). In general: the higher the dew point, the higher the humidity, and the lower the dew point, the lower the humidity.
Relative humidity still measures moisture in the air. But it measures the amount of moisture in the air as a percentage of the maximum amount of moisture the air can possibly hold at the current temperature. If the air is completely saturated (when it has the maximum amount of moisture it can hold at that temperature) the relative humidity is 100%.
In a fire weather situation, the relative humidity will be much lower, less than 15%. So the air is only holding onto that much moisture. With low moisture and strong winds, surrounding vegetation dries out quickly and becomes kindling for fires, which can quickly get out of control under such conditions.
Two people in shadow looking at the orange glow of a wildfire.
Image via Recep Tayyip Çelik/ Pexels.
West Texas drought is increasing fire weather risk
West Texas is not only dealing with critical fire weather, but it is also dealing with a D4 (exceptional) drought.
This drought covered just over 3% of the state of Texas by the beginning of October 2024, and had increased to 7.69% as of Tuesday, March 4, 2025. While some parts of the state have received precipitation in recent weeks, the current summary of the drought, issued weekly by the University of Nebraska-Lincoln’s National Drought Mitigation Center, states:
Scattered drought degradations occurred in the western halves of Texas and Oklahoma, due to increasing precipitation deficits and locally decreasing streamflow and soil moisture. Groundwater and reservoir levels continued to drop in central Texas in the San Antonio area amid very large precipitation deficits, leading to the development of a small area of exceptional drought. Similar conditions in southwest Texas led to the expansion of exceptional drought along the Rio Grande to the El Paso area.
These drought conditions are worsening the fire danger. Lack of rainfall means dry vegetation. And, as mentioned above, low humidity and strong winds will dry the vegetation out even more, allow flames to burn through more easily.
Forecasts currently call for drier-than-average conditions over the next month. While some rain is possible, it won’t be enough to bust the drought, which is expected to persist through at least the end of March.
A graphic showing the developing drought conditions across the state of Texas.
A visualization of the current drought in Texas. Image via the Drought Monitor/ National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln/ U.S. Department of Agriculture/ NOAA.
Wildfire safety
While wildfire safety is largely common sense, it’s important for us to remind ourselves about how to prevent fires from getting out of control, since humans are the number one cause of wildfires in the United States.
Monitor the weather. If there is any sort of critical fire risk, a Red Flag Warning, or even a local burn ban, refrain from building a campfire, using a fire pit, or burning debris of any kind.
Monitor your vehicles. If you’re towing something, make sure the chains aren’t dragging, as this can create a spark. Also, don’t park your vehicle on or near dry grass.
Discard your cigarette butts properly. Don’t throw them outside on the ground. Not only is that littering and harmful for the environment, it can start fires on dry vegetation.
Don’t be afraid to call 911. If you see a fire get out of control, or even if you inadvertently cause a wildfire, don’t be embarrassed to call 911. Better to get it under control early than wait too long.
Bottom line: There is a critical risk for wildfire weather today for parts of New Mexico and western Texas due to a combination of low relative humidity, strong winds and a lack of rain.
Read more: This Is Wildfire: Tips on preparing yourself and your home
Rachel Duensing
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About the Author:
Rachel Duensing is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist by the American Meteorological Society and is currently a meteorologist and climate reporter at CBS17 in Raleigh, North Carolina. Rachel has previously worked in Fort Myers, Florida and Carterville, Illinois. In addition to daily weather, she has covered tornado outbreaks, hurricanes, and extreme heat and cold. Rachel received her Bachelor of Science degree in Meteorology and Digital Media from Valparaiso University in Valparaiso, Indiana. While at Valpo, she was a member of the Valparaiso University Storm Intercept Team, and along with professors and classmates, chased tornadoes and severe weather across the United State's Great Plains and Midwest. Rachel grew up outside Chester, Illinois, a small town in the southern end of the state (nowhere near Chicago!). When she was only 10 years old, Rachel learned about weather in science class, and when those lessons were followed up by a tornado outbreak outside her town, she took it as a sign and has been in love with weather ever since! When not forecasting the weather or reporting on weather and climate, Rachel spends her time volunteering at a local cat shelter and watching hockey with her husband.