More than 20 percent of the 2024-25 regular season remains for the Atlanta Hawks, but it is safe project that Quin Snyder's team will participate in the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament in mid-April. To be clear, nothing is official to that end, but multiple projection systems peg the Hawks with more than a 95 percent chance to fall between the No. 7 and No. 10 spots in the East, thus sending Atlanta to a familiar position in a direct battle to make the playoffs.
While the ground can certainly shift over the next six weeks, it is not too early to take stock at the preferred — or not-so-preferred — opponents for the Hawks when the Play-In arrives.
The "Only Plausible If The Hawks Finish 9th" Group
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At this point, it is mathematically possible that a team between the Chicago Bulls, Philadelphia 76ers, Brooklyn Nets, or Toronto Raptors could finish above the No. 10 spot. With that said, it seems exceedingly unlikely and, if it happened, the Hawks might be the most likely team to fall to No. 10 anyway. As such, the Hawks would likely face one of these teams only if Atlanta stays in the No. 9 spot, and the matchups would all be somewhat favorable.
* **Chicago:** The Bulls have a multi-game lead on the other teams on this list, but Chicago has stayed in the No. 10 spot largely due to the inadequacies of other squads rather than actual success. The Bulls were weakened by pre-deadline trade activity, but Chicago also isn't totally void of talent. The Hawks did win the last two games against Chicago, but Atlanta and Chicago split the season series at 2-2, and the Bulls bounced the Hawks from the Play-in a year ago.
* **Brooklyn:** Everyone seems to know that the Nets should be tanking, except for Brooklyn's coaching staff and players. Of course, that is how it is supposed to work, but Jordi Fernandez has the Nets above their season-long projected win total before mid-March even arrives. Still, the Nets have lost a lot recently, and they aren't exactly overflowing with talent.
* **Philadelphia:** It has been the season from hell for the Sixers. There is no other way to put it. Joel Embiid is gone for the year, and even when Philly's better players are out there, the results have been dismal. Still, they do have some remaining star power.
* **Toronto:** The Raptors just swept the Magic to remain in the mix to some degree. It remains to be seen as to when Brandon Ingram might play but if the Raptors had their entire roster available, there is considerable talent. Toronto also beat Atlanta in two of three regular-season matchups.
Ultimately, the Hawks would probably choose (or at least should choose) to play any of these teams if they have the opportunity, at least when compared to Orlando and Miami. At the same time, Atlanta wants to avoid the No. 9 spot, and that is a bigger priority than which team the Hawks might see in the No. 9 vs. No. 10 battle.
The preferred opponent
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As established earlier, it would be easier to face the Sixers, Nets, Raptors, or Bulls, but Atlanta wants to aim higher and get into that No. 7 or No. 8 spot. If they do, the Hawks should prefer to see the Orlando Magic.
Orlando started the season 15-7 and seemed to be a threat to crash the top four in the East. Since then, the wheels have come off, including an active five-game losing streak, and Jalen Suggs is out for the season. The Magic simply aren't the same team without Suggs and, even with a top-flight defense, Orlando is playing like a Play-In team at best. A lot of that is tied to inefficient offense and poor shooting, with those factors ranking near the top of the list of why the Hawks would prefer Orlando.
The Magic and Hawks have split a pair of meetings this season, with two more still on the horizon. It isn't as if the Hawks would be big favorites over the Magic on a neutral court, but Atlanta seems to be more comfortable, really on both ends, against Orlando. Also, the Magic are a young team and the other option has a Hall of Fame coach and a lot more experience to deal with.
The one to avoid
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To be clear, none of the Play-In Contenders are _that_ scary this season. That is the nature of being in the Play-In after all. But when prompted with the question, the team to avoid is the Miami Heat.
Atlanta is actually 2-1 against Miami this season, but the most recent matchup was a 22-point loss that brought about memories of previous shortcomings. The Hawks have struggled against the Heat in playoff settings, and Trae Young has his lowest career scoring average (20.9 points per game) against Miami of any Eastern Conference opponent.
This is not your older brother's Miami team that may have the juice to make a deep playoff run. After all, Jimmy Butler is not walking through that door, and the underlying metrics for the 2024-25 Heat point to a .500 team at best. Still, Erik Spoelstra is a wizard, particularly in a postseason setting, and the Heat can still flummox opponents with versatility and scheme advantages.