GM Omar Khan made it clear that the Pittsburgh Steelers didn’t do enough last season at the wide receiver position. He didn’t rule out addressing the position with both a veteran acquisition and a draft pick. It seems likely that the Steelers will be adding to that room over the next week either via trade or free agency.
The veteran market has plenty of options at the moment, so I wanted to take a look at several of the top names and compare their stats against each other to sort out the cream from the crop.
To begin, below are the names we will be looking at today along with their basic 2024 stats, age, measurements, and most recent contract value. The first two on the list, Cooper Kupp and DK Metcalf, would need to be acquired via trade. The rest are free agents or pending ones and free to negotiate a new contract.
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The only receiver from this group who went over 1,000 yards last season was Davante Adams, though some of the others likely would have if not for injuries. Another notable aspect of this list is that the average age of the group is 30.5. Except for Metcalf, Godwin, and Slayton, the Steelers would be getting a receiver who is likely entering his final NFL contract.
Kupp, Allen, and Godwin have missed the most games over the last three seasons, but Godwin is the least concerning. Kupp and Allen are in their 30s and have consistently missed time in each of the last three seasons. Godwin mostly just missed a chunk last year due to a severe ankle dislocation.
Almost all of these players were paid at least $20 million or more on their most recent contracts. Due to age and 2024 production, that could drop for some of them, but the two cheapest options would likely be Slayton, Lockett, and probably Cooper. Allen would be pricey but not break the bank. The others would all be large-money investments.
With all of that basic information out of the way, let’s look at some advanced metrics to see how they have fared over the last two seasons.
WR targets Steelers
The Steelers have the big-play receiver, but do they have one who is consistently getting open? That was an issue last year, so ideally they can acquire a veteran who knows how to get open to help the quarterback out.
The above chart shows their average separation and yards per route run. Adams, Godwin, Allen, and Kupp all separate well and are efficient on a per-route basis. Cooper, Metcalf, and Slayton struggle to separate. Lockett, who used to be one of the best separators, is also starting to struggle in that area. Despite the lack of separation, Metcalf and Cooper still put up healthy efficiency with their yards per route run, suggesting they are successful on deep routes or contested catches.
Steelers WR targets
This chart plots the yards per reception versus their average yards after the catch (YAC). Metcalf, Slayton, and Cooper are gaining yards at a healthy clip on a per-reception basis. Metcalf and Slayton are gaining a good chunk of those after the catch while Cooper is not. Godwin leads the way in YAC while Lockett is generating very little after the catch.
Adams and Kupp are both generating more YAC than expected given the type of routes they are running based on their YPR.
Those last two charts have given us an idea of how often the receivers are getting open and how good they are with the ball in their hands, but what about actually catching the ball?
This chart shows contested-catch rates versus drop rates. Slayton is once again in a dubious spot on the chart with a drop rate of 10.45 percent over the last two seasons. He is also one of the worst of the bunch in contested catches, though I certainly wouldn’t have guessed that Metcalf would be dead last in the group for contested catches at his size.
Godwin is in a league of his own with the best drop rate of 2.1 percent and the second-best contested-catch rate of 54.7 percent. Cooper Kupp is also doing pretty well. For how much Allen is separating still, his contested catch rate is pretty impressive, though he’s dropping more passes than would be ideal.
The biggest disappointment on this chart is Davante Adams. He looked good in most of the other metrics, but he’s dropped a lot of passes and failed in contested catch scenarios recently, at least compared to the other receivers on this list.
Conclusions
Money aside, these stats show me that the splashiest option for the Steelers would be Chris Godwin. He gets open and catches almost everything thrown his way, including contested catches. He also dominates the YAC. At 29 years old, he still has plenty of time left to be an impact player for at least a few more years.
My personal preference is that the Steelers look at guys who can get open and create separation. Aside from Godwin, that would also include Davante Adams, Keenan Allen, and Cooper Kupp. Adams is the only player of that bunch that has been mostly healthy the last few seasons, but he’s also struggled with drops and contested catches.
Kupp would be expensive as he would need to be acquired via trade. He would cost draft capital and a pretty penny to take over some or all of his current contract. Otherwise, he sits in a good spot with all of those advances metrics. He is still getting open, catching the football, and creating YAC pretty well.
Adams has stated he would like to play in warm weather, but he was the most productive last season and he also has stated interest in playing for Mike Tomlin in the past. He would be expensive, but a definite upgrade, though I was surprised at his catch statistics in the final chart above.
If the Steelers don’t want to pursue Godwin, Allen might be the next-best option if you consider the likely contract size. His biggest knock is his health with 13 games missed over the last three seasons. But when he’s healthy, he separates well and excels in contested catch scenarios.
Lockett or Metcalf might make more sense if the Steelers retain Russell Wilson as their quarterback because of their past chemistry, but the advanced metrics don’t paint a good stroy for either of them. Metcalf doesn’t separate well or perform well in contested catch situations. That isn’t a good combination, and the Steelers don’t need another deep burner like Pickens unless Wilson sticks around. Especially at Metcalf’s price point, I am out.
Slayton would be one of the cheaper and younger options, but there is a reason for his expected price point. He was a bottom performer in almost every metric here other than yards after the catch and yards per reception. Do the Steelers really need that type of receiver in this room at the moment?
Cooper was one of the better receivers in the league just a couple years ago, but the last two years have been rough. The only area he really excels in anymore is contested catches. He could be a decent cheap addition if the Steelers bring back Wilson. Otherwise, he probably doesn’t make much sense.
Rankings
It’s tough to assign a ranking in a vacuum when the reality is there are a number of other factors. Who will the quarterback be? Lockett, Metcalf, Slayton, and even Amari Cooper could be bumped up the list a bit if Russell Wilson and his moon ball return to Pittsburgh.
Both of the trade options are further down the list for me, mostly because of what would be required in draft capital to trade for them as well as their current contract size. Kupp would be among the top options if he was a free agent, for example. Slayton, Cooper, and Lockett are either too similar to what the Steelers already have or they just wouldn’t move the needle enough to get excited about.
Is the juice worth the squeeze with some of these price tags?
All that said, here’s the list:
1. Chris Godwin
2. Davante Adams
3. Keenan Allen
4. Cooper Kupp
5. DK Metcalf
6. Darius Slayton
7. Amari Cooper
8. Tyler Lockett
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