We are a matter of days away from receiving a long-awaited resolution to the Sam Darnold situation, which has dominated the Minnesota Vikings news cycle and rumor mill for nearly two months now, dating back to the abrupt postseason ending to a magical 2024 season for Kevin O'Connell's team. Let's go over three major thoughts on the topic to set the stage for where things stand in the final days of speculation and uncertainty around Darnold's future.
The Vikings not using the franchise tag on Darnold was the first indication that the league-wide interest in his services might not be at the level one would expect considering the season he just had and the lack of other appealing quarterback options this offseason. If there were teams lining up to compete for Darnold, the Vikings might've been able to pull off a tag-and-trade maneuver to land themselves a Day 2 pick in this year's draft. That possibility was undoubtedly discussed at last week's NFL combine in Indianapolis, and there clearly wasn't enough demand to make that move worth the risk for GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah.
That doesn't mean Darnold won't still get a decently-sized contract from somebody once free agency opens. It does mean no one was willing to part with a draft pick for the right to take him on a one-year, $40 million deal and then sign him to a multi-year extension. Since the tag deadline passed, the buzz is that QB-needy teams — perhaps afraid of "the real Sam Darnold" being the guy who showed up in the final two games of the Vikings' season — aren't that interested in giving him a contract worth $40-plus million per year, which is the going rate for quality starting quarterbacks in today's game.
Frankly, that's rather baffling to me. Yes, it's just one year of big-time production for Darnold. Yes, he did it in an ideal quarterback environment headlined by O'Connell and Justin Jefferson. Yes, he fell apart a bit in the final two games of the season. But let's also remember what we're talking about here. Darnold is a former No. 3 overall pick who turns 28 this summer, has all the physical tools in the world, and is coming off a season where he was inarguably a top-eight quarterback in the league. He threw for 4,319 yards (fifth) and 35 touchdowns (fifth), posting a 102.6 passer rating (sixth) while leading the league in completions of at least 20 yards.
The NFL has never been shy about handing out huge, market-rate contracts to starting quarterbacks. Daniel Jones got $160 million over four years from the Giants after a 2022 season that wasn't close to the year Darnold just had. Kirk Cousins got $180 million from the Falcons last year — and he was coming off a torn Achilles at 35 years old. Jordan Love got $220 million from the Packers after one season as a starter where he put up slightly lesser numbers than Darnold's 2024. Is this really where teams are going to finally draw the line in the sand? And to do what instead — sign 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers or 36-year-old Russell Wilson? Try to win with Justin Fields? Pray that Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders are actually good?
That's why it really has surprised me to see these reports that Darnold's market is weaker than anticipated. Former NFL agent Joel Corry at CBS Sports has a sensible take on the matter:
"Nonetheless, the team-friendly three-year, $100 million contract — averaging $33,333,333 per year worth a maximum of $115 million through incentives — Baker Mayfield signed last March to remain with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers should be Darnold's reasonable worst-case scenario. The average salary for starting quarterbacks in 2024, excluding those on rookie contracts, was $40,887,398 per year, according to NFLPA data. Overall, Darnold was much better than average last season."
I still tend to believe one of the quarterback-needy teams out there is going to give Darnold at least $35 million per year, especially now that Adam Schefter has reversed course and said he thinks Sam ends up playing elsewhere next year. But all we can do is wait and see.
Earlier this week, the news that Darnold wasn't being tagged came with a concerted narrative push from various prominent insiders that suggested the Vikings are still in discussions with Darnold's camp on a deal to keep him in Minnesota. Really, it feels a lot like the Cousins situation last year. Minnesota may legitimately have interest in retaining their veteran starting quarterback, but it would have to be at their price. The question, as discussed above, is whether or not another team comes in and makes an offer that makes it an easy decision for Darnold — like the Falcons did with Cousins a year ago.
So what would be the number that would make sense for the Vikings? My personal opinion is that anything north of a one-year, $25 million deal isn't worth it. If Darnold really doesn't have the market we thought he'd have, and he wants to come back for another ride in Minnesota on that number, I can see that being enticing for the Vikings. They could continue to exercise patience with 22-year-old J.J. McCarthy, letting Darnold begin the season as the starter — and keep the job all year if he plays at least close to his 2024 level.
There would still be the potential awkwardness of fans calling loudly for McCarthy if Darnold struggles for even a game or two, plus the possibility of having a very expensive backup quarterback if he were to ever get benched. But in that scenario, the Vikings would be spending $30 million on a quarterback room of Darnold and McCarthy, which would be quite reasonable. Again, though, is there really not going to be a better offer for Darnold than one year and $25 million?
Another thing that has popped up as speculation during this whole rumor cycle is the idea that the Vikings could look to trade McCarthy if they sign Darnold to a multi-year deal. That one, I've gotta say, is completely and utterly ridiculous. There's just no realistic world in which the Vikings trade McCarthy. Not after drafting him tenth overall last year and then being thoroughly impressed by what they saw from him before he got hurt in his preseason debut.
After the injury, O'Connell said McCarthy had confirmed that the Vikings have their franchise quarterback in the building, and he's continued to express excitement over J.J.'s future this offseason. A trade just isn't happening. Think about it this way: the simplest path the Vikings have to being legitimate Super Bowl contenders for the first time since at least 2017 (maybe 2009, really) is McCarthy proving to be a great quarterback on a rookie contract. Why on earth would they throw that possibility away before even giving it a chance?
McCarthy is going to be the guy in Minnesota, it's just a question of whether his time comes this year or not. That's the main reason why I can't see the Vikings signing Darnold to anything beyond a one-year deal.
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