Latest Developments
Russia Bombards Ukrainian Infrastructure: Russia launched a massive missile and drone barrage into Ukraine on March 7, targeting Ukraine’s energy facilities in the Odesa, Poltava, Kharkiv, and Ternopil regions. The barrage included 43 cruise missiles, three Iskander ballistic missiles, and 194 drones. For the first time, French-made Mirage 2000 fighter jets joined U.S.-made F-16s to repel the attack, downing 34 missiles and 100 drones, according to Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ihnat.
Trump Warns Russia of Consequences: President Donald Trump said on social media, “Based on the fact that Russia is absolutely ‘pounding’ Ukraine on the battlefield right now, I am strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire and FINAL SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT ON PEACE IS REACHED.” The statement was the first to target Russia after a series of actions by the Trump administration against Ukraine, including the administration suspending all military aid and ending intelligence sharing with Ukrainian forces.
Europe Seeks to Rearm: The fallout from a disastrous meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on February 28 has galvanized European allies to explore how they can support Ukraine without relying on the United States. On March 6, French President Emmanuel Macron said that Europe needs to be ready to defend Ukraine without the United States and that France — one of two European Union states to possess nuclear weapons — was open to discussions of creating a nuclear deterrence umbrella over Europe. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Friday that “Poland must reach for the most modern capabilities also related to nuclear weapons and modern unconventional weapons” and announced that there were efforts underway to “prepare large-scale military training for every adult male.”
FDD Expert Response
“Ramping up economic pressure on Russia would increase Trump’s leverage to secure a durable peace deal. He should tighten sanctions on Russia’s oil revenue, including by targeting more of its tanker fleet. At the same time, Trump needs to resume military aid for Ukraine, which has clearly demonstrated its readiness for peace.” —John Hardie, Russia Program Deputy Director
“Trump’s statement is a welcome jolt to Ukraine peace talks, but Putin only bends to strength. Slapping higher tariffs on Russian goods sounds tough, but in reality, it’s small potatoes. U.S.-Russia trade in 2024 was a rounding error in global trade, amounting to only $3.5 billion. Tariffs won’t starve the Kremlin of meaningful revenue like an ironclad oil price cap and a crackdown on European purchases of Russian oil would. Now is the perfect time to hit Russia hardest on the energy sanctions front.” —Peter Doran, Adjunct Senior Fellow
“Tusk and Macron are correct to believe that this war is not going to stop at Ukraine. Putin has much larger ambitions, and he wants to show that the European Union and NATO are nothing more than paper tigers. Putin has been using sabotage activities in the Baltic states — which are NATO members — right below the threshold of war, daring the West to respond. Meanwhile, NATO and the European Union have not lifted a finger. Trump’s words are a step in the right direction, but Europe should not count on full American engagement and should do everything possible to support Ukraine.” —Ivana Stradner, Research Fellow
“Russia’s bombardment of Ukraine should remind the world that — while soldiers from both sides are dying in staggering numbers — only Ukrainian civilians have faced the consequences of deadly Russian drone and missile strikes since Russia’s invasion of Ukrainian territory three years ago. And while it’s important for European states to bolster their military preparedness and take more responsibility for their collective defense, the United States should be worried about miscalculations that threaten the expansion of the war to other European states, or worse, a breakdown in nuclear nonproliferation in Europe.” —Dmitriy Shapiro, Research Analyst and Editor
FDD Background and Analysis
“Getting the U.S. and Ukraine back on track,” by Clifford D. May
“What the suspension of US aid means for Ukrainian forces,” by John Hardie
“By halting Ukraine aid, Trump courts personal defeat,” by John Hardie and RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery
“How Germany’s new leader can make history,” by Ben Cohen
Issues:
Russia Sanctions and Illicit Finance Ukraine