In the latest Super Bowl, the Philadelphia Eagles showed the world that defenses can still win championships, as they steamrolled over the powerful — at least against the Buffalo Bills — Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes-led Kansas City Chiefs attack. The final score didn't do justice to how dominant the Eagles' defense was throughout the game, essentially only allowing the first Chiefs' points on the board when the game was already very under control.
With head coach Sean McDermott being a defensive specialist, I believe it's fair for Bills Mafia to expect way more from his defenses entering his ninth season with the franchise. They have been good to very good during the regular season most of the time, but no defense in football has allowed more points per game in elimination matchups in the last few years.
That’s alarming for a head coach who's been in command for such a long time, having invested time, draft capital, free-agency money, and all possible resources yet still not able to get the job done when it matters most.
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Obviously it's not all on McDermott, despite his being responsible for every component of the roster. General manager Brandon Beane has had his fair share of mistakes in identifying talent early in the draft (Boogie Basham, Kaiir Elam...), and the players themselves have to be held accountable for their lack of productivity.
That's why I'm yet again using the “Lofton Exercise" to evaluate the defensive side of the ball this time, after having done so with the offense in the first part of this two-article series. But what’s this "Lofton Exercise"?
In an appearance on “The Tim Graham Show” years ago, former Buffalo Bills great and NFL Hall of Fame wide receiver James Lofton talked about one simple exercise that former Chargers head coach Marty Schottenheimer used to ask from his staff after every season.
Lofton (a wide receiver coach back in the day) and the entire Chargers’ staff were asked to rank every player on the team in one of three tiers — players who can win games for us, players who we can win with, or players who simply aren’t good enough and we need better. Schottenheimer’s task to his coaches gave him a pretty straightforward assessment of his rosters every year, and now we can do the same with the Bills' defensive players.
Defensive Line: LE Greg Rousseau, DT Ed Oliver, DT DaQuan Jones, RE A.J. Epenesa
McDermott is always preaching how "everything starts in the trenches.” The investment made in this defensive line over the years shows the Bills have put their money where their mouths are.
Rousseau and Oliver are first-round picks, and Epenesa is a second-round selection. As mentioned before, the team also invested another second-round pick on Boogie Basham, who isn't with the team anymore. DaQuan Jones is a free-agency investment, and we've seen a bold move made there as well to bring in Von Miller, who isn't a starter any longer and there are real questions about how long he will be a Bill.
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Despite all the resources allocated to this group, I find it hard to say any of those names are players who can consistently win games for the Bills. Sure, Greg Rousseau and Ed Oliver have shown flashes of becoming that type of player. Even Epenesa shows it once or twice a season, and Jones was a force before his injury in 2023.
With that said, none of them can consistently enough win games on their own for Buffalo. Even worse, we've seen them fail miserably when it mattered the most, and against some questionable competition. Namely, against a Kansas City Chiefs offensive line that was dominated by the Philadelphia Eagles’ front, and the Cincinnati Bengals’ offensive line that had three backups starting against Buffalo in a playoff game a few years ago.
Again, some of those guys are good players. They just seem to be flawed ones who could be very good complementary pieces alongside a dominant force, but not the ones who can elevate others around them.
You can win with: Rousseau and Oliver
Need better: Jones and Epenesa
Linebackers: MLB Terrel Bernard, WLB Matt Milano
The supposed strength of the Bills’ defense, Bernard and Milano unfortunately haven't been able to play much together thanks to the veteran's injuries the last couple of years. When at their best, this duo is as good as any other available in the league. We just haven't been able to see much of them at their best.
Things aren't looking great moving forward, in my opinion. As much as I love Milano (who doesn't?), his injuries are becoming a constant as he gets older. He might be the next one, after Tre’Davious White, Jordan Poyer, and Micah Hyde, who might see himself leaving the team as it deals with cap decisions.
NFL: JAN 26 AFC Championship - Bills at Chiefs Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Despite looking better in the playoffs, Milano hasn't been the same "can win games for you" guy we're used to watching. He looked heavier and slower recently and, let's be honest, Dorian Williams was a tackling machine in his place this past season. To play a two-down role, I'm not sure it's a downgrade as the paper suggests.
Bernard might be one of the few players who can win games for the Bills in this defense. He's not perfect by any means, as his lack of size and bulk can get him in trouble when dealing with traffic.
With that said, defensive coordinator Bobby Babich and his defensive line can do a better job keeping Bernard free to do what he does best — diagnose plays and fly all over the field looking for the ball. His plays against the Chiefs to close the game in the regular season, against the Houston Texans to give the Bills a last chance, and against the Baltimore Ravens forcing a fumble and recovering it when Buffalo needed it badly, show how impactful he can be on any given Sunday. Add his leadership and knowledge of the game, and we have a "can win games for you" guy.
Can win games for you: Bernard
You can win with: Milano (and Williams)
Cornerbacks: CB Christian Benford, CB Rasul Douglas, NCB Taron Johnson
Another group that looks good on paper, but isn't as good or dependable as it once was.
Starting with the veteran, Douglas was one of the biggest disappointments last season. After starting his Bills career on fire in 2023, he looked slow and washed up in 2024. Douglas is big, physical, and can tackle, for sure. However, he isn't a fit for the man schemes the Bills are trying to incorporate more and more, and he doesn't have the foot speed to run and cover quicker receivers. Also, his play-making skills in zone coverage, where he used to be a ball-hawk, gambling and often making game-changing plays when reading opposing QB's eyes, weren't happening last season. I'd be very surprised if the Bills elect to bring him back.
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Opposite Douglas, Benford has flourished into a very good CB1, arguably a "can win games for you" guy. I'd like to see him survive an entire season without getting nicked up or having to leave the field in the most important game of the year. It's unlucky, but "availability is the best ability” — and Benford has struggled with it. Considering it's been his first season playing at a very high level and his struggles to stay healthy, it's hard for me to have him as a "can win games for you" lock, even though he's certainly entering this zone.
Taron is unique with what he offers the team and with how well he's able to play in the box, sometimes essentially as a linebacker, and then a play later cover a wide receiver downfield and make plays on the ball. He deserves the status of a "can win games for you" guy.
Can win games for you: Johnson
Can win with: Benford
Need better: Douglas
Safeties: FS Damar Hamlin, SS Taylor Rapp, S Cole Bishop
Damar Hamlin is a great story; I still can't believe how he could go through all he did and then suit up and tackle players as he does so frequently. He's also a late-round pick that the team could develop into a starter, becoming the longest-tenured safety on the team.
With that said, Hamlin is extremely limited as an athlete, lacking speed to cover opposing threats, and lacking the size to be a real asset in the box. The most recent playoffs showed the Bills can't be serious about winning with Hamlin as their starter.
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Rapp isn't the fastest safety in the world, either. With that said, we're talking about an experienced Super Bowl winner who knows how to use his physical tools to play the position. Unlike Hamlin, Rapp is a sure tackler, one of the best tackling defensive backs in the league, and we saw him save the Bills on several opportunities where opposing running backs were able to break free through the two first levels of the defense, just to be stopped by Rapp as the last man available to do so.
Add his experience, communication skills, leadership, and knowledge of the defense and he’s a guy who I can see Buffalo winning with. However, his physical style results in injuries more often than not, so it’s necessary to have a good backup plan in place when you rely on Rapp as a full-time starter.
Cole Bishop is, in my opinion, the best and most complete safety on the team already. He should start moving forward and, in fact, should’ve been the starter for quite some time now. A good offseason will surely help, as his head coach made some comments about adding strength as a must for the second-year safety.
Overall, I believe the Bills are fine with Bishop and Rapp as starters, but it’s necessary to have another young player with the potential to back up Rapp and, in time, surpass him on the depth chart.
You can win with: Bishop, Rapp
Need better: Hamlin
Final Thoughts
After looking at the Bills’ main defensive players, the case can be made that one to three starters are players who, at their best, can win games for the team. However, they’re not locks at this point (at least not the same way Josh Allen is at quarterback, for example), and less-than-ideal performances around them can bring them down a tier more often than I’d like to see.
NFL: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images
Six to eight players are in the “you can win with” group. That’s not bad, as those guys are needed and can even have a bigger impact as long as the tier one guys are, in fact, impacting the game as they should. Also, not having the bottom-tier guys messing up helps.
Three to four starters were ranked in the bottom tier, where the Bills need better production. You can’t be an elite defensive team with four players in this tier. Replacing them with younger talent is a must.
It’s extremely clear to me that this unit needs an injection of game-changing talent. Overall, it’s a group of good players who , when playing their schemes perfectly, can impose themselves against mid-tier and less-talented teams in the league.
However, when the level of competition is higher, the lack of star power shows, and it’s been a huge problem in the team’s last few opportunities in the playoffs. Also, the three slots where the team needs better are consistently exposed in those situations, limiting what can be called and done on defense, schematically wise.
If on the offensive side of the ball, Josh Allen is a surefire superstar who’s able to carry the load, and then James Cook and the offensive line are in the conversation as guys who can win games for you, on the defensive side it’s not the same. The tier one guys here aren’t as impactful as Allen is, and half of the defensive line being lackluster, without a single true dominant force there to make things easier for others, hurt the defensive unit badly.
One true difference maker is needed on that side of the ball, or more guys with potential so this defense can become another “everybody eats” type of group.
Catch up with all this and more with the latest edition ofLeading the Charge!