With Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping creating a world in which might is right, any hard-headed and sober analysis of the UK’s best path forward would conclude that it should rejoin the European Union
So much is going on in global affairs right now that, by the time this article is published, a matter of hours after being written, it could easily be out of date! It’s not just that events are shifting in ways few were prepared for, they are shifting at a pace that is leaving many policymakers gasping for breath.
So, as we assess in a hard-headed way what the shifting global and domestic dynamics mean for post-Brexit Britain, it’s worth stepping back to reflect on how we got to this new and dangerous era of geopolitical competition.
Cast your mind back to 2023, when Chinese President, Xi Jinping was visiting his ally Vladmir Putin in Moscow. As he was departing the Kremlin, the Secretary General of the Chinese Communist Party said: “Right now there are changes – the likes of which we haven’t seen for 100 years – and we are the ones driving these changes together.” The Russian dictator responded: “I agree.” Well, they must feel that they have just had a pretty good week.
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Vladimir Putin was delighted when the UK voted for Brexit (Picture: Justin Tallis)Vladimir Putin was delighted when the UK voted for Brexit (Picture: Justin Tallis)
Vladimir Putin was delighted when the UK voted for Brexit (Picture: Justin Tallis) | AFP via Getty Images
Putin’s track record of death and destruction
Putin’s Russia has been a menace to the global order during his entire time in office. Back in 2008 he started a war in South Ossetia, in Georgia, and strengthened his grip on another region, Abkhazia, further destabilising a country that he still considers to be his plaything. Later, in 2014, he made his first military foray into Ukraine, attempting to meddle in elections (having poisoned Ukraine’s leader during the 2004 elections), annexing Crimea and starting a war in Ukraine’s Donbas, ahead of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.
In Syria he was an ally of the now deposed Bashar al-Assad, with his forces carrying out egregious war crimes across the country. In Africa, the private military contractor, the Wagner Group – sponsored by the Russian state and now operating under the name Africa Corps – continues to pillage the continent’s mineral wealth leaving a trail of devastation and destruction.
His agencies continue to meddle in democratic elections across the world, most famously in the 2016 US election. In Romania, the recent presidential election was annulled by a court due to the huge levels of Russian interference that saw a completely unknown pro-Putin candidate come out of nowhere and, after a sophisticated state-sponsored influence campaign by Russia, win the election. It will now be re-run.
Russian interference in UK
The UK is not exempt, and we don’t need to look too far back to see the hand of Russian meddling in our own discourse, elections and institutions. Whether it was the poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko in 2006, the Salisbury attack in 2018 or the Russian interference uncovered by the Intelligence and Security Committee’s Russia Report in 2020, the UK is an active theatre for the Kremlin.
Putin, like Xi, has never hidden the fact that he does not like the post-war, international rules-based order including organisations that bring democracies together like the EU. That’s why his government, military and mercenaries spend every day seeking to assault and undermine it. And they are having some success.
In Britain, Putin’s most successful campaign has undoubtedly been Brexit. The UK sitting outside of the European Union is in Moscow’s strategic interests especially during a period when the US is disengaging and Europe stepping up.
It removed those of us living here out of a democratic, prosperous institution of 500 million people, making the UK more isolated than at any time since the 1940s. Now, as the world is re-ordering itself at the whims of Donald Trump, the UK is diminished on the international stage with limited influence.
Putin loves Brexit
Brexit created political division and distraction, serving Putin's long-standing strategy of weakening Western alliances. The years of Brexit negotiations consumed diplomatic bandwidth that might otherwise have been directed toward addressing Russian aggression, developing stronger European defence capabilities and deterring Russia in ways we can now only hope to catch up.
Don’t be in any doubt, Putin loves Brexit.
Remaining outside the EU means we lack formal input into EU security policy at a time when European unity against Russian aggression is essential. It is welcome that the Prime Minister attended the recent EU Council meeting and the dialogue is moving in a positive direction on issues such as a youth mobility scheme – although this will always be small beer when compared to the benefits we enjoyed as a full member state.
The EU provides security in areas like energy and food and drink and is an increasingly important hard security actor with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen this week announcing an 800-billion-euro (about £672bn) rearmament programme.
No time for political timidity
In a world where Putin continues to exploit divisions in democratic states, and where big power politics is back, it is clearly in Scotland and the UK’s strategic interest to rejoin the bloc of EU nations. Whether it’s on security cooperation, setting rules and standards for emerging tech, tackling climate change or irregular migration, it makes sense for us to be in the room on the same terms as everyone else, with the full voting rights that come with membership status.
As Trump, Putin and Xi seek to shape the world in their image, where might is right and transactional politics replaces a rules-based order, this isn’t the time for timid political thinking.
The answer to these challenges does not sit in one European democracy but rather how we work collectively across our continent. There will be some who will try and strangle the idea at birth, but rejoining the EU must be on the table as we navigate the future.
Any hard-headed and sober analysis of how Britain should best equip itself for the uncertain times ahead could only conclude that rejoining is inevitable. We mustn’t be afraid of making that case, because if we don’t shape what’s to come, then others will do it for us.
Stephen Gethins is the MP for Arbroath and Broughty Ferry