The willingness of European leaders to ignore Donald Trump’s mendacity and humiliate themselves with displays of fealty to the American president on live television can be explained in two words: nuclear umbrella.
The implosion of the transatlantic relationship over the past two weeks has policy makers across Europe wondering if they can still count on the nuclear shield, which has served as the foundation of their security for decades.
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As they say in America, if you have to ask, you already know the answer’.
That’s particularly true for the Baltic countries, which are rightly concerned that Trump would not be willing to enter into a nuclear confrontation with Russia over a region smaller than Oklahoma.
Given the threat Russia poses with its stockpile of nearly 6,000 warheads, Europe has no choice to but to invest in expanding the continent’s nuclear capabilities. At the moment, only the UK and France have nuclear weapons. But their total arsenal – 550 warheads – is dwarfed by Russia’s and cannot replace the roughly 5,200 in America’s stocks.
French President Emmanuel Macron signaled this week that Paris might be willing to extend its nuclear deterrent to the rest of Europe. Even if that happens, it won’t be enough.
“That’s not going to scare away Putin,” says Maximilian Terhalle, a German military and security expert who has done extensive research on Europe’s nuclear capabilities. “We need a new way forward.”
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The problem is deeper than just the number of bombs. To begin, the British arsenal is dependent on American technology and collaboration, making the French Europe’s only option for building an independent alternative. An even bigger issue is that both countries are heavily reliant on American reconnaissance, via US intelligence’s giant network of satellites.
Fixing these shortcomings will take years, if not decades. A big hurdle will be Germany, which needs to abandon its aversion to all things nuclear and acknowledge just how exposed Europe now is. It’s only a matter of time before Putin or another Russian leader takes advantage of Europe’s weak defenses.
Berlin will have no choice but to respond with what Terhalle calls “harsh Realpolitik”.
The old world order is dead and Europe is alone. The choice for Europe’s leading nations is simple: Go nuclear or perish.
See the original of this opinion brief for Euractiv by its Editor in Chief Matthew Karnitschnig here.