Keywords: 2050
A recent study predicts that by 2050, more than half of the world’s adults (3.8 billion people) and one-third of all children and teenagers (746 million) will be overweight or obese.
This could lead to serious health problems and increase the risk of early death.
The study, published in The Lancet, warns that if urgent action is not taken, the world will face an unprecedented health crisis.
A Rapid Increase Over the Last 30 Years
The number of overweight and obese people has increased dramatically over the past three decades. In 1990, around 731 million adults and 198 million children and teenagers were affected.
By 2021, these numbers had jumped to 2.11 billion adults and 493 million young people. The study predicts that childhood obesity will increase by 121% globally, reaching 360 million children and teenagers by 2050. This rapid rise highlights the need for immediate action.
Professor Emmanuela Gakidou from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) described the situation as a “monumental failure” in public health efforts. She emphasized that governments and health experts must use this data to identify the most affected groups and take action to prevent further increases.
How the Study Was Conducted
Researchers analyzed data from 204 countries between 1990 and 2021 and used this information to predict trends up to 2050. They studied different age groups and adjusted for factors like self-reported data inaccuracies. The study mainly used Body Mass Index (BMI) as a measurement. According to BMI:
A person is overweight if their BMI is between 25 and 30.
A person is considered obese if their BMI is 30 or higher.
More Than Half of Adults Will Be Overweight or Obese by 2050
In 2021, nearly half of the world’s adults (about 1 billion men and 1.11 billion women) were overweight or obese. Obesity rates more than doubled from 1990 to 2021 for both men (5.8% to 14.8%) and women (10.2% to 20.8%). Some regions, such as Oceania and North Africa, already have very high obesity rates.
If current trends continue, obesity rates among adults will increase significantly by 2050. The highest increases are expected in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa due to population growth and changing lifestyles. By 2050, an additional 1.69 billion adults will be overweight or obese, bringing the total to 3.8 billion.
Countries like China, India, and the U.S. are expected to have the highest numbers of affected adults, but sub-Saharan Africa will see the most dramatic rise—more than a 250% increase from 36.6 million in 2021 to 141 million in 2050.
In some countries, obesity rates will be extremely high. For example, in the United Arab Emirates and Nauru, more than 80% of men are predicted to be obese by 2050.
Obesity in Young People Is Increasing Faster
Between 1990 and 2021, the percentage of overweight and obese children and teenagers more than doubled. In 2021, 493 million young people were overweight, and 174 million were obese. The study predicts that, by 2050, more children will be obese rather than just overweight, especially in North Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America.
The number of obese young people will rise sharply in countries like Nigeria, India, Brazil, China, and the U.S. In some small Pacific Island nations like Nauru, Tonga, and the Cook Islands, obesity rates among young people are expected to reach 60-70%.
Dr. Jessica Kerr from Murdoch Children’s Research Institute stressed that it is still possible to slow down the rise in obesity if action is taken now.
She suggested that health experts focus on prevention, especially in regions where children are currently just overweight but at risk of becoming obese. Without action, the rise in obesity will lead to serious health conditions and higher healthcare costs in the future.
Why Obesity Is a Major Concern
Obesity increases the risk of serious health problems, including type 2 diabetes, high blood pressure, heart disease, and some cancers. The study also found that younger generations are becoming obese at an earlier age.
For example, in high-income countries, only 7% of men born in the 1960s were obese by age 25. For men born in the 1990s, this number rose to 16%, and for those born in 2015, it is predicted to reach 25%. This means more people will face health issues at a younger age.
What Needs to Be Done
The study’s authors stress that countries need to take immediate action to slow the rise in obesity. They recommend:
Stricter regulations on the marketing of unhealthy foods, especially to children.
More access to healthy food options.
Better urban planning to include parks and exercise facilities.
Programs to encourage healthy diets for pregnant women and young children.
Dr. Kerr emphasized that governments, especially in low- and middle-income countries, must balance tackling obesity with addressing undernutrition. She warned that without strong policies, many countries will miss the chance to prevent obesity before it becomes even more widespread.
Study Limitations
The study has some limitations. First, it relies on past trends, meaning unexpected changes—such as new medical treatments—could affect future obesity rates. Second, BMI does not account for differences in body composition across different ethnic groups. Finally, self-reported data might not always be accurate, though researchers tried to correct for this.
Final Thoughts
The study provides a clear warning: obesity is rising at an alarming rate and could become one of the biggest global health crises of the century. Without urgent policy changes, billions of people will be at higher risk for severe health problems.
While reversing the trend entirely may be difficult, early intervention, better food policies, and increased physical activity can help slow the growth of obesity and improve health outcomes worldwide.
The research findings can be found in The Lancet.
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