The Pantsir-S1 is devastating against small, fast, or low-flying threats—of the kind that U.S.-built drones and JDAMs pose.
The Ukraine War is rife with speculation and disinformation, spread by both Moscow and Kyiv in support of their war aims. Yet if one takes a bird’s-eye view of the conflict, an undeniable trend emerges: the Ukrainians are on the back foot in the conflict, and Russia has enjoyed a series victories. These victories not only harm the Ukrainians tactically, but highlight the flaws of advanced U.S. and NATO military weapons.
As of March 1, the Russian military claims that their defenses in Kursk were able to knock down six Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) guided bombs, along with 190 U.S.-built unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). If these claims are to be believed, it would represent a major setback for Ukraine’s air warfare strategy—and a blow to America’s prestige as well.
What If the Russians Are Adapting to NATO Systems?
To be clear, no Western media or official government sources have confirmed these claims by the Kremlin. This perhaps is not surprising, seeing as the JDAM represents one of the most advanced—and effective—weapons systems that the Americans gave to the Ukrainians. If the JDAMs are being shot down, it would show that the few American weapons that have kept Ukraine in the war are no longer having their desired effect.
This development may be unfortunate for Washington, but it should not be surprising. In many respects, warfare is fundamentally a race of adaptation. For years, the Ukrainians were able to do significant damage to Russian forces with drones and JDAMs. If the reports are true, the recent news about the downing of these U.S. systems in Kursk shows that Moscow has adapted so well to the current threat environment—and that even the best NATO weapons are no longer quite so useful.
To say the least, this is a significant problem for Europe. With the Trump administration seemingly backing away from continuing the Ukraine War, the Europeans will be on the hook for providing lethal aid to Ukraine. American weapons remain the best systems in the NATO arsenal generally. And if even these advanced U.S. systems are being stymied by stronger Russian defenses, the likelihood that European-made weapons given to Ukraine will be more effective is low.
What Makes the JDAM So Dangerous?
Back in 2023, the first JDAM kits were reportedly deployed by Ukraine to counter the Russian invasion of the country. What a JDAM does is to essentially take a conventional “dumb” bomb and convert it into a “smart,” precision-guided bomb.
The JDAM is not a bomb itself. It is merely a guidance kit, initially developed by the United States Air Force and Navy, with Boeing as the primary contractor. These systems were first designed after Desert Storm, in response to the experience that laser-guided bombs could be knocked off course by bad weather. The kits ensure reliable all-weather accuracy. By 1998, JDAM kits were rolling out, and they have since become a go-to for modern air forces. Soviet-era Su-27s and MiG-29s in the Ukrainian Air Force deployed the US-provided JDAMS in combat.
“Dumb” bombs of varying sizes, such as the 2,000-pound Mk 84, the 1,000-pound Mk 83, or 500-pound Mk 82, are placed within the guidance kit. The tail section of the guidance kit adds adjustable fins, a Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver, and an inertial navigation system (INS). Before the bomb is dropped by an aircraft, the bird feeds target coordinates into the bomb’s system. Once released, the onboard INS tracks the bomb’s motion while the GPS keeps it locked on its target, tweaking the fins to steer it.
JDAMs can hit within about 16 feet of the target when their GPS is active, or 98 feet with INS alone if the GPS gets jammed. These weapons can glide about 15 miles, with the JDAM Extended Range, or JDAM-ER, stretching that to over 40 miles.
So how did Russia knock these systems out of the sky, if indeed they did?
Russia’s Pantsir-S1 Should Be Taken Seriously
Enter the Pantsir-S1. This system is a short-to-medium-range, self-propelled air defense system designed by Russia’s KBP Instrument Design Bureau in Tula. It’s a hybrid beast, combining surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) and anti-aircraft guns to protect military bases, industrial sites, and administrative hubs from a variety of aerial threats, including JDAMs and drones. Often, the Pantsir-S1 is paired with the longer-range defensive systems, such as the S-300 or the S-400, when lower altitude attacks are employed against Russian targets—such as what the Ukrainians launched in Kursk.
Pantsir-S1s carry 12 57E6 or 57E6-E SAMs in vertical launch canisters. These are two-stage missiles with a solid-fuel booster and sustainer, guided by radio command. They pack a 44-pound fragmentation rod warhead, achieving speeds as fast as 1,300 meters per second, and can hit targets as far away as 12 miles away and as high as nine miles in the air.
Not only does the Pantsir-S1 possess missiles, but it also comes equipped with 2A38M 30mm autocannons—firing up to 5,000 rounds per minute combined, with a range of more than two miles. These cannons are loaded with anywhere between 700-1,400 rounds of high-explosive or armor-piercing ammunition, and can hit targets as high as 1.8 miles in the air.
The Pantsir-S1 has a “brain,” too: it possesses a sophisticated fire control system with a phased-array radar (on the S-band for detection, X/Ku-band for tracking) that spots targets between 22 and 47 miles away. The system can track them within 15 to 17 miles. It has an electro-optical backup with thermal imaging and infrared, allowing it to engage two targets at once—one per channel.
Thus, the Pantsir-S1 is devastating against small, fast, or low-flying threats—of the kind that U.S.-built drones and JDAMs pose.
What’s more, Pantsir-S1 batteries are mobile. They’re mounted on an eight-by-eight KAMAZ truck crewed by two-to-three operators, and, crucially, can fire while on the move. A battery usually includes up to six combat vehicles—a command post along with support units.
The Pantsir has other variants, too. But the Pantsir family is prized for its rapid response time. For example, it can engage targets within an astonishing five to seven seconds after detecting those systems.
The systems are not infallible: they have been known to be degraded by electronic warfare (EW) and GPS jamming, which the Ukrainians have used at various times to great effect. Still, they represent an effective countermeasure to one of Ukraine’s go-to weapons systems.
Trump Might Be Right: End the War to Save NATO’s Fighting Capabilities
A Moscow-based Russian military analyst in a conversation with this author over the Signal text app strongly insisted that stories such as the one reported here were factual. According to this source, the Russians have spent the last four years rapidly adapting their systems to better handle “the top NATO gear” that the United States and NATO have been pouring into Ukraine to use against the Russian Armed Forces.
After four years of learning, the Russians probably have adapted in many cases. This may be one of those examples. If so, the Trump administration’s calls for peace in the near-term would benefit the Ukrainians and NATO, as their most cutting-edge weapons might no longer be of much challenge to the advancing Russians.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a Senior Fellow at the Center for the National Interest, and a contributor at Popular Mechanics, consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter@WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Andrey Kryuchenko.