The Seattle Seahawks made one of the most surprising trades of this offseason so far on Friday, sending quarterback Geno Smith to the Las Vegas Raiders in return for a third-round pick, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.
The move officially signals the Seahawks' possible rebuild is underway, after the team released wide receiver Tyler Lockett earlier this week, and battery mate D.K. Metcalf requested a trade as well.
It also gives new Raiders head coach Pete Carroll the quarterback he needs to jumpstart a quick rebuild in Las Vegas, right?
Not so fast. A closer look at this deal shows it comes with immense risk for everyone involved.
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For the Seahawks, they're banking on finding a superior quarterback option someplace. They're not in a position to draft one this season, and the free agency options don't exactly inspire confidence. You're really going to trust one season of Sam Darnold looking good to throw a massive bag at him right now?
And make no mistake, even if you somehow manage to keep Metcalf, your receiver corps isn't half as good as Minnesota's. There's very little room for error, and as we saw down the stretch and into the playoffs, Darnold is hardly an unstoppable force.And after that, the options get bleak REAL quick. There's no quarterback out there, including the draft class, who you could tell me is better than Smith is right now.
Maybe that's the plan, to get bad enough to find the face of the franchise in next year's draft. But if you're a Seahawks fan, do you feel good about the class next year? Are you excited to see, say, Drew Allar or Cade Klubnik trotting out there to be mediocre? I'm not saying Geno Smith is Tom Brady, but he dragged an absolutely abysmal offensive line to 10-7 this season, and a fair number of his 15 picks were due to lack of time in the pocket.
But Seattle aren't the only ones taking a chance here; the Raiders are too.
Smith has had moments of brilliance in his three years starting for the Seahawks, but he's been a bit turnover prone. 35 picks in three years is a tough, tough pill to swallow if you're a team looking for your first good quarterback since Rich Gannon. Is Smith better than the other options out there for Las Vegas at this point? Absolutely. And his history of success with Carroll at the helm is absolutely a mark in the positive column, but there's a ton of risk in putting all your eggs in that basket.
There's risk for Smith, as well. This isn't the same kind of team he took over in Seattle, with weapons aplenty to use. Brock Bowers is a force of nature at tight end, and Jakobi Meyers posted a career year for the Raiders last year. But the offensive line is suspect, the run game is shaky as hell, and outside of Meyers and Bowers, there's a whole lot of nothing in the receiver room to get excited about.
This move has an incredibly high chance of going poorly for Smith. With the defenses in the AFC West, and the lack of offensive talent in Las Vegas, there's no guarantee of anything approaching the success he had in Seattle.
Things could work out great for everyone; the Seahawks might find their next quarterback sooner than later, and Smith could shine for the Raiders. But given all the balls still in the air for everyone, don't be surprised if this one goes into the loss column for everyone involved.
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