Institute for the Study of war map. This map from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) shows the state of play in Russia's Kursk region. Institute for the Study of War
Ukrainian troops risk being surrounded in Russia's Kursk region, where they staged an incursion more than six months ago.
Open-source maps show that Russian troops have retaken territory in Kursk, using a counteroffensive that has seen Moscow make its first advances into Ukraine's Sumy region on the other side of the border.
The move raises the prospect of Russian forces cutting Ukrainian supply lines and encircling Kyiv's troops. Newsweek has contacted the Ukrainian Defense Ministry for comment.
Why It Matters
Ukraine made swift gains when it launched its bold Kursk incursion in August. However, Russian troops have slowly retaken much of this territory, bolstered by North Korean personnel.
As negotiations over a peace deal to end the conflict unfold, Ukraine seeks to hold on to parts of Kursk for leverage. However, its waning fortunes in the region may undermine that plan.
What To Know
Ukraine's fortunes in the Russia's Kursk region have deteriorated sharply this week, with Moscow's counteroffensive almost cutting the Ukrainian force in two and separating the main group from its principal supply lines, Reuters reported.
Open-source mapping from Deep State, a Ukrainian military account on X, formerly Twitter, showed that about three-quarters of the Ukrainian force inside Russia had been almost completely encircled, raising the possibility that Ukraine's forces may be have to retreat or risk being captured or killed.
The remaining troops near the Russian border are connected by a narrow corridor, and the only Ukrainian road into the city of Sudzha-which Kyiv captured early in the incursion-is within range of Russia's first-person-view drones.
An unnamed junior sergeant communicating with The Telegraph told the British paper that Ukraine was considering withdrawing from Kursk to avoid further losses because "the fear of encirclement is real."
In its Friday update, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Russian forces had advanced into northern Sumy Oblast for the first time since 2022, which they will likely leverage to completely expel Ukrainian forces from the Kursk region.
Its latest map shows that Russian forces, which included elements of the 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment, had captured Staraya Sorochina and advanced northwest of Basivka.
A spokesperson for a Ukrainian brigade in the Kursk direction said Russian forces were attacking weak points in Ukraine's defenses using small infantry groups and by occasionally conducting mechanized assaults.
The precarious situation for Ukraine comes after Washington suspended its intelligence sharing with Kyiv, which faces mounting U.S. pressure to agree to a ceasefire with Moscow.
The move has allowed Russians to operate more freely and plan attacks without Ukrainian knowledge, with a military intelligence officer in Kyiv saying the freeze amounted to "more or less a total blackout."
What People Are Saying
The Institute for the Study of War said in its March 7 assessment of Russia's campaign: "Russian forces likely intend to leverage limited advances into Sumy Oblast to completely expel Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast among other objectives."
Pasi Paroinen, a military analyst with the Black Bird Group in Finland, told Reuters: "The situation (for Ukraine in Kursk) is very bad. … If Ukrainian forces are not able to restore the situation quickly, this could be the moment where the Kursk salient begins to finally close into an encircled pocket."
What Happens Next
Senior U.S. and Ukrainian officials are set to meet in Saudi Arabia next week to discuss efforts toward a ceasefire in the war with Russia.
On Saturday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced his delegation to represent Kyiv in the upcoming talks.
Zelensky wrote on X that the Ukrainian team would include Andriy Yermak, his chief of staff; Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha; Defense Minister Rustem Umerov; and Deputy Head of the Office of the President Pavlo Palisa.
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This story was originally published March 8, 2025 at 11:05 AM.