It’s been all change in recent days off the pitch at Everton, but on the pitch it’s been smooth sailing since Captain David Moyes took over a ship which was in serious danger of foundering on the rocks of an incompetent attack — and an overcautious approach. A team which had registered blanks in eight of its ten previous league matches, scoring only five goals, has now hit the back of the opposition net 15 times over the past seven.
The scale of the turnaround is even more stark than those numbers suggest, given the Blues put four of those five goals past just one opponent — Gary O’Neil’s hapless Wolves side, in what would be the under-fire manager’s penultimate game in charge. Throw in the loss of the on-fire Iliman Ndiaye for half of that run of games, and it can’t be understated what a job Moyes has done.
Due to the eccentricities of the Premier League’s fixture-arranging gnomes, the Toffees play only twice in March, compared to six matches last month and five in January. First up is a trip to Molineux, for tonight’s unusually-late kickoff, against a Wolves outfit now helmed by Vítor Pereira.
Form
O’Neil did well in his first season in charge of the Old Gold, as a last-minute replacement for an unhappy Julen Lopetegui a mere four days before the campaign was due to start. Despite receiving no assistance (the club registered a net transfer spend profit of over €75m), the 41-year-old managed a 14th-place finish. Sadly for the inexperienced boss, Wolves continued to haemorrhage talent last summer, losing key centre back Max Kilman to West Ham United (€47.5m) and gifted winger Pedro Neto to Chelsea (€60m).
The hierarchy at least reinvested part of the proceedings in new signings, however. Those making the biggest contribution this season have been Brazilian international midfielder André (€22m, Fluminense) and tall centre forward Jørgen Strand Larsen (loan, Celta de Vigo). Young wingback Rodrigo Gomes (€15m, Braga) was becoming more prominent before picking up an injury last month, but will be available for selection tonight. In the winter, with the club in a relegation battle, they spent €50m on reinforcements, adding centre half Emmanuel Agbadou and attacking midfielder Marshall Munetsi — both from Stade Reims.
The team was a shocking mess this term, starting horribly and never showing any signs of making a recovery. With Wolves sat in 19th spot, the manager having lost the backing of large sections of the fanbase and making the fatal mistake of calling out the inadequacies of his squad, a visibly crumbling O’Neil was dispensed with in December. Everton fans had witnessed firsthand how vulnerable the West Midlanders were earlier in that month, as they watched their goal-shy team plunder four against the visitors at Goodison Park. In as the replacement, was Pereira — a man once famously poised to become the Blues manager himself.
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC v Fulham FC - Premier League Sá is beaten by Ryan Sessegnon of Fulham, in the team’s last league outing
Photo by Rene Nijhuis/MB Media
The experienced Portuguese has steadied the ship. Since taking over, he’s guided Wolves to four wins from 12 league outings, against seven defeats. His points per game average of 1.08 is actually marginally lower than what O’Neil had managed over his last seven (1.14), but Wolves do at least look more defensively organized. In almost all of their defeats under Pereira, they have at least been competitive and wins over Aston Villa and Bournemouth last month were impressive. Following defeat to Fulham, today’s hosts sit in 17th place, five points above Ipswich Town, but with superior goal difference and last time out, they exited the FA Cup away at the Cherries, on penalties.
Style of Play
O’Neil had unsuccessfully flitted about between several formations as he strove to find something which worked, and which could protect a dreadful defence, but Pereira has added a measure of stability by sticking with a 3-4-3. The club added two central defenders in January, in an effort to address the team’s major weakness — in stark contrast to relegation rivals Ipswich and Leicester City, who left their awful defences alone, for reasons which escape me. It’s largely down to this improvement, along with the fiery Pereira’s more energetic, proactive and confident manner, which has seen Wolves pull clear of the drop zone, whilst the others have stagnated.
Pereira hasn’t reinvented the wheel here, but he’s seen the major issues and pushed for this to be addressed during the winter transfer window, in addition to getting the fans back onside by demonstrating that there is now a competent man in the dugout, who is in control and with a definite system in place. They’ve yet to ship more than three goals in a match under the Portuguese, whereas O’Neil oversaw the Midlanders concede four on two occasions, along with five and six. They are no longer getting humiliated, even in games where they end up on the wrong side of a clear defeat, as in 3-0 losses to Nottingham Forest and Newcastle United.
They focus on a well-organized defence, which is shielded by an active midfield, relying on overlapping wingbacks and a gifted individual in Matheus Cunha to carry the attacking threat. Wolves have scored 14 league goals in 12 outings under Pereira, slightly lower than their xG of 15.0. The Old Gold have conceded 18 times, broadly in line with an xGA of 17.5; they have managed four clean sheets in that time. Today’s hosts are posting a 48.9% share of possession currently, up from 46.2% under the previous manager. It’s almost certain, with their willingness to play on the deck, that they will be on the ball more than the visitors, especially on home turf.
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC v Fulham FC - Premier League Three of Wolves’ key men — João Gomes, André and Aït-Nouri
Photo by Rene Nijhuis/MB Media/Getty Images
Player Assessment
In José Sá, Wolves have a veteran but erratic goalkeeper. The 32-year-old can be pressured by getting bodies around him on set-pieces and though capable in possession, can be susceptible to miscommunication when trying to play out from the back. He seems to alternate campaigns where he stops more goals than would be expected (his first and third season at Wolves), with underperforming that same, vital metric, as he did in his sophomore outing and again this term, in which he’s let in an appalling seven goals more than expected, given the shot quality he’s faced.
Career wingback Matt Doherty will be part of Wolves’ back three, probably alongside Toti Gomes and either Santi Bueno, or Agbadou — who passed a late fitness test. The latter has made a big difference to the team’s defensive stability since arriving and is also comfortable on the ball. Out wide, the hosts possess two useful wingbacks, in Rayan Aït-Nouri and Nélson Semedo, the team captain. The former is defensively shaky, but has eight league goal contributions this term.
André and fellow Seleção team-member João Gomes offer plenty of energy, tenacity and technical quality in the midfield. The pair lead the team in ball recoveries and combined tackles and interceptions. Both maintain possession competently and combine well, with André more inclined to act in an anchoring role, allowing his fellow Brazilian to break forward on occasion. With star man Cunha suspended, playing higher up will be Munetsi and either Jean-Ricner Bellegarde or Pablo Sarabia. Larsen, scorer of seven goals this term, will be the lone striker, though his early season form has deserted him.
Solution
Moyes will almost certainly go with the same players who battled to a well-deserved draw at Brentford ten days ago, with the only real decision being whether to bring back Abdoulaye Doucouré in place of Carlos Alcaraz. The Argentinian is an exciting watch, but given that the strongest part of this Wolves team is in midfield, I can see the hard-working veteran being preferred tonight. The manager will potentially have a couple more realistic options on the bench, with Nathan Patterson and Youssef Chermiti having had a number of additional training sessions under their belts since the team’s last outing.
Brentford FC v Everton FC - Premier League Beto can banish memories of his woes in front of goal against the Bees
Photo by Warren Little/Getty Images
This is positive news, but the weight of the Everton attack will once more fall on the admittedly broad shoulders of Beto, who will look to banish some glaring misses against the Bees and to resume the impressive form he’s displayed since Moyes took over. Against a home defence which has improved over what was on evidence three months ago at Goodison - but is still vulnerable - he has every chance to score again today. The visitors do need to see more attacking contribution from wingers Jesper Lindstrøm and Jack Harrison, though — which Moyes spoke about yesterday.
The hosts are still vulnerable when defending set-pieces (they have conceded a division-high 17), and prone to errors (a joint-high six penalties and three own goals). Whilst Everton are lacking Dwight McNeil’s dead-ball delivery, they should have enough size and aggression in attacking the ball to threaten Wolves, who are not a big side. The Old Gold do like to play out from defence and through midfield and although they aren’t bad at it, this still presents opportunities for the Toffees to steal the ball and damage them in transition.
It’d be unfair to characterize the Midlanders as being totally a one-man team, but they do heavily rely on Cunha and without the fantastically-talented Brazilian - who is a genuinely elite player - then they figure to struggle going forwards with the same level of threat and fluidity. As a consequence, even with Wolves enjoying home advantage I feel that the Blues are more than capable of continuing their unbeaten run on the road under Moyes and that a win is the most likely outcome.
Prediction: Wolves 0-2 Everton
Stats provided courtesy offbref.com,transfermarkt.co.uk andwhoscored.com