Most of the foreign policy themes of Trump’s second term are familiar from his first. He remains sceptical of alliances, though, of course, Moscow or Beijing would dearly love to have alliance networks as powerful and cost-effective as those of the US. Trump still prefers the company of autocrats and strongmen to democratic leaders. His hostility to free trade has intensified. Tariff is “the most beautiful word in the dictionary”, he says: both a means to force concessions from other states and a revenue-raising end in itself.
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But Trump 2.0 also contains an innovation. Trump has always believed, despite the evidence, that America is on the wrong end of the global deal: ripped off and disrespected. Last time, his solution was to reduce America’s stake: to retrench, to withdraw from international institutions and geographies. This time, Trump’s idea is to increase America’s payout: to expand, to grab more protection money and more land.
Trump’s stated desire to acquire new territories for the US, including Greenland, the Panama Canal, Canada and Gaza – in some cases, perhaps, through the use of force – is genuinely shocking. It blurs the clear bright line breached by Russia in its brutal and illegal invasion of Ukraine. It may well encourage China to [chance its arm on Taiwan](/link/follow-20170101-p5lh1u). If this were to occur, it is unlikely that Trump would deploy America’s forces in Taiwan’s defence. He seems more disposed to seek an accommodation with Beijing than a confrontation.
The irony is that Trump’s plans to make America great again will subvert the pillars of American greatness. The US alliance network is a key comparative advantage vis-à-vis its adversaries. America’s companies and entrepreneurs dominate the international economy. Trump’s graceless conduct will alienate the world.
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The genius of FDR and his successors lay in the fact that they were able to achieve what historian John Lewis Gaddis described as “hegemony by consent”. America’s friends could see a place for themselves in Washington’s worldview, so they went along with Washington’s ways.
But if you push your friends to the brink in every negotiation – if you demand the very minerals from the land they are defending with their lives, and then insist they thank you for the privilege – well, then, sooner or later, that consent will evaporate.
“The free world needs a new leader,” said EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas. But Europe is not up to this task. The hope of the free world – especially Australia and other US allies in Asia – must be that the fever in Washington will soon pass.
**Michael Fullilove is executive director of the Lowy Institute. He is writing a book about John F. Kennedy.**
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