Syria is teetering on the brink of all-out civil war, once again, as fighting rages between the new regime in Damascus and fighters loyal to the deposed President Bashar al-Assad. The last few days have seen heavy fighting in the coastal region, with reports of dozens of the Alawite minority having been executed by Syrian security forces.
The current violence in Syria is the worst since the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) brought down the Assad regime in December and installed an Islamist transitional government.
LATAKIA, SYRIA - MARCH 07: Search and sweep operations are being expanded to track down remnants of the deposed Bashar al-Assad regime after recent security tensions in the coastal region, where ousted regime elements attacked security patrols and checkpoints, resulting in casualties on March 07, 2025 in Latakia, Syria. (Photo by zettin Kasm/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Search and sweep operations by Syrian government forces, in an effort to track down fighters loyal to the deposed Bashar al-Assad regime in Latakia, Syria, on March 7. Photo by Zettin Kasm/Anadolu via Getty Images Anadolu
According to the U.K.-based Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR), around 125 civilians have been executed by government security forces in northwest Syria over the past two days. This is part of a larger total — around 240 people — who have been killed in the same period, including 100 Syrian security forces and 15 civilians at the hands of Assad loyalists. Many more have been injured.
The SNHR documented “large-scale field executions of men and young adults, without any clear distinction between civilians and combatants,” in northwest Syria.
The Syrian-based Step news agency has reported that government-aligned forces had killed “about 70” former regime fighters, while more than 25 others were captured in Jableh and the surrounding areas.
“Thousands have chosen to surrender their weapons and return to their families, while some insist on fleeing and dying in defense of murderers and criminals,” Col. Hassan Abdul Ghani, a spokesman for Syria’s defense ministry, warned the Assad loyalists. “The choice is clear: lay down your weapons or face your inevitable fate,” he added.
LATAKIA, SYRIA - MARCH 07: A rocket is seen being fired as authorities extended the curfew in the cities of Latakia and Tartus in northwest Syria on Friday and launched large-scale security sweeps in urban centers, villages, and surrounding mountains to track down remnants of the deposed Bashar al-Assad regime on March 07, 2025 in Latakia, Syria. This decision was made in response to recent security tensions in the coastal region, which saw former regime elements attack security patrols and checkpoints, resulting in casualties. (Photo by Abdulvacit Haci Isteyfi/Anadolu via Getty Images)
A rocket is fired as authorities extended the curfew in the cities of Latakia and Tartus in northwest Syria on March 7. Photo by Abdulvacit Haci Isteyfi/Anadolu via Getty Images Anadolu
In a statement yesterday, Interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa also called on armed groups affiliated with the former Assad regime to lay down their arms.
“When we compromise our ethics, we reduce ourselves to the same level as our enemy,” he said in a video address. “The remnants of the fallen regime are looking for a provocation that will lead to violations behind which they can seek refuge.”
The fighting has been centered in the cities of Latakia and Tartus, in the coastal region, where curfews have been imposed. The first reports of fighting were in the town of Jableh, in Latakia province, where Assad-loyalist militants ambushed Syrian security forces.
NEW | Insurgent cells continued to attack Syrian interim government personnel across Latakia and Tartous provinces as Syrian forces deployed to re-impose security over the coastal region. (1/6) pic.twitter.com/dGF75wo2ZX
— Critical Threats (@criticalthreats) March 8, 2025
At least one video, verified by the BBC, shows a body being dragged behind a car in Latakia.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a U.K.-based war monitoring group, has described gunmen ambushing government forces, targeting checkpoints and headquarters along the coastline. Reports suggest that gunmen have taken control of some military zones in the coastal region after they launched attacks out of the Latakia mountains. In particular, parts of the towns of Qardaha and Baniyas are said to be under the control of Assad-loyalist forces.
Another video, also verified by the BBC, shows fighting further inland, in the city of Homs. This footage shows gunmen firing automatic weapons at a building, after which a fire starts inside.
In response to the escalating violence, the Syrian government has deployed thousands of troops to northwest Syria and has attacked Assad loyalists with helicopter gunships, drones, and artillery.
Aerial view of a tank being transported by fighters with the new Syrian government in Baniyas, Syria, on March 7. Photo by Ali Haj Suleiman/Getty Images
Government forces launched a major operation in the town of Qardaha, Latakia province, on Friday, Syrian state media reports. The Syrian Ministry of Defense says its troops are targeting buildings and hills around the town where former regime fighters are hiding out.
Overall, the campaign by the anti-government forces seems to have been fairly well planned.
A video released by one former Assad regime officer shortly after the offensive began described it as Operation Coastal Shield. He also called upon Syria’s various sects to rise against the government in Damascus.
The coastal region is the main stronghold of Syria’s Alawite minority, to which the Assad family belongs. The region has also been traditionally strongly pro-Assad. Since the fall of the former leader’s regime, Alawite activists have said that their community has been subjected to violence and attacks, especially in rural Homs and Latakia.
BANIYAS, SYRIA - MARCH 7: A fighters with the new Syrian government rides on a tank on March 7, 2025 in Baniyas, Syria. Dozens of people have been killed in clashes between loyalists of the deposed Assad regime and forces of the country's new rulers. It is the heaviest such fighting since Syrian rebels toppled the Assad regime last December. (Photo by Ali Haj Suleiman/Getty Images)
A fighter with the new Syrian government rides on a tank in Baniyas, Syria, on March 7. Photo by Ali Haj Suleiman/Getty Images Ali Haj Suleiman
The violence against the Alawites has now intensified, including apparent revenge killings.
The SNHR says that in the town of al-Mukhtariya, in Latakia province, around 40 civilians were executed together in a single location. Videos — which have not been independently verified — show bodies dressed in civilian clothes piled on top of one another as well as gunmen executing seemingly unarmed men.
The Syrian interior ministry has admitted that some “individual violations” have taken place. This, they say, is the result of people heading toward the villages being attacked by Assad loyalists. The ministry has not claimed responsibility for any of the alleged executions.
There was always a major risk that more intense fighting would break out again after the fall of the Assad regime, and it’s not a surprise that, now that it’s happened, the focus is on the coastal region.
Battles take place between the new Syrian government's Defense Ministry forces and the forces loyal to Bashar Assad on March 7, 2025, in outskirts of Jableh, Latakia countryside, Syria. (Photo by Mohamad Daboul / Middle East Images / Middle East Images via AFP) (Photo by MOHAMAD DABOUL/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)
Fighting between the new Syrian government’s forces and the forces loyal to Bashar Assad on the outskirts of Jableh, Latakia countryside, on March 7. Photo by Mohamad Daboul / Middle East Images / Middle East Images via AFP MOHAMAD DABOUL
Clearly, this area provides Interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa with a major security challenge.
However, there are problems elsewhere in the country, too.
In recent days, there have been growing reports of violence in the south of Syria, where government forces have clashed with Druze forces. The young Syrian regime’s tensions with other rebel factions, such as the Kurds, remains an issue too, among a litany of others. Complex alliances also complicate things further. Turkey, who strongly backs the new government and is outright hostile to the Kurds, and the U.S., who has backed Kurdish forces, makes the situation even more murky. Israel is also occupying more land in Southern Syria for its buffer zone, as it is becoming increasingly wary of the new government.
There is also now a question of whether Russia or another power might step in to try and help the new regime in Damascus militarily. Turkey is already engaged in these efforts, but not anywhere near fully using the might of its regular forces. For Russia, such an arrangement would likely be made to try and secure continued access to its military bases in Syria’s coastal region. Much of Russia’s forces have been withdrawn from the air base at Khmeimim and the naval base in Tartus. However, the future of both remains uncertain.
Russia’s ability to step in as it did for Assad a decade ago is questionable, with all focus being on the war in Ukraine. But the strategic importance of both bases is great. While providing the new government with economic backing and other assistance could secure these facilities, that would only be as long as the current regime remains in power. As such, reengaging militarily may be seen as necessary in order to ensure their survival. It’s also worth noting that these facilities are in the same areas hardest hit by the resistance fighting right now, which is a vulnerability, especially considering the drawdown in Russian forces there.
The idea that Russia could fight for the very people it bombed mercilessly for many years on Assad’s behalf is darkly ironic, but not totally alien to a region where allegiances can shift with the sands.
A potential Russian deal with the new Syrian regime remains speculative for now, and Moscow may well prefer to wait and see what happens next. If the current government in Damascus is eventually toppled, it may then be able to strike some kind of a deal with whatever polity is left over.
LATAKIA, SYRIA - MARCH 07: Search and sweep operations are being expanded to track down remnants of the deposed Bashar al-Assad regime after recent security tensions in the coastal region, where ousted regime elements attacked security patrols and checkpoints, resulting in casualties on March 07, 2025 in Latakia, Syria. (Photo by zettin Kasm/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Another image of search and sweep operations by Syrian government forces in Latakia, Syria, on March 7. Photo by Zettin Kasm/Anadolu via Getty Images Anadolu
Whatever the case, Russia prizes access to these two bases, and there have been recent reports that Moscow is still trying to strike a deal that would ensure continued access.
For now, it remains unclear exactly how substantial the ex-regime factions in Syria actually are and whether they could eventually threaten the integrity of the new government. There are other flashpoints, too, including in the southeast, which has seen an incursion by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) as part of wider Israeli military efforts against Syria.
At this point, however, the spiraling violence in the coastal region is a huge concern and could yet spill over into something like an all-out civil war.
Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com