Checking in on how Arsenal are performing compared to the Key Performance Indicators for the 2024-25 season
We are back checking on Arsenal and how they are doing compared to the expectations that I set for them at the start of the season.
Doing these posts continues to be one of my favorites of the reoccurring type posts that I do and I think a sober and cold check on the team’s numbers is needed because it is just so easy to get wrapped up in the narratives online and in the media at large. I think that they are helpful illustrations of where Arsenal are compared to pre-determined expectations and helps to make sure that we don’t move the goal posts when making judgments for how the season is going compared to previous seasons.
For the items presented below the blue line is the average for the season, the red line on the current season is what I set out as my goal for Arsenal’s season to be a ‘success’.The baseline goal this season is “title winning team” and set the expectations high.
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Points
Season Avg: 2.1 per match
Last 10 Avg: 2.4 per match
Season Goal: 2.5 per match
↘️ On points, Arsenal are below my expectations but creeping up towards them
Arsenal remains in second place on the table a bit on an island there all by themselves, behind Liverpool but pretty comfortably ahead of the teams in 3rd through 6th.
Arsenal haven’t lost in the Premier League since November and even though they have had some painful draws that has helped them pick up the points pace with seven wins and three draws over the last ten played. The expected points were a leading indicator here and hopefully the team can get some time over performing that to put pressure on Liverpool.
Meeting the goal for the season means basically winning out and that might be too tall of a task for the team given the injury situation.
Goals
Season Avg: 2.0 per match
Last 10 Avg: 2.2 per match
Season Goal: 2.3 per match
Season Avg: 0.9 per match
Last 10 Avg: 0.7 per match
Season Goal: 0.7 per match
Season Avg: +1.2 per match
Last 10 Avg: +1.5 per match
Season Goal: +1.6 per match
↘️ On all three measures for goals, Arsenal are just below my expectations but trending in the right direction.
It is not ideal that Arsenal got off to a slow start on these measures, that continues to be the main factor that has left them behind Liverpool rather than neck and neck with them.
We know the reasons why that is and unfortunately we can’t go back and undo the red cards and injuries that Arsenal suffered. It is encouraging that over the last 10 played Arsenal are basically at the required level, it is just too bad it has happened 25 matches into the season.
Expected Goals
Season Avg: 1.7 per match
Last 10 Avg: 1.6 per match
Season Goal: 2.0 per match
Season Avg: 0.9 per match
Last 10 Avg: 0.7 per match
Season Goal: 0.8 per match
Season Avg: +0.8 per match
Last 10 Avg: +0.9 per match
Season Goal: +1.2 per match
↘️ On all three measures for expected goals, Arsenal are below my expectations but it is getting close to meeting expectations on the defensive side of the ball.
While the actual goal numbers are nearly at the level required, the expected numbers overall are still lagging behind. The current Arsenal team probably does have some gloss on the overall performances.
After a slow start to the season in front of goal, Arsenal have seen the finishing numbers turn positive for them and at it could not have happened at a better time for the team with it helping to make up for the injury crisis in the attacking line.
The overall numbers are not pretty but given everything going on, it is pretty expected to be in this situation.
Shots
Season Avg: 9.8 per match
Last 10 Avg: 9.8 per match
Season Goal: 13.1 per match
Season Avg: 7.9 per match
Last 10 Avg: 6.2 per match
Season Goal: 5.2 per match
↘️On the goals for shots, Arsenal are well below my expectations
I have now written this basically every update this season, “I continue to feel a little uneasy about Arsenal’s shot numbers” and there isn’t anything that is making me feel better about this in the short term.
In attack, the numbers have continued a downward trend and missing four attackers (arguably the top four attackers in the squad) for at least the next month doesn’t suggest that this will turn upwards. There is perhaps a bright spot with Ethan Nwaneri showing a willingness to let loose but it might be too much to expect him to just fix everything for Arsenal.
On defense, the early season numbers still distort the overall numbers but the last 10 matches has seen Arsenal back to trend as an elite shot-suppressing team.
Deep Completions
Season Avg: 24.6 per match
Last 10 Avg: 24.5 per match
Season Goal: 30.0 per match
Season Avg: 13.6 per match
Last 10 Avg: 9.5 per match
Season Goal: 10.1 per match
↘️On the goals for deep completions, Arsenal are below my expectations and again the story is that the attack is more concerning than the defense which has trended to expectation.
I watch these numbers closely and the defensive numbers have been leading indicators that there wasn’t something fundamentally wrong there, and it has been proven right as Arsenal have bounced back to looking like the expected elite defensive team.
The attack, well it has not seen the bounce back and I don’t see a signal here that we should expect more from the team to turn it into more than just pretty good attack here. Again we know the reasons for this so we don’t need to repeat them, it is just confirming what we know with the squad situation and have seen watching the team.
Field Tilt
Season Avg: 65.7% per match
Last 10 Avg: 71.4% per match
Season Goal: 73.8% per match
↘️On field tilt, Arsenal are below my expectations but moving in the right direction
After a slow start of the season down to the 10-man matches and the early injuries Arsenal have bounced back to basically back to where I expected.
Overall
Arsenal are in the middle of a long unbeaten run but it has not been good enough to get them significantly to close the gap to Liverpool. The numbers suggest the team is the second best and that is what the points have said as well this season in the League
The overall numbers are still colored by Red Cards but Arsenal are continuing to move up and to the right on the graphics for how well they are performing.
It is a bit frustrating to back and “what if” those decisions because I still pretty strongly believe that at full strength Arsenal is as good or better than Liverpool, they just haven’t had the opportunities to show it and with the injuries that will never be the case this season.
The numbers are starting to rebound and move back toward where we would have hoped and expected, it just hasn’t had some of the extra right-tail outcomes that we would need to catch up to a very good Liverpool team.