Although yesterday’s come-from-behind win over Championship-bound Southampton was less straight-forward than many of us would have liked, it was still three points closer to clinching the 2024-25 Premier League title.
As things stand, Arsenal can earn a maximum of 87 points if they win out. While that seems unlikely, given their inability to win more than three league matches in a row this season, it’s not completely outside the realm of possibility.
So, for Liverpool to finish on 88 points, that’s 6 wins and 3 losses, or 5 wins, 3 draws, and a loss, in their last 9 matches. That’s just a 2 points-per-game, a pretty significant drop off from their 2.41 points-per-game pace from the first 29 matches.
Importantly, this isn’t even taking into account what Arsenal do. As such, Liverpool’s “magic number” of 18 points, is both points won by the Reds and points dropped by the Gunners. Should Arsenal fail to win away to Manchester United and/or at home against Chelsea, that number will be anywhere between 12 and 16 points.
Liverpool could also help themselves by beating or drawing Arsenal, if it even comes to the point where that match matters.
All of this is to say that Arsenal’s possible routes toward an unlikely comeback are narrowing, and Liverpool’s routes to clinching a league title are increasing with each passing week that Arsenal do not gain points on the Reds.