So, now what?
Throughout the Pacific Northwest and beyond, that’s the question being asked after Friday’s stunning news that the Seattle Seahawks are trading Geno Smith to the Las Vegas Raiders in exchange for a third-round draft pick.
Bump: Why Seahawks now need to sign Sam Darnold
Or more specifically: Who will be playing quarterback for the Seahawks this fall? And what’s the franchise’s long-term plan at the position?
At least some clarity should emerge in the next few days, with the NFL’s free agent negotiating window beginning Monday morning. But until then, let’s take a look at the QB landscape.
Is Darnold headed to Seattle?
At the moment, the Seahawks are widely expected to make a strong run at 27-year-old Sam Darnold in free agency. The Athletic’s Dianna Russini reported Friday that Seattle is targeting the former No. 3 overall pick, who experienced a breakthrough this past season with the Minnesota Vikings that resurrected his once-disappointing NFL career.
Darnold, who signed a one-year deal in 2024 to be Minnesota’s backup QB, took over the starting role after rookie first-round pick J.J. McCarthy suffered a torn meniscus in the preseason. Darnold made the most of his opportunity, leading the Vikings to a 14-3 record while completing 66.2% of his passes for 4,319 yards, 35 TDs and 12 interceptions. However, the luster of his turnaround was somewhat dulled by subpar performances in his final two games, including a blowout wild-card playoff loss to the Los Angeles Rams.
DARNOLD TO JETTAS. VIKINGS RE-TAKE THE LEAD.
📺: #MINvsSEA on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/67RQyrb9vP
— NFL (@NFL) December 22, 2024
With the Vikings expected to turn back to McCarthy this season, Darnold is set to hit the open market. He’s widely regarded as the top free agent QB in this year’s particularly slim class, so the Seahawks undoubtedly will face competition from other QB-needy teams. After the Smith trade on Friday, Russini reported that Darnold is looking for at least a three-year deal.
There’s reason to believe Darnold could be a good fit in Seattle. For one, he already has familiarity with new Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. The two crossed paths in San Francisco back in 2023, when Kubiak was the 49ers’ passing game coordinator and Darnold was the team’s backup QB. Also, Darnold thrived in play-action this past season, totaling the second-most play-action passing yards in the league, according to Pro Football Reference. That could mesh well in Kubiak’s Shanahan-style offense, with play-action being a staple of that scheme.
If the Seahawks are unable to sign Darnold, the rest of the free agent QB market is underwhelming. Other potential options could include 26-year-old former first-round pick Justin Fields and 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers, who was released by the New York Jets last month.
What about this year’s draft?
Unfortunately for the Seahawks, this year’s QB draft class doesn’t have nearly as much high-end talent as recent years. And the top two QBs – Miami’s Cam Ward and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders – are projected to be off the board long before Seattle’s first-round pick at No. 18 overall.
After that, two names picking up steam are Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart and Louisville’s Tyler Shough. Dart seems to have separated himself as the third QB in this year’s class, while Shough has been steadily rising after strong showings at the Senior Bowl and the NFL scouting combine. The Seahawks met with Dart at the combine, so they presumably have at least some degree of interest in him.
Given how desperate NFL teams are for QBs and their tendency to overdraft at the position, it’s difficult to forecast when Dart and Shough will be taken. Dart has been hovering around the mid-to-late first-round range in recent mock drafts, but The Athletic’s Mike Sando, based on conversations with NFL executives, has the Ole Miss product going No. 7 overall. Shough feels more like a late first-round or early second-round pick at this point, but it’s also not difficult to envision a QB-needy team pulling the trigger earlier on.
A BEAUTY of a throw from Jaxson Dart for the TD 🤩 pic.twitter.com/z14x73dNLd
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) January 3, 2025
One thing to keep in mind is the potential for the Seahawks to gain extra draft capital if they trade star wide receiver DK Metcalf, who has requested to be dealt. That could give them the ammunition and flexibility to position themselves to take Dart or Shough, if they are enamored by either of them. It could also make them more comfortable taking a QB early on, knowing that they still have additional first-round or second-round draft capital to address the offensive line or simply take the best player available.
If the Seahawks aren’t willing to strike on a QB in the first round or early second round, they could a flier a bit later on – perhaps in the late second round, third round or even in the fourth. Two interesting QBs in that range could be Texas’ Quinn Ewers and Ohio State’s Will Howard. Both are developmental projects in need of some polishing, but they possess some definite upside.
What about the 2026 draft?
Here’s where things get really interesting. The 2026 draft class is certainly not short on intriguing QBs, with at least a half-dozen signal-callers who possess strong first-round potential.
The most well-known name is Texas’ Arch Manning, the nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning. With a strong arm, a 6-foot-4, 225-pound frame, good mobility and an advanced feel for the game, Arch Manning has a big-time skill set that certainly will entice NFL teams. The biggest question is whether he enters the 2026 or 2027 draft. He’s still just 19 years old and is set to enter his first season as the Longhorns’ full-time starter, having spent the past two seasons behind Ewers.
While Arch Manning’s name generates the most buzz, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers might be the most fascinating QB in the 2026 class. The 6-foot-3, 242-pound dual-threat QB has exceptional speed and athleticism for his size, having reportedly run the 40-yard dash in the high 4.4-second range. He also has a strong arm, a very smooth throwing motion and good pocket presence. It all makes for a tantalizing skill set, which he put on display during the back half of last season as a 19-year-old redshirt freshman.
LaNorris Sellers TD, sheesh 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/NgL4zNYLuh
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) November 30, 2024
Penn State’s Drew Allar also is in the mix to be the top QB in next year’s draft class. The 6-foot-5, 238-pound passer has Josh Allen-like size and big-time arm strength, which he showcased this past season while guiding the Nittany Lions to the College Football Playoff semifinals.
Three other potential first-rounders are Tennessee’s Nico Iamaleava, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier and Clemson’s Cade Klubnik. Iamaleava is a 6-foot-6, 215-pound dual-threat QB with a strong arm. Nussmeier is a gunslinger with big-time arm talent who is never shy at attacking defenses downfield. And Klubnik is an accurate and mobile dual-threat QB who threw 36 TD passes and just six interceptions this past season.
Of course, much can change before April 2026. But at the moment, this class seems to have plenty of strong QB options, along with a nice variety of skill sets.
How could this all fit together?
If the Seahawks are able to sign Darnold, they could be in position to remain competitive in the short-term and hedge their bets at QB in the long-term.
There are certainly still plenty of doubts about Darnold after how he performed in the final two games this past season. But as he showed for most of 2024, he can be a productive quarterback when placed in the right environment. If the Seahawks can upgrade their O-line and fill out their wide receiver and tight end rooms with capable targets, then perhaps Kubiak can bring out Darnold’s better version.
At the same time, the Seahawks can and should continue to look toward the draft – whether it’s this year, next year or both years – for their QB of the future. If Darnold clicks in Seattle, then maybe he ends up being the long-term answer. If he doesn’t, then presumably he could at least serve as a bridge until a younger QB from the draft is ready to take over.
With a rising defense that performed like a top-five unit over the second half of 2024, it doesn’t really make sense for the Seahawks to blow everything up and start anew. Darnold at least could give them a chance to take advantage of that defensive talent in the short-term, while also giving the franchise flexibility to hedge its bets on a QB of the future.
Seattle Seahawks news and analysis
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• Report: Seattle Seahawks change asking price for DK Metcalf
• Report: Seattle Seahawks re-sign DT Jarran Reed to 3-year deal
• A look at Seattle Seahawks’ cap space, draft capital after Geno trade