Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Germany on June 11. (Jens Buttner/Reuters)
The war in Ukraine has helped grow U.S. dominance of the global arms industry, according to a study released Sunday. U.S. arms exports between 2020 and 2024 were up by more than a fifth compared with the previous five-year window, reaching 43 percent of the worldwide total.
The United States has averaged 35 percent of global arms exports over the past two decades, making the recent surge unusual, according to estimates from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), which published the study.
“The USA is in a unique position when it comes to arms exports,” said Mathew George, director of the arms transfer program at SIPRI. “At 43 percent, its share of global arms exports is more than four times as much as the next-largest exporter, France.”
SIPRI found that Ukraine, which Russia invaded in February 2022, was the largest weapons importer between 2020 and 2024, with its number of imports nearly 100 times greater than they were between 2015 and 2019. Arms imports to European states surged by 155 percent in the same window, fueled by fears of Kremlin expansionism and pressure from the United States to rearm.
The findings come as the Trump administration puts pressure on Ukraine to end the war that began with Russia’s invasion more than three years ago. President Donald Trump has repeatedly said that the United States should be repaid for its military aid to Ukraine, much of which comes in the form of military equipment, by way of a proposed deal for U.S. access to Ukraine’s critical minerals.
🌎
Follow World news
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected Trump’s account of U.S. aid and pointed out that a large share of the $174 billion in U.S. funds appropriated by Congress in response to the war in Ukraine actually went to the U.S. defense industry.
At the same time, Trump has continued to urge countries to buy U.S. arms. As the White House casts doubts on NATO, Bloomberg News reported last month that U.S. officials had urged European allies to buy U.S. weapons to strengthen the alliance.
“Trump was an aggressive arms sales promoter in his first term,” said William D. Hartung, an expert on the arms trade who was not involved in the SIPRI study, adding that Trump had sided with arms contractors even when Saudi agents’ murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi led to calls to halt sales to Riyadh.
“The flip side is that sales are already so high, can he outdo that?” said Hartung, who works at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, a Washington think tank that promotes diplomatic engagement over conflict.
The study suggests that military aid to Ukraine has been a boon for U.S. arms producers. Most U.S. weapons sent to Ukraine have come through the presidential drawdown authority, under which the United States sends equipment from its stockpiles, or through another program that uses funding to procure arms directly from U.S. manufacturers.
The study counts weapons sent from stockpiles as exports. European countries also sent aid from their stockpiles, the replenishment of which drove still further demand for U.S. weapons.
The impact of the war in Gaza on the global arms trade is less distinct in the SIPRI data, which tracks arms deliveries rather than announcements. “There is usually a lag” between the announcement of sales and aid and its delivery, George said.
George added that if the value of U.S. arms exports to Ukraine and Israel were removed from SIPRI’s data, the United States would still have a 37 percent share of global arms exports between 2020 and 2024, making it the largest global exporter.
According to SIPRI data, Russian arms exports have fallen sharply, dropping by 64 percent in the most recent five-year period. Though the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led to widespread diplomatic isolation and economic sanctions on Russia, SIPRI found that the decline appeared to predate the war, with historic lows in export volumes in 2020 and 2021.
“Two of Russia’s most important arms-trading relationships had already weakened before 2022, with India increasingly favoring other suppliers, and China sourcing more arms from its own burgeoning arms industry,” said Pieter Wezeman, a senior researcher for SIPRI.
The Trump administration has said it hopes for greater military sales to India. Last month, the president told visiting Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi he would make “many billions of dollars” more in sales to India and would consider providing New Delhi with F-35 fighter jets.
Aircraft such as the F-35, America’s most advanced fighter jet, make up the largest category of U.S. arms sales, according to SIPRI, followed by missiles and armored vehicles like main battle tanks.
European nations entered into increased agreements to buy U.S. arms between 2020 and 2024, surpassing the Middle East as their largest regional destination. Some of those orders remain undelivered and would count toward still more growth in the next study window.
But much remains uncertain: U.S. aid to Ukraine is paused. Europe continues to boost defense spending, which could bolster the U.S. arms industry, while it also looks to curb reliance on Washington — which could ultimately mean spending funds elsewhere.
“Maybe some European allies will look inward instead of buying American due to Trump’s statements about and treatment of the alliance thus far,” Hartung said.