Two days have have passed since Geno Smith was traded from the Seattle Seahawks to the Las Vegas Raiders. Now, calmer and free from the whirlwind of opinions, we can analyze the move in a proper way. What good and bad can we take from this move?
Let’s go!
Why was Seattle right to trade Geno Smith?
At the time of the trade, we didn’t have this information, but it was soon confirmed that the QB asked for it. So, the answer to the question that names this topic is simple. The team was negotiating an extension with the QB, but there was a huge disparity between the values. Geno reportedly wanted $45M while Seattle (rightly) was thinking of something in the region of $35M. Another report indicated they were closer on terms but Smith’s side still rejected the deal without a counteroffer.
Sending Geno meant Seattle didn’t have to spend on the extension and also took the Seahawks’ cap space to over 60M. Geno works for the Raiders, who have the cap space for his extension, and have Pete Carroll, one of the few people in the league who trusts him and who needs quick results.
Forget the debate about whether Geno is good or not. Do you really believe that a 35-year-old QB would be worth $45 million? In fact, forget the fans’ differing opinions. Let’s think about how the league views Geno Smith. If he was really worth that much, why weren’t there other teams that entered the fight for his trade? The Raiders sent almost a fourth-rounder for him, and no other team could send more?
Why did Seattle make a mistake in trading Geno Smith?
The first reason is Leverage.
That’s the quick answer. Free agency starts on Monday, and according to league rules, there could be no contact with other teams’ free agents. In other words, Seattle would start free agency with only Sam Howell (in fact, the QB that no one trusts was traded for almost the same draft pick as Geno).
Forget the name of the QB that Seattle will trade. Once QB “X” is negotiating with Seattle, if he is worth 20M, he will ask for 25M knowing how “desperate” the team is that is without a QB.
The second reason is that free agency and the draft have few names to trust. It was a very risky move and if there is no real, well-structured plan, it borders on irresponsibility.
What awaits us in the future?
Just as I addressed the subject in the article about the DK Metcalf trade (which has now just happened since he’s going to the Pittsburgh Steelers), the problem is who controls the resources. The team has over $60M in the cap. What’s the point if the team will spend that amount on signing Sam Darnold for $35-40M? If Geno Smith only had three decent seasons in his NFL career, Darnold only had one.
I believe the best thing to do is to invest a good part of the cap in the OL and reinforce the DL. Bring in a veteran for a lower price and look for the highest potential prospects who may need a year on the bench to really shine. Quinn Ewers and Jaxson Dart fit that description.