Likewise, proof of its frontline impact also became clear over the weekend, with a Russian breakthrough in Kursk, where after a surprise cross-border incursion launched last summer, Ukraine had carved out a salient inside Russia. Using mostly North Korean troops, Russia had been chipping away at this salient for weeks. And, according to Ukrainian military sources who spoke with POLITICO, the breakthrough was partly a result of the U.S. intelligence shut-off, which gave Russia an edge it’s been quick to exploit.
Now, around 10,000 elite Ukrainian troops are at risk of being encircled.
The cross-border Kursk operation had been, in part, conceived as a morale-booster to lift flagging Ukrainian spirits — and it did so. It also showed allies (and Russia) that Ukraine’s military still has some waspish offensive capabilities. But a defeat in Kursk — and there are unconfirmed reports of a high death toll, with possibly hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers dead — would compound plummeting morale.
But it isn’t only a severe setback in Kursk worrying Ukrainian lawmaker Maryana Bezuhla, who, until recently, served on the Ukrainian parliament’s defense and intelligence committee. Alarmed by the combination of the intelligence cut-off and the suspension of military aid, she fears Russia will now be tempted to mount devastating ballistic missile strikes on Ukrainian city centers.
“I just want to emphasize it’s insane because this suspension could impact our cities, our civilians. If they decided to, the Russians could use this opportunity, for example, to launch hundreds of missiles and drones and combat planes, and destroy some city center,” she told POLITICO.
She fears recruitment and mobilization — already a huge challenge — will be severely hampered thanks so the withdrawal of U.S. support, resulting in more draft-dodging and insufficient manpower on the frontlines. “Of course, it will be more difficult. The 180-degree turn by Trump isn’t going to be good for recruiting and mobilization,” she said.
Nonetheless, she dismisses all talk of a peace settlement. “What Trump doesn’t get is that this isn’t just about Ukraine. Even if we capitulated, that won’t finish the conflict because it’s not only about us. It’s part of a bigger global conflict.”
Kellogg says Trump acted the way he did — in his words, by hitting the mule across the nose with a two-by-four — in order to get Ukraine’s attention. He certainly has it now.