When Trump Administration envoys meet tomorrow with Ukrainian negotiators in Saudi Arabia, the Americans will face a fast changing geopolitical kaleidoscope. Given the cold shoulder by Mr. Trump, the Ukrainians increasingly throw their lot in with the Europeans.
The Europeans, seeing the Trump Administration going wobbly on the North Atlantic Treaty, are starting to shape a post-NATO defense vehicle. In a break with 80 years of history, Europe aims to take the steering wheel. America may be in the back seat — or not in the car at all.
After allowing their militaries to atrophy since the end of the Cold War, European countries now are making a U-turn. Last week, leaders of the 27 members of the European Union supported fiscal changes to allow the Union to borrow $160 billion to lend to member governments to spend on defense. The plan would loosen budget rules to allow military spending of $700 billion during the second half of this decade.
“Europe must take up this challenge, this arms race,” Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, said at the special defense summit at Brussels. Noting that Europe’s economy is far larger than Russia’s, he added that Europe “must win” the arms race. The European Union has a collective economy of $20 trillion, about nine times larger than Russia. However, this year, military spending is about equal — $460 billion on each side, the International Institute for Strategic Studies, reported last month.
French President Emmanuel Macron, right, greets Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk as he arrives for an informal meeting of leaders from key European Union nations and the United Kingdom at the Elysee Palace in Paris, Monday, Feb. 17, 2025.
President Macron, right, greets Prime Minister Donald Tusk of Poland at the Elysee Palace, Paris, February 17, 2025. AP/Aurelien Morissard
In Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, the parties aiming to form the new coalition government agreed to lift limits on borrowing to fund defense spending. In real terms, this could allow Germany to double spending on its military, to $100 billion a year. Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting, Friedrich Merz, has warned that the combination of a hostile Russia and an uninterested America means that it is “five minutes to midnight” for Europe.
Shocked by Trump Administration skepticism of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, European public opinion increasingly supports greater defense spending. A recent Ipsos poll in France found that 68 percent of respondents supported increasing defense spending.
France’s defense minister, Sebastien Lecornu, tells La Tribune Dimanche, sponsor of the French poll, that French defense spending should be $100 billion a year, double this year’s level. Turning to Ukraine, he said: “The idea is to continue to take older equipment out of the French army and give it to Ukraine. I’m going to speed up these disposals.”
A separate Ipsos poll in Britain finds that 44 percent of respondents wanted to see more spending on defense. While 59 percent support Britain’s backing of Ukraine, the portion of poll respondents saying Mr. Trump is doing a bad job hit two thirds, almost double the level of last month.
French President Emmanuel Macron, center, poses with President-elect Donald Trump, left, and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Elysee Palace, Saturday, Dec. 7, 2024 in Paris. (AP Photo/Aurelien Morissard)
President Macron, center, poses with President Trump, left, and President Zelensky at the Elysee Palace, December 7, 2024, Paris. AP/Aurelien Morissard
In the face of Washington’s aid suspension, the leaders of 26 EU countries vowed Thursday to continue aid to Ukraine. They also said there can be no negotiations on Ukraine without Ukraine. Norway’s prime minister, Jonas Gahr Stoere, said Thursday his nation will more than double its military aid to Ukraine this year, to almost $8 billion. Mr. Stoere told Norway’s parliament that the nation, a founding member of the North Atlantic Treaty, faces “the most serious security situation for our country since World War II.”
The next day, the Kremlin responded by denouncing “the militarisation of the EU.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned reporters: “There could be a need to take appropriate measures in response to ensure our security.”
After Russia’s invasion of 2022, Ukraine became the largest arms importer in the world, according to a report released today by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Just under half of those imports came from the United States, reports the think tank. Mr. Trump’s freeze on American arms transfers to Ukraine is seen as a tactic to force Kyiv to make concessions at the negotiating table.
Beyond Ukraine, Europe became the world’s largest importing region, sourcing about half of imports from America. During the five-year period, Americas’ share of global arms trade jumped to 43 percent, up from 35 percent. Russia’s share of the global trade plummeted to 8 percent in 2024, from 21 percent in 2020. This was attributed to sanctions, Russia’s need for weapons and poor systems performance in the Russia-Ukraine war.
In the latest sign that the Trump Administration wants to reduce Washington’s once iron-clad commitments to NATO, senior Trump advisor Elon Musk agreed yesterday with a tweet saying the “US should “Exit NATO *now*!” Mr. Musk tweeted: “We really should.” He added that it “doesn’t make sense for America to pay for the defense of Europe.” Under a 2023 law, a president can’t withdraw from NATO without a two-thirds majority in the Senate or an act of Congress.
President Trump speaks during the NATO summit, Dec. 4, 2019, at Watford, England.
President Trump speaks during the NATO summit, December 4, 2019, at Watford, England. AP/ Evan Vucci, File
On Thursday, Mr. Trump said that America should calibrate its aid, favoring countries that invest in their own defense. “It’s common sense, right?” the president told reporters in the Oval Office. “If they don’t pay, I’m not going to defend them. No, I’m not going to defend them.”
Mr. Trump, in his first presidency, asked the 32 member countries of NATO to pay 2 percent of their GDP on defense. On his return to the White House, he moved the goal posts, to 5 percent. America currently spends about 3.4 percent.
Although Secretary of State Rubio arrives in Saudi Arabia today for talks with Ukrainian officials, Mr. Trump has not said much in recent days that would inspire confidence among Ukrainian officials.
“Russia is absolutely ‘pounding’ Ukraine on the battlefield right now,” Mr. Trump posted on Truth Social Friday, four days after he suspended military and intelligence aid to Ukraine. Referring to Mr. Putin’s bombing of Ukrainian cities, he later told reporters: “I think probably anybody in that position would be doing that right now.” Looking to peace talks, he said: “I’m finding it more difficult, frankly, to deal with Ukraine.”
Returning to the topic of Ukraine yesterday on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures,” Mr. Trump continued his criticism of Ukraine’s president, saying: “[He] took money out of this country under Biden like candy from a baby… And I just don’t think he’s grateful.” Then he said a line that dovetails with the Kremlin’s view. He predicted Ukraine “may not survive anyway.”