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Liverpool are 15 points ahead of Arsenal in the Premier League title race.
There might not be a bigger certainty in sport. If Liverpool fail to win the Premier League title this season, it will be a collapse that will never be forgotten.
Gary Neville branded Chelsea ‘The Billion Pound Bottlejobs’ after their loss to the Reds in the Carabao Cup final last season. Should the Reds jettison then the former Manchester United captain would be markedly more scathing in his criticism - and no-one could disagree.
Reds rampant
Given the tricky fixtures that presented themselves to Liverpool, Arsenal were praying that they would be handed an opening to cut the gap and put the pressure on. Yet the opposite outcome has ensued. The Reds earned victories over Manchester City and Newcastle United as well as surviving a hiccup to beat Southampton 3-1.
In that flawless run of results, Arsenal have accrued just two points. A 1-0 home loss to West Ham was followed up by draws against Nottingham Forest and Manchester United respectively. As a result, Liverpool are 15 points clear at the summit of the table. Statisticians Opta give Arne Slot’s side just a 0.34 per cent chance of throwing the silverware away.
Slot will still maintain the stance that title No.20 in Liverpool’s history is not secured. But most think otherwise. Even the most pessimistic Kopites cannot argue that the Anfield trophy cabinet is about to get another gong added to it.
Supporters are unlikely to be making plans at weekends from now until the end of the season. Certainly, in the final games, they won’t want to be double-booked and miss a chance to experience the exact moment when Liverpool secure the Premier League. Fixtures and dates are being earmarked in the diary.
An exact match cannot be given at this stage. Given that Arsenal have slipped up three times in as many games, it could be sooner than when Liverpool can mathematically claim the crown - which is the trip to Chelsea on the weekend of Friday 2 May. The Reds require 16 points to ensure that they cannot be caught by the Gunners.
What AI has predicted
As a bit of fun, we decided to ask Artificial Intelligence when Liverpool could get the silverware in their hands. Grok has been designed to ‘maximise truth and objectivity’ and ‘offers real-time search, image generation, trend analysis, and more’. According to the application, the most realistic scenario is that Liverpool will clinch the title on Saturday 26 April when they play Tottenham Hotspur at Anfield.
It says: “A more realistic timeline assumes Liverpool maintain their strong form (they’ve lost only once this season) and Arsenal win most, but not all, of their remaining games. The average points total for Premier League champions over the last decade is around 91-92 points, while second-place teams average around 83-84. Let’s project a plausible outcome: If Liverpool win six of their remaining nine games (18 points) and draw one (1 point), they’d finish with 89 points. This pace (2 points per game) is slightly below their current 2.41 points per game but accounts for potential fatigue or tougher matches. If Arsenal win eight of their 10 remaining games (24 points) and lose two, they’d finish with 79 points, a strong but insufficient total.
“Under this scenario, Liverpool could clinch the title as early as April 26, 2025, when they host Tottenham Hotspur. If they’re still 15 points ahead going into that weekend (e.g., 82 points to Arsenal’s 67 after Liverpool’s April 12 game and Arsenal’s April 12 game), a win or draw against Tottenham would make it impossible for Arsenal to catch up, with only 12 points left to play for thereafter. This assumes Arsenal drop at least a few points before then, which aligns with their recent form.”
The earliest date Liverpool can win the title is on Saturday 12 April. If the Reds earn victories over Everton and West Ham United, while Arsenal were defeated in their next four games against Chelsea, Fulham, Everton and Brentford.
Grok’s prediction added: “Given Liverpool’s consistency under Arne Slot, their defensive solidity (only 28 goals conceded), and Mohamed Salah’s exceptional form (25 goals, 16 assists), they’re unlikely to falter significantly. Arsenal would need to be near-perfect while hoping Liverpool drop points in at least 4-5 games—an improbable combination. Realistically, Liverpool will win the Premier League title on or around April 26, 2025, against Tottenham, assuming they maintain a steady pace and Arsenal stumble at least once or twice more. Their current 99.66% title probability (per Opta) supports this outlook, making it a question of ‘when,’ not ‘if’ barring a historic meltdown.”
Related topics:ArsenalChelseaPremier League
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