Turkey, as one of the geopolitically significant countries, serves as a bridge between the Western and Eastern worlds. In this context, Turkey seeks to maintain normal relations with both the West and the East. However, as a NATO member country, the characteristics of the Western world are more evident in Türkiye in various aspects. In this regard, Turkey collaborates with European countries within the framework of various strategic projects. Although Turkey is not an official member of the European Union, it maintains certain relations with the bloc. There have also been negative developments between Turkey and the European Union from time to time. Despite these developments, issues related to Turkey's accession to the European Union have recently been reignited.
Relations between Turkey and the European Union started in 1959 when Turkey applied to the European Economic Community. The Ankara Agreement signed on September 12, 1963 formed the legal basis of the relations. This agreement envisaged three phases, namely “Preparatory”, “Transitional” and “Final Period” until full membership was achieved. The Preparatory phase covered the years 1963-1970. The Transitional Phase started with the Additional Protocol signed in 1970 and entered into force on January 1, 1973.
One of the interesting aspects of the Transitional Phase was that Turkey applied to become a full member of the European Union in 1987, regardless of the association process. However, this request was not welcomed and Turkey did not become a member of the European Union. The 90s saw different dynamics in relations between the parties. As a result of negotiations between 1992 and 1995, an agreement on the establishment of a Customs Union between Turkey and the European Union was signed in 1995.
At the Luxembourg Summit on 12-13 December 1997, it was stated that Turkey did not have the political and economic conditions to start membership negotiations. At the Helsinki Summit on December 10-11, 1999, Turkey was accepted as a candidate country for EU membership. The Copenhagen Summit Conclusions of 12-13 December 2002 emphasized the 1999 Helsinki decision of the European Council, which stated that Turkey would join the Union on the basis of the same criteria as the other candidate countries.
The Brussels Summit of 17-18, June 2004 dealt with Turkey-EU relations. In the Final Declaration of this Summit, Turkey's progress in the reform process so far was appreciated. In 2008, negotiations continued in many areas. After the start of negotiations, there was a certain intensification of relations between Turkey and the EU, but not much progress in terms of bringing Turkey closer to membership.
After 2010, the positive trend in relations started to weaken. As a continuation of this weakening, the problem was further complicated by the failure to resolve the Cyprus problem, some processes in Turkey between 2013 and 2016, mass protests and the purging of the political and military elite following the failed coup in 2016. All this was perceived by the European Union as Turkey moving away from democratic values.
In 2019, the European Parliament called on the Commission and member states to formally suspend negotiations with Turkey, mainly due to the deterioration of the rule of law and freedom of expression in that country. However, at a later stage, the European Union agreed to launch a positive political agenda between the EU and Turkey, paying special attention to “modernizing the Customs Union and trade facilitation” and “continuing cooperation on migration issues”. In 2023, despite some difficulties in relations with Turkey, a number of proposals on possible areas of cooperation were put forward.
**Current State of Relations**
It is possible to evaluate the current relations between Turkey and the European Union from two perspectives:
1. Based on the economic developments and meetings that took place between 2023 and 2024, as well as their outcomes;
2. In terms of the significance of the London Summit on March 2, 2025.
First and foremost, it should be noted that the total trade volume between Turkey and the EU increased more than fourfold in 2020, reaching €132.4 billion. In 2023, Turkey became the EU's fifth-largest trading partner. More than 40% of Turkey's total export trade in 2023 was conducted with the EU. The EU's exports of goods to Turkey amounted to €111 billion in 2023, while its imports from Turkey reached €95.5 billion.
According to the International Trade in Services Statistics (excluding travel), Turkey's service exports increased by 19.2% in 2023, reaching $56.5 billion, whereas service imports rose by 15.3% to $41.4 billion. In 2023, Turkey’s largest service exports were directed toward the European Union, amounting to $21.86 billion, while imports from the EU stood at $18.648 billion. Germany ranked first in service exports, accounting for a 12.4% share with $6.987 billion.
Turkey is likely to remain one of the EU's main trade partners in 2024. In January 2024, Germany was the primary export partner country, with exports amounting to $1.762 billion. In November 2024, Turkey recorded exports worth $20.6 billion and imports totaling $28.5 billion. According to the latest statistics from November 2024, Turkey's top export destinations included Germany ($1.55 billion), the United Kingdom ($1.33 billion), the United States ($1.28 billion), Italy ($1.16 billion), and Iraq ($935 million). Meanwhile, its main import sources were Russia ($3.81 billion), China ($3.52 billion), Germany ($2.18 billion), and Italy ($2.18 billion).
These statistics illustrate the dominance of certain EU member states in both the export and import processes. From a diplomatic perspective, the EU Summit held on 29-30 June 2023, emphasized the strategic importance of cooperation with Turkey, highlighting that maintaining a stable environment in the Eastern Mediterranean is in the EU’s best interest.
Throughout 2024, various steps were taken to enhance Turkey-EU relations. For instance, on August 29, 2024, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan participated in the EU Foreign Ministers’ meeting for the first time in five years, marking a significant step toward improving relations.
**Turkey in the London Summit**
The Summit on cooperation for Ukraine and the security of the continent was held in London on 2 March 2025. The summit, attended by 17 European leaders, resulted in agreements on four key issues:
1. The continuation of military aid to Ukraine;
2. Ensuring Kyiv’s presence at the peace negotiations table;
3. Preventing future Russian aggression;
4. Establishing a "coalition of volunteers" to defend Ukraine and ensure peace.
One of the key aspects of the London Summit was the invitation extended to Turkey, a non-EU member state. The "grain deal" reached in the next phase of the "Istanbul negotiations" held in March 2022 played a crucial role in taking significant steps toward resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Since then, Turkey has consistently maintained balanced relations with both sides, advocating for peace. Even today, Turkey demonstrates its mediation efforts to facilitate the implementation of negotiations. This factor could be significant in revitalizing and strengthening relations between Turkey and the European Union through Turkey’s close participation in the London Summit.
The London Summit is an initiative aimed at fostering political dialogue and cooperation to enhance the security, stability, and prosperity of the European continent. Following the election of the new U.S. president, Donald Trump's remarks on the need for European countries to assume greater responsibility for their own defense have become a source of concern for European nations. Another reason for Turkey’s participation in the London Summit is the emerging trends regarding new directions in security cooperation between Turkey and the EU. In this regard, it is worth noting that Turkey was not invited to two previous meetings held in France.
Following the London Summit, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan addressed Europe’s evolving security landscape, stating that "it is becoming increasingly impossible for Europe to maintain its presence as a global actor without Turkey."
Similarly, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who represented Turkey at the London Summit, highlighted the different perspectives emerging within the EU due to the recent shifts in the U.S. position and the clarification of this stance. He noted that these issues were discussed during the negotiations. Fidan also emphasized the significance of Turkey’s contribution to both "a potential peace agreement in Ukraine and the reconstruction of the European Security Architecture."
Within the framework of the London Summit, discussions between Turkish and EU leaders created conditions for taking significant steps toward revitalizing relations and deepening strategic cooperation between the parties.
**Conclusion and Evaluation**
One of the key advantages of using the historical-comparative method in research is the ability to make prognostic judgments about the future of Turkey’s European Union membership by considering past events. When examining both historical and contemporary developments, it becomes evident that the issue of Turkey’s EU accession has remained consistently relevant. However, for various reasons, no fundamental steps have been taken to resolve this matter. The research text addresses these challenges to some extent.
It is also important to note that the obstacles to Turkey’s EU membership are partially linked to internal processes within the EU itself. European values are openly violated in some member states, leading to an increase in intolerance and prejudice among the core members of the Union. As a result, according to former EU High Representative Josep Borrell, Turkey, once a candidate for EU membership, is now perceived by Europeans as "the biggest foreign policy challenge."
Nevertheless, in recent years, Turkey’s mediation role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has reaffirmed its status as one of the world's key power centers. The invitation of Turkey, a non-EU member, to the London Summit held on 2 March 2025 and its representation at the level of Foreign Minister once again demonstrated the EU's continued need for Turkey. This issue is extensively analyzed in the research text.
The analysis of past and present events reveals that even if Turkey is not accepted as an EU member, it remains the Union’s primary strategic partner on key issues such as the economy, climate, migration, security, and counterterrorism. Prognostic statements about the future can emerge in two main forms:
1. Turkey-EU relations will deepen, and the evolving geopolitical landscape will pave the way for Turkey’s membership.
2. Turkey will continue to develop and strengthen its bilateral relations with the EU in various aspects without becoming a member.
Ultimately, over the next decade, the second scenario is expected to become more evident. In any case, given Turkey’s unique global position and role, it is impossible to envision a European Union without Turkey. Even without full membership, relations will continue to expand, as Turkey benefits more from the EU than some of its member states and continuously enhances its potential.
##### Source: Ramil Jalilov is from Azerbaijan. He works as a researcher at the International Diplomatic Relations Academic Research and Education Association, based in Turkey. **Photo: Turkish and EU flags**
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