The prospects and perils of the UK taking the lead on clean power in the wake of the United States’s withdrawal from the Paris Accords remain to be seen.
Having undergone its own transition away from coal and led initiatives to accelerate the phase-out of finance for fossil fuels, the new Labour government in the UK is seeking to position itself as a global leader of efforts to boost a transition to clean power. Home of the first Industrial Revolution and one of the world’s major financial hubs, the city of London, to oil majors such as BP and Shell and a new GB Energy company, the UK might be well placed to take up this mantle. Aiming for a mostly decarbonised grid by 2030, the idea is to “make Britain a clean energy superpower.” But as this is a crowded space with many initiatives already in existence, what is the value added of UK leadership, and can it deliver?
In November 2024, UK Prime Minister, Sir Kier Starmer launched the Global Clean Power Alliance (GCPA) at the G20 in Rio de Janeiro. Touted as a way to position the UK “at the very heart of the single most significant technological challenge and opportunity this century,” its main focus is accelerating the mobilization of private finance, combined with building country partnerships to build capacity and overcome barriers to deploying that finance. The alliance is currently comprised of the UK, Brazil, Australia, Barbados, Canada, Chile, Colombia, France, Germany, Morocco, Norway, Tanzania, and the African Union, with the European Union and, for now, the United States also partnering with the UK.
It has several key missions, the first and most developed of which is on finance. A key challenge here is that despite the dominant focus on de-risking private finance, the track record is patchy. In fact, public sector finance has been rising faster and contributed a greater share to closing the climate finance gap over the past decade. Using scarce public funds to “lever” private finance and mobilize it behind ambitious decarbonisation goals may make some sense. Making those funds even more scarce, as the UK government recently did by cutting its aid budget to 0.3% of gross national income, makes the challenge even harder. Though it is yet to be determined, a second mission or pillar of the GCPA could be energy security and supply chains. Here, the alliance could operate as a “reverse OPEC” to a “buyers’ club” for critical minerals.
How much power and influence it can wield to play such a role will depend on how many other key economies can be persuaded to join the alliance. To do so, these economies will want to know what the value added of this new initiative is and how it will benefit their own journeys towards clean power.
We know from previous experience that successful initiatives are those which respond to a clear demand, do something different, operate an effective partnership model, and set clear deadlines and milestones around which finance is mobilised. One of the pillars of the finance mission, co-led by Brazil, seeks to improve coordination and simplify access to international support through the rollout of nationally and locally-led country platforms, such as the forthcoming new Brazil Investment Platform. But clear deadlines and milestones are currently lacking. With a run time of two years, the details on how this mission will become operational need to emerge soon if it is to have the impact desired by the UK government. The forthcoming IEA summit on energy security in April in London could provide an opportunity to advance progress in this regard by agreeing key timelines for efforts in the years ahead.
It’s not also just about global politics, however. The true test of leadership is whether the fine words expressed in international fora are matched by deeds at home. In other words, does the UK government walk the talk?
Unfortunately, domestic leadership on climate remains fragile. The UK government is currently consulting on its proposal to end new oil and gas licenses in the North Sea and there is ongoing uncertainty around the approval of the Rosebank oilfield in the North Sea, the UK’s biggest undeveloped reserve. If this goes ahead, combined with other recent decisions to back airport expansions at Heathrow and Gatwick, claims to global leadership on decarbonisation start to look somewhat hollow.
Other complementary options are available to the UK. It could lend its weight to the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance led by Denmark and Costa Rica, with many other associated members. It could show solidarity with many small island developing states that are leading calls for a new treaty on the non-proliferation of fossil fuels.
Mobilising private finance for clean power is clearly a critical and laudable goal. But this is only half the story. Adding more renewables to the energy mix without displacing or substituting fossil fuels will still leave us wildly off track in meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement on climate change. A bolder and more balanced approach would seek to lever the UK’s unique position as a leading financial centre to align financial regulation with the goals of decarbonisation while also demonstrating that there are pathways to prosperity beyond fossil fuels. Without a clear exit from fossil fuels, the UK’s claims to global leadership on energy and climate lack credibility.
Peter Newell is Professor of International Relations at the University of Sussex UK and leads theSUS POL project on supply-side climate policies.Freddie Daley is a researcher at the University of Sussex working on the SUS POL project.
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