Nottingham Forest and Aston Vila have been told it is unlikely they will be able to compete consistently in the top echelons of English football despite one of them already participating in the Champions League and the other on the cusp of qualification.
Both Forest and Villa did their top-four hopes a power of good by winning Premier League games at the weekend. Forest hosted Manchester City and won 1-0 while Villa went to Brentford and also took all three points with a 1-0 victory of their own.
Forest’s achievement in beating the current Premier League champions was lauded by Simon Jordan on TalkSport - but the debate soon broadened to the lasting impact teams like Villa, Forest and Newcastle United can have on “the cabal” that have dominated the game in England over the past decade or so.
Much of that is governed by the restrictions on spending laid down by the top-flight’s profitability and sustainability rules, and Jordan insists that will remain the case while the current rules or any new system restricts how much clubs can spend.
The former Crystal Palace owner told listeners: “We've got three examples of clubs that have had moments of time to break the orthodoxy, to change the direction of travel, to break the cabal. It's very rare, isn't it?
“And it doesn't happen in perpetuity and it doesn't happen consistently, and the teams that do it don't then go on to win anything. They have a moment in time, they participate in and amongst the rarefied air of the top end of the Premier League… they'll come for a period of time and they'll be gone.
“They're not going to stay there because they haven't got the ability to stay there because, as we know, the real thing that talks is the ability to spend money, and if you're restricted by the governance of the game, you are not going to progress.
“How are Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa going to get their turnovers up to £700m? How are they going to do it, because they're not allowed to spend without being able to have a certain amount of income to be able to match the obligations of the PSR.
“If they want to be able to be competitive, then they've got to spend bigger on wages, and that will mean they've got to get a bigger turnover. How are they going to get a bigger turnover to get better achievements on the field? And how do they do it in perpetuity if they can't actually fund it through their owners because their owners are being restricted from doing it? So they'll have these moments where they pop in and everyone goes, ‘Look, the cabal has been broken’, but it will not last.”
Jordan was not convinced by claims that the likes of Brighton, Fulham and Bournemouth have found a way to succeed without spending big.
He added: “I think Forest will have done remarkably well, but whilst it's great to see it and everyone should appreciate it, and the teams that do it should be lauded and applauded, the reason we are talking about it is because it is so rare.
“Even in the best case scenario you are allowed 70 per cent of your turnover going to wages and transfer fees. So if you've got a £250m to £300m turnover as Aston Villa might have, you are allowed to have £140 million worth of wages and associated costs, whereas if you're Manchester United or Liverpool and you've got £500m or £600m turnover, you've got double that to spend.
“So how do you close that gap? Unless ultimately the buying criteria of clubs like Man United is so poor that you catch them as a result. Any rule that governs the amount clubs can spend based upon a percentile of turnover, or a profit and loss ratio, means you cannot catch the bigger clubs.”
Victory over City left Forest third on 51 points, having won 15 of the 28 games they have played so far. It is a stunning turnaround after only avoiding relegation last season by six points.
Jordan added: “If we continue to see Arsenal not being able to deliver outcomes in the league, you might find that Forest finish second. What Nuno has done there is galvanise a group of players. They know what they are and they're currently focused on achieving outcomes.
“And fair play to the owner (Evangelos) Marinakis because he has supported whoever's been in there one way or another with a lot of money and a lot of resources.”
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