Look, you’re not getting an argument from me on this: Time is a flat circle. We’re endlessly repeating the same cycles in politics and culture, so why should we assume the world of sports is immune?
If you’re guided by the mantra Everything has happened before and will happen again, then, of course, you know in your heart that Aaron Rodgers is destined to be a Minnesota Viking. Historically, the Vikings have given you zero reason to doubt this. They’ll take any aging quarterback. Warren Moon, Randall Cunningham, Donovan McNabb. Even the patron saint of Vikings quarterbacks, Fran Tarkenton, had his second stint in Purple through his mid-to-late-30s.
And of course there’s the elephant in the room, Brett Favre. The Vikes grabbed the former Green Bay Packers quarterback after a mediocre stint with the New York Jets and rode the Hall of Famer to an NFC Championship game appearance. Why wouldn’t they do the same with Rodgers?
There are a lot of reasons. For one, bringing in a player with the … let’s say, mercurial reputation Rodgers carries with him would clash with Minnesota’s tight-knit locker room. There’s also the fraught situation that bringing in a veteran quarterback to play in the stead of a first-round pick in J.J. McCarthy could present. But all the persistent bluster of these rumors overlooks something crucial.
Aaron Rodgers, the player, doesn’t offer any upside for the Vikings.
Statistically, you can’t call him bad. If you want to point out that Rodgers finished eighth in the NFL with 3,897 yards and tied with Josh Allen for seventh with 28 touchdown passes, I don’t have a real argument. If you want to say he can help some QB-needy would-be contender, even if he turns 42 in December, then fine.
But he won’t be able to help Minnesota.
You can come away from last season justifiably believing that Kevin O’Connell can make it work with any quarterback. After all, if the coach could maximize Sam Darnold, then a quarterback with the brain and experience of Rodgers shouldn’t be an issue. Still, that assessment ignores exactly what made Darnold such a good fit for KOC’s offense.
Darnold was all upside. It never clicked with the Jets or the Carolina Panthers — if it had, Darnold wouldn’t have signed for $10 million last season. However, Darnold always had a big arm and good mobility. Being in an ideal situation and with elite coaching allowed him to tap into that potential for the first time in his career. Minnesota’s offense relied on Darnold making huge throws downfield or rocket passes through impossibly tight windows to deep threats like Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.
Sure, it remains to be seen if McCarthy can offer the same thing, but we know Rodgers isn’t that. At least, not at age 41. Look at how both quarterbacks were used last year. Darnold was tied for 10th among 39 NFL quarterbacks with 200 attempts in Intended Air Yards per Attempt (8.4). Rodgers (6.8) was tied for 32nd with Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield. It’s been a steep dropoff since 2018 and 2019 when he averaged 8.8 IAY/A with the Packers in his age-35 and -36 seasons.
Throwing deep isn’t everything, of course, and Rodgers is smart enough to make a dink-and-dunk style where he paces himself with big throws work. But will it be at the pace the Vikings need to maximize their receiving talent? It’s easy to say when you’re not in a position to run a team with Super Bowl aspirations, but those aren’t odds I’d be willing to take.
Unless rumors that Rodgers may go to Minnesota or the (now-dormant) rumblings this offseason hinting that Darnold might be back in Purple for 2025 are completely player/agent-driven, they speak to one thing: The Vikings are nervous about handing the keys to a contender over to a rookie. And, hey, they should be! It’s a major risk, even if you love McCarthy’s arm, mobility, and poise.
But — and this has to be understood — taking on Rodgers and making him a starter (which, be honest, they’d have to do) is just as big of a risk. Minnesota would be gambling that Rodgers could find the fountain of youth Cunningham did in 1998, and Favre sipped from in 2009. They’ll be betting that Rodgers will be better than those two because, ultimately, Cunningham and Favre fell just short. And, most ludicrously, they’re wagering that if things don’t work out, they’ll be able to turn things over to a rookie without Rodgers making a stink or a rift developing in the locker room.
Rodgers would set a baseline of competency for the 2025 Vikings, which is great for a team looking to go 10-7. But this isn’t a team looking for competence. It’s looking for excellence. It’s looking for upside. If things go great for Rodgers in 2025, then Minnesota has a stopgap for a year. If McCarthy goes off in 2025, the team will have its field general for a decade.
It’s rolling the dice either way, so why use the roll on Rodgers?