It is not true that Trump has no way to quickly bring Putin to the table for real negotiations.
The slogan “Make America Great Again” evokes many positive feelings in Ukrainians. No one in Ukraine has forgotten that thanks to the policies of the Republican administrations of Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, the Soviet Union was defeated in the Cold War, which created the conditions for Ukraine to gain independence. Ukrainians also feel grateful for the continued support for their struggle for independence against Russian aggression, starting with President Donald Trump’s first term.
Therefore, Ukrainians were very surprised and disappointed when they learned that the new American administration sometimes believes that negotiations on the fate of Ukraine can be conducted without taking into account the interests of the Ukrainian people.
Of course, Ukrainians want peace talks and an end to the war more than anyone else. Ukraine has lost many of its best sons and daughters, a significant part of its economy. Russian missiles are constantly exploding over our heads.
But the question is not to end the war. The question is how the war will end. If it is a temporary ceasefire with the resumption of hostilities in a year or less, when Russia will rest and strengthen its armed forces with supplies from China, North Korea and Iran, this is not the end of the war, and this cannot be called peace.
But such an end to the war is also not beneficial to the United States. In essence, it means that Moscow has outplayed Washington, and deceived it. America does not look great if it can be deceived so easily. (I should note that America does not look great also when it agrees to exchange hostage Marc Fogel for Russian cybercriminal Alexander Vinnik, and just a few days later Russia arrests another American citizen Kalob Byers on similar charges—this is exactly what Russia’s deception and humiliation of America looks like.) Unilateral U.S. steps to bring Russia out of international isolation and emphasize its status as a great power (which has long been out of date) without any gain for the American side do not look like a demonstration of strength.
As a great negotiator, Trump knows what negotiations are. These are concessions from each side to the other.
It takes two to tango. Peace negotiations require the consent of both sides. Ukraine’s consent has been indicated repeatedly. At the same time, Russia does not agree to negotiations, Russia agrees only to Ukrainian surrender. What else can we call the Russian demands for the reduction of the Ukrainian army and weapons and permission for Russian agents to operate freely in Ukraine under the cover of Russian political parties and religious and cultural organizations? This is an invitation to the next more destructive war. This is not peace; this is a clear victory for Russia and a demonstration of America’s weakness worse than a withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Today, Putin is not ready for negotiations because from his point of view, everything is fine:
There is still money (although the National Welfare Fund has been burned to two-thirds),
There are still people (although they are not drafting the necessary quantities and are looking for various sources: either convicts or North Koreans),
There is still some old Soviet military equipment left,
The economy is still holding up (although the problems are rapidly growing),
Tankers are moving and oil is being sold,
Schemes for circumventing sanctions are working,
Most importantly, there is daily advancement of the front line (although less and less, reaching the minimum).
What can Trump do to force Putin into real negotiations when the Russian leader is ready for concessions that will demonstrate America’s strength? There are many options. This includes hellish sanctions, the closure of ways to circumvent them, international pressure, etc. But all these methods require not only time but also the consent of other players in Europe and Asia.
Some Western experts write that Trump has no real leverage to quickly bring Putin to the negotiating table for real negotiations that will ensure a lasting peace. They say that Russia is close to achieving the goals of the war.
These are two big lies. The goal of the war for Russia is not to seize territories. They have too many of their own abandoned and undeveloped territories. The goal of the war is to destroy Ukrainian statehood, and nothing is achieved with this. Russia has not been able to achieve a single strategic goal in three years of full-scale war: it has not captured a single regional center (except for Kherson, liberated by Ukraine in the same year), has not destroyed the Ukrainian energy sector, has not stopped the Ukrainian economy, has not secured dominance in the air or at sea, etc. On the contrary, today Russia is further from its goals than three years ago. Russia is weaker today than at any time in history. All that remains is deception, and Moscow is following this path.
It is also not true that Trump has no way to quickly bring Putin to the table for real negotiations. Rapid deliveries of missile weapons that will destroy Russian logistics and airfields 250-300 km from the front line will lead to a freeze in hostilities soon. Russia will lose not only the desire but also the technical ability to advance. And then Putin will have to ask Trump for negotiations, and not the other way around, as is the case now.
Many of America’s opponents dream of Trump showing his incapacity. This is possible only if Putin succeeds in his planned deception. Given that Trump is a strong leader and an experienced negotiator, this is unlikely to succeed. The main thing is to act from a position of strength, not weakness.
About the author: Valerii Pekar
Valerii Pekar is a professor at the Kyiv-Mohyla Business School and Business School of the Ukrainian Catholic University, an author of four books, and a former member of the National Reform Council.
Image: Oleh Dubyna / Shutterstock.com