Although the Eagle S is being released, members of its crew remain under investigation.
The Scandinavian nation of Finland has a long, unpleasant history with its eastern neighbor Russia, as was most morbidly manifested in the Winter War of 1939-1940 (a pyrrhic victory for the Soviet Union in which Joseph Stalin gained Finland’s eastern province of Karelia but at the cost of 50,000-150,000 Red Army and Soviet Air Force troops).
Therefore, with the benefit of hindsight, it should come as no surprise that Finland joined NATO on April 4, 2023. Fast-forward to the current year, and what is a bit of a surprise is that the Finns released a tanker that’s a suspected member of Russia’s “shadow fleet” and a prime suspect in a recent act of sabotage. Are the Finns letting the crew get off scot-free, or is there more to the story than meets the eye? The National Interest will now attempt to take a deeper dive into this incident.
The “Shadow Fleet” Explained and Defined
Before we get into the metaphorical meat-and-potatoes of the story, some background on the so-called “shadow fleet”—aka, the “dark fleet”—is in order for the benefit of any of our readers who might not be familiar with the concept. For that, we turn to Elisabeth Braw of the Atlantic Council:
“SinceRussia’s invasion of Ukraine, the dark fleet of old vessels that lack proper insurance, have opaque ownership, and ‘flag hop’ between different permissive ship registries has grown explosively, to an estimated 1,400 ships. Their presence poses considerable risk to other ships, to the environment, and to countries experiencing maritime accidents caused by the vessels. In addition to serving the transportation needs of Russia (as well asIran,North Korea, andVenezuela), the shadow fleet forms quintessential ‘gray zone’ aggression, causing tangible harm that targeted countries can do little to punish. If countries do try to block dark ships from their waters, or escort them away, it could prompt retaliation and escalation by Russia.”
In other words, a literal example of a “false flag” operation.
(“Gray Zone” conflict is closely associated, though not completely synonymous, with hybrid warfare; the former is considered a strategy whilst the latter is considered a tactical-level approach.)
The Baltics Christmastime Incident
On Christmas Day 2024, the Cook Islands-flagged oil tanker Eagle S is alleged to have deliberately dragged its anchor along the seabed of the Baltic Sea, causing damage to an electrical cable and four telecommunications lines. Eagle S is the only ship operated by Caravella LLC-FZ, a company registered in the United Arab Emirates; displacing 87,969 long tons and sporting a hull length of 750 feet (228.6 meters), she was originally built in China for the Singapore company FR8 Holdings PTE Ltd in 2006.
The Eagle S’s anchor was later discovered by the Swedish Navy, but as noted by Farah Mokrani ofEuroWeekly News, Finnish government investigators have now determined there is no longer sufficient reason to keep the ship under seizure.
This is arguably a prudent and pragmatic decision on the Finns’ part, bearing in mind the concluding sentence of the above-quoted passage from Atlantic Council—the Finnish Defence Forces are probably not quite physically or psychologically ready to risk triggering NATO’s Article 5 a mere two years after joining the alliance!
Accordingly, the alleged renegade tanker will be escorted by the Finnish Coast Guard (a component of the Finnish Border Guard until it reaches international waters.
More Than Meets the Eye
However, the story doesn’t quite end there. Just because the Eagle S is being released, that doesn’t mean her entire crew is getting away scot-free. As Mokrani notes, eight of her crewmembers remain under investigation, with three of them still barred from departing Finnish soil (the article doesn’t indicate the countries of citizenship of any of those eight crewmembers). Finnish authorities expect to wrap up their investigation by the end of April.
Stay tuned, ladies and gentlemen.
About the Author: Christian D. Orr
Christian D. Orr was previously a Senior Defense Editor forNational Security Journal (NSJ) and19FortyFive. He is a former Air Force Security Forces officer, Federal law enforcement officer, and private military contractor (with assignments worked in Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kosovo, Japan, Germany, and the Pentagon). Chris holds a B.A. in International Relations from the University of Southern California (USC) and an M.A. in Intelligence Studies (concentration in Terrorism Studies) from American Military University (AMU). He has also been published inThe Daily Torch,The Journal of Intelligence and Cyber Security, andSimple Flying. Last but not least, he is a Companion of the Order of theNaval Order of the United States (NOUS). If you’d like to pick his brain further, you can ofttimes find him at theOld Virginia Tobacco Company (OVTC) lounge in Manassas, Virginia, partaking of fine stogies and good quality human camaraderie.
Image: Wikimedia Commons.