The year 2025 represents a critical turning point in Europe’s security landscape as the region confronts the ongoing crisis in Ukraine and the shifting dynamics of international relations, particularly influenced by US President Donald Trump’s second administration.
Trump’s “America First” foreign policy has significantly altered the US relationship with Europe and NATO, leaving European nations increasingly isolated as they navigate the security vacuum created by the US withdrawal from traditional global leadership roles.
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In this context, Europe faces heightened pressure from Russian aggression without the steadfast support it once relied on from the US. In this article, we examine the strategic consequences of Trump’s disengagement from Europe, his favorable stance toward Russia, and the broader implications for European security.
US position on NATO
Under Trump, US foreign policy priorities were recalibrated, placing less emphasis on the defense of key NATO allies. This shift became particularly apparent in early 2025 when Trump decided to deprioritize US military assistance to Ukraine, cutting funding for essential programs that had previously strengthened Ukraine’s defense capabilities.
Advanced missile defense systems, surveillance technology, and logistical support crucial for countering Russia’s advancements have been significantly reduced under Trump. The rationale behind this policy shift was the belief that European nations should take on a larger share of the responsibility in addressing the conflict.
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This stance compelled NATO members, including France and Germany, to reevaluate their defense strategies and increase military aid to Ukraine. However, logistical and financial challenges in implementing these plans have delayed the delivery of necessary supplies, leaving Ukraine vulnerable and allowing Russia to gain a strategic advantage.
Additionally, by reducing aid to the military, Trump also shifted his stance on NATO. His insistence that European countries increase their financial contributions to the alliance created tensions, particularly among economically weaker nations like Greece and Italy. These divisions complicated NATO’s collective defense principle, which has historically been a cornerstone of European security.
Trump’s remark in early 2025, suggesting that the US might not come to the aid of a NATO member if attacked unless that nation “paid its fair share,” only added to the uncertainty. This pronouncement was perceived as a direct threat to NATO’s cohesion, leaving European nations questioning their security in a world where the US might not be a reliable ally. Consequently, the EU accelerated plans for an independent defense force led by France and Germany. However, this initiative faced numerous delays, leaving Europe vulnerable in the interim.
Russian empowerment
The most significant consequence of Trump’s foreign policy has been the emboldening of Russia. With NATO weakened and US involvement diminished, Russia has become more assertive in pursuing its strategic objectives.
The ongoing war in Ukraine has seen Russian forces make substantial territorial gains in contested regions like Donetsk and Luhansk. Additionally, Russian cyberattacks on European infrastructure have increased, and the Kremlin has used its economic influence, particularly through energy supply routes, to exert pressure on European governments.
Trump’s reluctance to confront Putin directly, along with his favorable rhetoric towards the Russian president, has fostered a situation where Putin feels increasingly confident in pursuing his territorial ambitions.
Trump’s “First America” rhetoric has shaped a transactional view of international relations, where alliances are perceived as business deals and multilateralism is deemed less significant. His admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin and his downplaying of Russian aggression in Ukraine have heightened tensions within Europe.
Trump’s repeated past calls to lift sanctions on Russia and his questioning of NATO’s collective defense have signaled that the US may no longer be committed to upholding the traditional balance of power in Europe. This approach has created a vacuum that Putin has quickly exploited, advancing his expansionist agenda in Ukraine and beyond.
The US policy shift has had a direct impact on the security situation in Ukraine and has also placed a strain on European economies and political stability. Increased defense spending, necessary to compensate for reduced US involvement, has put pressure on the budgets of many European nations, contributing to financial instability across the Eurozone. Inflation has particularly risen due to the energy crisis exacerbated by the ongoing conflict with Russia, leading to economic stagnation and growing discontent.
The political landscape has become more fragmented, with far-right and nationalist movements gaining traction by capitalizing on fears of war and economic hardship. In countries like Hungary and Italy, anti-NATO sentiment has grown, further undermining European unity and complicating efforts to present a united front against Russian aggression.
Europe’s new realities
Trump’s policies have compelled Europe to confront the reality that it can no longer depend on the US for its security. This recognition has sparked significant efforts to develop an independent European defense strategy. Initiatives like the EU’s Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) have gained momentum, with member states committing to increased collaboration and joint military projects.
However, Europe’s journey toward greater defense autonomy has faced challenges, as logistical and bureaucratic obstacles continue to impede progress. Additionally, Europe has sought alternative security partnerships with countries such as Canada, Japan, and Australia while also stepping up support for defense technology and cybersecurity. Despite its exit from the EU, the United Kingdom remains active in NATO, enhancing its presence in Eastern Europe with additional troops in Poland and the Baltics.
In short, Trump’s transactional bilateral approach has resulted in a fragmented and unpredictable international landscape, prompting Europe to reassess its long-term security architecture.
As the US retreats from its traditional role as a guarantor of European security, the need for Europe to establish a robust independent defense framework has become increasingly urgent. The future of Europe depends on its ability to adapt to these new geopolitical realities, ensuring it can effectively counter Russian expansionism and navigate the growing uncertainty surrounding US foreign policy.
Simon Hutagalung is a retired Indonesian foreign minister and received his Master’s degree in Political Science and Comparative Politics from the City University of New York.
The views expressed are the author’s and not necessarily of Kyiv Post.