Written by Chieh-Ting Yeh.
Image credit: Володимир Зеленський/ Facebook.
The debacle between Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, his American counterpart Donald Trump, and Vice President J.D. Vance on 28 February was a chilling reminder to Taiwan of how fickle U.S. policy is these days. The Trump administration’s apparent disengagement from Ukraine underscores a troubling pattern of “strategic unreliability,” raising serious concerns about whether Taiwan could face a similar fate in the event of a crisis.
Even before this, it oftentimes seems as if the United States’ policy on Taiwan is made in a vacuum—that it is exclusively a matter of U.S. interests. But Taiwan’s future is not just a concern for the region; it is a critical test of U.S. leadership and credibility on the world stage.
Decisions made in Washington regarding Taiwan will send a clear signal not only to allies in the Indo-Pacific but also to partners in Europe. A strong and principled Taiwan policy is not simply about managing tensions with China, but it is essential to preserving international stability and reinforcing trust in U.S. alliances.
Ukraine’s Lesson for Taiwan
The Trump administration’s approach to Ukraine has cast a long shadow over America’s commitments elsewhere. Trump’s pushing Ukraine toward a deal that would cede occupied territory to Russia, coupled with an end to U.S. military aid, has been widely interpreted as a sign of abandonment, which is a hairpin turn for U.S. policy.
The implications for Taiwan are stark: If the United States is unwilling to maintain robust support for Ukraine, despite the direct challenge Russia poses to European security, are the current standing assurances towards Taiwan reliable? Should Beijing escalate its threats?
Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy suggests that Taiwan needs to ostensibly display its immediate and tangible value to the United States to maintain favour, such as the 100 billion dollar investment announced by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) on 3 March.
Most foreign policy experts in the U.S. administration are keenly aware of Taiwan’s indispensable role in the global supply chain, particularly in advanced chip manufacturing. The question is whether Taiwan’s strategic economic importance will be enough to secure unwavering U.S. support in the face of Chinese aggression.
Taiwan’s Strategic Importance
While some view Taiwan’s security as a localized, even trivial issue, its significance reaches far beyond Asia. Taiwan sits in the centre of the chain of islands encircling China’s eastern coast, known as the First Island Chain, which includes Japan, Okinawa, and the Philippines. It is the strategic barrier that limits China’s ability to project naval and air power deeper into the Pacific. Disruptions in Taiwan’s high-tech sector would have profound economic consequences, reverberating across markets in the United States, Europe, and beyond.
U.S. allies like Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines are also closely watching how the U.S. treats Taiwan as a direct reflection of American credibility. If the United States “abandons” Taiwan, these nations may reconsider their security arrangements, either by pursuing their own defence capabilities—including nuclear deterrence—or by moving closer to China to hedge against uncertainty. This would fundamentally weaken the U.S.-led security architecture that has underpinned regional stability for decades.
The European Perspective
The strategic importance of Taiwan extends beyond the Indo-Pacific. NATO allies are watching closely how Washington navigates tensions in the Taiwan Strait, as U.S. actions there will influence perceptions of its reliability as a security partner in other regions. A failure to deter Chinese aggression against Taiwan would raise doubts about America’s willingness to uphold its security commitments in Europe, particularly in the face of Russian threats.
The Russian invasion and the Trump Administration’s revisionary blackmail of Ukraine have underscored the importance of deterrence and credible security assurances. NATO allies understand that the unpredictability from Washington in one part of the world could embolden adversaries elsewhere. If China perceives U.S. hesitation over Taiwan, Russia may interpret it as a further opportunity to challenge NATO’s resolve in Eastern Europe.
Taiwan is also a crucial economic partner for Europe, particularly in the technology and manufacturing sectors. Should China take control of Taiwan, supply chain disruptions could force European nations to reassess their dependence on China, potentially triggering an economic realignment.
The Risks of Strategic Unreliability
U.S. leadership is built not only on military strength but also on credibility. If Washington wavers in Taiwan, it will not only embolden China but also send a dangerous message to other authoritarian regimes that American deterrence is unreliable. This could lead to heightened instability, with adversaries probing U.S. commitments in regions ranging from the South China Sea to Eastern Europe.
Furthermore, a weak or inconsistent Taiwan policy could fracture long-standing alliances that have shaped global security since World War II. Security frameworks such as NATO, AUKUS, and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) are built on the expectation that the United States will uphold its commitments. If Washington appears hesitant in defending Taiwan, allies may lose faith in U.S. leadership and seek alternative security arrangements. This would weaken collective deterrence, erode global stability, and increase the likelihood of future conflicts.
The parallels between Ukraine and Taiwan are hard to ignore. Both nations stand at the frontlines of democracy, facing existential threats from expansionist authoritarian neighbours. The way Washington handles Ukraine today is not just about Europe—it sets a precedent for the rest of the world in understanding how Washington conducts itself internationally. A wavering, unpredictable America does not deter aggression; it leads everyone to believe aggression is necessary for survival.
The Taiwan issue transcends regional security—it is the last defining test of U.S. commitment to maintaining a rules-based international order. If the United States fails to stand firm, as it has demonstrated in Ukraine, it risks not only losing Taiwan but also reshaping global power dynamics in ways that favour authoritarian expansionism.
The decisions made today regarding Taiwan will shape America’s role in the decades to come. The United States must demonstrate that its commitments are steadfast, its alliances are reliable, and its deterrence is credible. The world is watching, and history will judge the choices that unfold in the years ahead.
Chieh-Ting Yeh is a venture investor in Silicon Valley and a director of U.S. Taiwan Watch, an international think tank focusing on US-Taiwan relations. In addition, he is a co-founder and the editor of Ketagalan Media and an advisor for the Global Taiwan Institute and National Taiwan Normal University’s International Taiwan Studies Center.