Fatih Yurtsever*
Recent US-Russia negotiations in Saudi Arabia, conducted without Ukrainian or European Union representatives, have intensified European security anxieties following Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January.
As US policy pivots inward, Europe’s search for security partners beyond Washington has heightened interest in NATO allies with significant defense capabilities. Turkey, along with the United Kingdom and Norway, represents one of several non-EU NATO members whose military and industrial capabilities could support Europe’s defense ambitions.
Turkey’s defense industry has experienced substantial growth, with exports increasing by 103 percent in 2020-2024 since the previous five-year period, capturing 1.7 percent of the global arms market and ranking Turkey as the 11th largest arms exporter worldwide.
Turkey’s expertise in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) has garnered European attention. On March 6 Italy’s Leonardo and Turkey’s Baykar signed a memorandum of understanding to establish a joint venture focused on developing next-generation drone technologies.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has advocated for strengthening ties with Turkey, urging European Union leaders to move beyond longstanding tensions. At a private dinner in February, Rutte stressed Turkey’s indispensable role in continental security, stating, “Decide who you want on your team, regardless of the issues you might have.”
President Trump has previously expressed skepticism about extensive US military commitments abroad. The February talks established a framework for future Ukraine war negotiations but notably excluded key European stakeholders, deepening concerns about US reliability as a security partner.
The exclusion of European allies from these critical discussions comes as the continent reassesses its strategic position in a changing geopolitical landscape. This development has accelerated Europe’s push toward defense autonomy and independent security structures.
EU demands a defense surge
In response, the EU has launched ambitious initiatives to bolster its defense capabilities. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed the “ReArm Europe” plan on March 4, aiming to mobilize up to 800 billion euros ($870 billion) for defense investments.
The plan includes borrowing 150 billion euros to lend to national governments for defense projects and potentially exempting defense spending from EU debt rules, creating a fiscal space of approximately 650 billion euros over four years.
These steps reflect a broader strategy of “military Keynesianism,” where defense spending is increasingly viewed as an economic catalyst amid Europe’s industrial slowdown.
Germany is reportedly considering investments potentially reaching 1 trillion euros over the coming decade, with 500 billion euros allocated for infrastructure and defense spending caps removal, partly to offset job losses in its struggling automotive sector.
Leyen delivered a stark message to lawmakers in Strasbourg on March 11, saying, “Europe’s security order is being shaken, and we can no longer count on America’s full protection.”
She called for a significant increase in defense spending, urging member states to prioritize investments in “strategic capability” in Europe’s defense industry through multi-annual contracts and joint procurement.
Leyen proposed up to 150 billion euros ($163 billion) in EU-backed loans to incentivize purchases from European defense contractors. Adjustments to fiscal rules to accommodate this spending remain under negotiation.
The eligibility of non-EU nations like Turkey, the United Kingdom and Norway for these funds remains unresolved, highlighting tensions in the EU’s approach. While some EU leaders advocate for deeper defense cooperation with the UK, others, including France, seek broader agreements addressing additional issues such as migration and fishing rights.
The NATO secretary-general cautioned the EU against establishing barriers that exclude non-EU NATO allies from defense industrial activities, warning such exclusions could increase costs, hinder production and stifle innovation.
NATO and EU push for cooperation
This appeal aligns with Brussels’ efforts to enhance defense collaboration with non-EU partners, including frameworks like the proposed Rearmament Bank. However, challenges persist, notably the Cyprus dispute.
The decades-old conflict in Cyprus presents a significant hurdle to closer EU-Turkey relations. The island has been divided since 1974, when Turkey intervened following a Greek-backed coup. The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, established in 1983, is recognized only by Turkey, while the rest of the international community recognizes the Republic of Cyprus as the sole legitimate government of the entire island.
Greece and Cyprus have called for constructive engagement from Turkey on unresolved eastern Mediterranean issues. Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides has said that any agreement must align with United Nations resolutions, reaffirming commitment to reunification talks. Conversely, Turkish Cypriot Foreign Minister Tahsin Ertuğruloğlu expressed skepticism about upcoming UN-led meetings, citing irreconcilable positions.
A Greek diplomat described Athens’s stance as “cautious rather than dogmatic,” pointing to the need for Turkey to address bilateral grievances. These ongoing disputes highlight the complexities in EU-Turkey relations and broader challenges in regional security cooperation.
Turkey’s Russia dilemma
Turkey’s complex relationship with Russia adds further intricacy to its geopolitical stance. While Ankara has supplied Ukraine with Bayraktar TB2 drones, which have been effectively utilized against Russian forces, it has simultaneously maintained robust economic and energy ties with Moscow.
Turkey’s largest oil refiner, Tüpraş, stopped purchasing Russian crude oil in February due to US sanctions against Russian energy entities.
This “strategic ambiguity” has unsettled European officials, who fear it could undermine joint defense efforts.
Turkey’s balancing act — supporting Ukraine militarily while engaging Russia diplomatically — tests the EU’s trust as European leaders work to strengthen the continent’s defense capabilities amid shifting security dynamics.
Analysts and NATO leaders see potential in bridging these divides. Turkey’s inclusion in NATO-EU dialogues, such as the informal “Likeminded Countries” framework, has been hailed as a step toward mutual trust, according to the Anadolu news agency in March.
NATO Secretary-General Rutte has stressed that involving non-EU allies in defense industrial efforts is “vital for Europe’s security,” the Financial Times reported.
The Atlantic Council argues that Turkey’s military strength — boasting NATO’s second-largest army — and industrial capacity could anchor a more resilient European defense architecture.
To realize this potential, experts propose reciprocal steps. Turkey could clarify its stance on Russia, aligning more visibly with EU strategic goals, while the EU might deepen Turkey’s integration through associate membership or tailored defense pacts, according to the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).
The Leonardo-Baykar venture offers a blueprint for practical collaboration, suggesting that economic incentives could gradually ease political tensions.
Yet unlocking this partnership demands deft diplomacy to resolve disputes and align divergent interests.
Von der Leyen’s call for Europe to “take greater charge of its own defense” on March 11 shows the urgency of these efforts.
Turkey’s pivotal role may well define the success of Europe’s push toward greater defense independence amid changing transatlantic relations.
* Fatih Yurtsever is a former naval officer in the Turkish Armed Forces. He uses a pseudonym due to security concerns.