“To watch and do nothing would be madness,” Macron said of Russia’s military buildup.
“Russia has become, at the moment when I am talking to you and for the years to come, a threat to France and to Europe,” French President Emmanuel Macron said in a televised statement on Wednesday.
The unfolding withdrawal of the United States from the support of Ukraine is leading Europe to rally in the country’s defense. Last week, Macron announced his intentions to explore a change in his country’s nuclear posture as a way to ensure the security of Europe.
Macron: The Russian Threat Is Real
“Russia, at the same time, continues to rearm, spending more than 40% of its budget for this purpose,” Macron said—noting that while Moscow has said it desires peace in Ukraine, it has also continued a military buildup.
The French president cited data from the French Ministry of Defense indicating that Russia had prepared an army of 1.2 million personnel, 4,000 main battle tanks, and 1,200 fighter jets—far outstripping the strength of any single army in Europe. “By 2030, it plans to further increase its army, to have 300,000 more soldiers, 3,000 tanks, and 300 more fighter jets,” he added.
Such an increase over five years would put the total strength of the Russian armed forces to approximately 1,5 million troops, 7,000 main battle tanks, and 1,500 fighter jets. The Kremlin has repeatedly announced plans to expand its armed forces, even in the face of devasting losses in Ukraine. In 2024, for example, the Russian forces lost more than 400,000 men killed and wounded in the fighting.
“So, who can believe, in this context, that today’s Russia will stop at Ukraine?” Macron asked the French people, while also sending a warning to the U.S. and the rest of Europe.
A Change in France’s Nuclear Posture?
The next German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, raised questions about NATO and whether it is still viable after the seeming withdrawal of the U.S. from Europe. The German politician urged France, Germany, and the United Kingdom to sit down and consider an expansion of their nuclear protection.
“Our nuclear deterrent protects us: it’s complete, sovereign, French through and through,” Macron said.
France has developed its own nuclear weapons technology—one of only two nations in Europe to have done so, alongside Britain—and does not rely on other countries, including allies and partners, for its nuclear deterrence capabilities.
“But, responding to the historic call of the future German Chancellor, I have decided to open the strategic debate on the protection of our allies on the European continent through our (nuclear) deterrence,” Macron said, implicitly referencing the risk that the United States might withdraw its nuclear umbrella from Europe.
Up until now, the French military has pursued a defensive nuclear strategy, or a second-strike posture. However, it remains to be seen whether Paris is willing and capable to change that strategy and assume a more assertive nuclear posture.
France has an estimated 290 nuclear warheads and is the fourth-largest nuclear power in the world, behind Russia, the United States, and China. French nuclear weapons can be fired from aircraft and submarines, giving Paris a nuclear “dyad.”
The French president emphasized that Europeans consider the U.S. an important ally, but that Europe needs to move forward if that is no longer the case.
“To watch and do nothing would be madness,” Macron said.
About the Author: Stavros Atlamazoglou
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing inspecial operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured inBusiness Insider,Sandboxx, andSOFREP.
Image: Shutterstock / photocosmos1.