The International Criminal Court has finally got its man — almost. A former Philippine president, Rodrigo Duterte, wanted for the slaughter of thousands of people in a “war on drugs” that he waged as mayor of the southern port city of Davao and then in six years as president between 2016 and 2022, was arrested as he arrived at Manila Airport after speech-making at Hong Kong.
Notorious for issuing warrants to bring in leaders whom it cannot bring to trial, notably President Putin and Prime Minister Netanyahu, the ICC at last has the cooperation of Mr. Duterte’s successor, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., whose father ruled as a corrupt dictator for 20 years before his ouster in 1986.
Mr. Marcos “has committed to follow the Interpol’s procedures, and people expect him to stick to that,” a veteran human rights analyst in the Philippines, Carlos Conde, told the Sun. “The challenge really now is when the government can send Duterte to the Hague and face the ICC.”
Mr. Duterte, now 79, began fending off charges of “crimes against humanity” from when he was mayor of Davao and campaigned for president in 2016 on promises to broaden his war on drugs to cover the entire country. Keeping his word, he authorized the killing, without arrests and trials, of at least 6,000 drug users and dealers, according to police, but the number is widely believed to have been five times as many, 30,000 or more.
Appealing to voters long upset by the spread of drugs, Mr. Duterte repeated almost as a slogan, “Either you kill me or I will kill you.” Updating that line as he faced officials armed with the ICC warrant, he blurted, “You will just have to kill me.”
Before anything happens to him, though, Mr. Duterte hopes to avoid the clutches of the ICC, from which as president he withdrew the Philippines in 2018. The Philippines’ ally, America, which never joined the ICC, may sympathize. Mr. Biden termed as “outrageous” the ICC charge that Mr. Netanyahu and his defense minister, Yoav Gallant, committed “war crimes” against Hamas, and Mr. Trump imposed sanctions on the ICC. After all, Israel wasn’t an ICC member either.
Mr. Duterte’s lawyer, Salvador Panelo, rushing to the airport, left no doubt he will fight to keep Mr. Duterte from having to face trial. Talking to reporters against the backdrop of a row of policemen, he said the justice department, not the ICC, should have jurisdiction.
Yet why did Mr. Marcos never approve Mr. Duterte’s arrest? The answer lies in the labyrinth of Philippine deal-making, personal bonds, and political rivalries, not least the strained relationship between Bongbong and his vice president, Mr. Duterte’s beloved daughter, Sara, also a former mayor of Davao.
Ms. Duterte, who ran on a ticket separate from that of Mr. Marcos in 2022, is battling impeachment voted by the lower house of the Philippine congress for corruption as well as death threats against her foes. The Philippine senate must decide whether to approve her impeachment and oust her. She’s hinted she may run for president in 2028 to succeed Mr. Marcos, who cannot run for a second six-year term under the constitution adopted after his father’s downfall.
Incredibly, Mr. Marcos has avoided renewing Philippine membership in the ICC before deciding he still might get Mr. Duterte out of the way. The justice secretary, Jesus Crispin Remulla, said in January that if Interpol requests “the arrest or delivery of the custody of a person under ICC jurisdiction, we will respond favorably.”
“From what we’re seeing, there’s no indication that Marcos would renege on that commitment,” Mr. Conde told the Sun. “I think he will send Duterte to the Hague. It’s just a matter of when” he faces charges. “Will they let them go? I doubt it.”
But how could Mr. Duterte fall under “ICC jurisdiction” if the Philippines has long since withdrawn membership? The ICC, the Philippines agreed, could pursue the case for “crimes against humanity” committed by Mr. Duterte before membership formally ended in 2019, a year after he announced withdrawal from the agency.
“The Dutertes are damaged goods politically,” Mr. Conde said, “and the police hierarchy is under pressure to perform better, to come off as having reformed its ways.”