The Seattle Seahawks have reportedly found their next starting quarterback.
The Seahawks and Sam Darnold agreed to a three-year, $100.5 million deal at the beginning of the NFL’s free agent negotiating period Monday morning, according to multiple NFL insiders.
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The news comes three days after Seattle reportedly traded starting QB Geno Smith to Pete Carroll’s Las Vegas Raiders for a third-round pick.
Did the Seahawks take a step forward, backward or sideways in transitioning from Smith to Darnold at quarterback? It’s hard argue that it was anything other than a step in the right direction.
Tale of the tape
Darnold and Smith’s careers have had similar trajectories. Both were drafted by the New York Jets with hopes they’d be franchise quarterbacks. Darnold went No. 3 overall in the 2018 draft, and Smith was taken in the second round in 2013.
Both had their share of struggles in New York. The Jets moved on from Darnold after three lackluster seasons, trading him to the Carolina Panthers for three draft picks before his rookie deal was up. And New York benched Smith after two years and let him go in free agency once his rookie contract ended.
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Both resurrected their careers with Pro Bowl seasons after spending multiple years as backups. Smith did so with the Seahawks in 2022, winning NFL Comeback Player of the Year and finishing ninth in MVP voting. Darnold did it with the Minnesota Vikings last season, finishing 10th in MVP voting.
Sam Darnold’s last 4th quarter comeback?
Week 16 against his new team 🔥 @Seahawks pic.twitter.com/4XfGfI0jld
— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) March 10, 2025
Their 2024 stats are fairly comparable with Darnold’s advantage in TD passes being the outlier. Darnold threw 35 TD passes to Smith’s 21, and had less interceptions (12 to Smith’s 15). Smith had a higher completion percentage (70.4% to Darnold’s 66.2%) and edged Darnold by one yard with 4,320 passing yards.
The Seahawks’ struggling offensive line is often used as caveat for Smith’s numbers, with the assumption they’d be better with improved protection up front. But Darnold’s O-line in Minnesota wasn’t all that much better. The Seahawks ranked 26th in Pro Football Focus pass block grading and allowed the third most sacks (54) in the league. The Vikings ranked 18th in pass block grading and allowed the ninth most sacks (49).
How the Seahawks come out ahead
While the quarterbacks have similarities in their career arcs, the Seahawks get quite a bit younger by replacing the 34-year-old Smith with the 27-year-old Darnold.
The fact that Darnold turned things around at 27, which is five years younger than Smith did at 32, is another plus. It’s reasonable to think that Darnold can build off his 2024 season and continue to improve. Meanwhile, it’s more likely that Smith’s 2022 season was his best.
Darnold’s reported contract carries an average yearly value of $33.5 million. According to The Seattle Times’ Bob Condotta, the Seahawks offered Smith a two-year deal in the $40-45 million per year range. Seattle reportedly never got a counteroffer from Smith.
So even if Darnold ends up being a step sideways performance-wise, the Seahawks are saving at least $7-12 million per year that they can invest into other players, and potentially more if Smith wasn’t willing to sign for the high end of his reported offer.
On top of that, Seattle has an additional third-round draft pick from the Smith trade. With Sunday’s blockbuster deal that sent wide receiver DK Metcalf the Steelers for a package that included Pittsburgh’s second-round pick added in, the Seahawks have five picks in the top 100 of the upcoming draft.
That’s five opportunities to make needed improvement on the offensive line, draft a potential quarterback of the future, find a new wide receiver to pair with 2024 breakout Jaxon Smith-Njigba or continue to shore up the defense – all in the first three rounds.
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