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Nill may have executed his masterstroke.
If you were to ask a Stars fan whether Jim Nill had it in him to trade for Mikko Rantanen, the response would have elicited laughter. Some may have said, “Perhaps in the offseason.” But the rest of us would have all been in agreement: it ain’t happening.
There are a lot of reasons, which Robert covered in his assessment, but it’s worth emphasizing once more. For one, Nill was explicit in his desire to keep young players like Logan Stankoven and Mavrik Bourque off the table. Per our own Sean Shapiro, who spoke with Dimitri Filipovic, impending unrestricted free agent Ryan Donato was looking like Dallas’ initial target. UFAs were, after all, where Nill told ESPN he’d be shopping (which technically made Rantanen a target, but again, with what assets?). That’s to say nothing of Rantanen’s demands, which were rumored to be a nine-figure contract similar to Leon Draisaitl’s. In his 12 years in Dallas, Nill had only traded one first-round pick, and that was for Nils Lundkvist. Plus, there’s the cost of keeping the band back together until Jason Robertson and Thomas Harley are up for new deals in 2026. So, no, obviously: no way Nill would trade for Rantanen.
And then he did.
With the moves to acquire Mikael Granlund, Cody Ceci, and now Rantanen, Nill has traded three first-rounders within the course of a few months. This is unlike Nill, for a lot of reasons. Even ignoring the value of a first-round draft choice, until last March, 35 percent of his moves centered around buying players in free agency. The other large slice of business has been in marginal moves involving AHL players and prospects, as we’ve seen in recent years with Stankoven, Bourque, and Lian Bichsel. Only 10 percent of his “GMmanship” has involved a trade. In the last six years, the only big deadline moves you can point to are Chris Tanev and Mats Zuccarello. And in both those cases, the compensation was minimal, with neither costing a first-round pick. Rantanen, conversely, cost $96 million, Stankoven, two first-rounders, and two third-rounders. Nothing about that reads like a Nill move.
Of course, nobody’s complaining about this move, either. Dallas is the best rush team in hockey. Rantanen might be the best rush attacker on the wing in hockey. Since the 2021-22 season, he is seventh in total points, well above names like Auston Matthews, Matthew Tkachuk, and anyone wearing victory green. And 43 percent of his 373 points in that time are goals. Digging into more advanced stats, Rantanen has been worth 10 wins during that time frame, which is third on the Stars behind only Robertson and Roope Hintz (12 and 11 wins, respectively). Now he gets to add to a power play that was already turning into one of the most dangerous units the game has seen in years.
This raises the question: how did Nill pull this rabbit out of a hat? I suppose we can pretend to be dramatic, and invoke the SEO gods. You already know all the key words: Dallas Mavericks, Luka Dončić, Nico Harrison, and that weird Adelson family. Was there something being said between the devil and the angel on Nill’s shoulders debating how important it was for the city of Dallas to have a new hero? Nill is not a Morlock. Bob Sturm and Ralph Strangis even discussed the idea of the Stars upending the Mavs as the big brother of American Airlines Center. Just last month, Nill himself was even asked about the Mavericks trade.
This might seem like an obvious mix, with Nill’s impossible blockbuster framed against the improbable idiocy of the Stars’ co-tenant. In addition, it’s true that before all of the drama of the past month, Nill had never been the type to do anything like this. But I do believe he has been building toward it—toward a franchise that is run as much as a business as it is like a family.
And we know this part, too. Above all else, Nill has achieved what he has by treating the sport of hockey like the community it is rather than the business that fortune mongers like the Adelson family want their franchise to be. Nill has candidly discussed the human element when weighing trades. It’s no surprise, then, that in addition to giving their stars and non-stars trade protection, buyouts are always nuclear options, and most players see the end of their contracts in Dallas. However, this concept of community has an explicit representation. The “Finnish Mafia” is not a meme. Finland is the community within the community in Dallas: Hintz, Miro Heiskanen, Esa Lindell, Mikael Granlund, not to mention prospects like Emil Hemming and Arttu Hryry. Rantanen didn’t just join a team. He joined his countrymen, and Rantanen was open about how big a selling point this was. Professional athletes are motivated to win, despite what failing GMs and coaches who lazily point to paychecks might tell you otherwise. But motivation often cannot be found in a wad of cash. It’s an olive tree. With the community Nill has built, Rantanen can reach for more than just one branch.
This may read like a schmaltzy argument, but I beg to differ. This idea of community is baked into what is happening in the region away from the spotlight, Al Montoya’s venture to bring hockey to the Texas border being the most recent. It’s there for Noche Mexicana. And it has created an atmosphere the hockey industry desires. Dallas is considered one of the four best-run franchises in hockey, per agent polling at The Athletic, with the Stars ranking third among the best front offices to deal with. With that, Dallas gets to have its cake and eat it, too.
I should say, I like the move. I realize that goes without saying for everyone else on the planet, but I’m the Chicken Little who still has questions about a blueline that can’t protect the neutral zone. But that’s why I like it. You don’t have to be perfect to win the Cup. Colorado wasn’t big enough. Vegas didn’t have a superstar. Florida’s blueline was sketchy. Weaknesses can be easier to hide when you know your strengths and lean into them. Dallas’ strength was always its offense. Now it’s undeniable in the same way as Colorado’s rush attack was undeniable. And, for that matter, Vegas’ passing and Florida’s forecheck.
By trading for Rantanen, the Stars get to further weaponize what makes them unique. They’re now the odds-on favorite to win it all, per ESPN’s odds, and second only to Florida in Dom Luszczyszyn’s model. Whether Dallas finally wins it all is not really the point. The point is that Nill hasn’t just built a winner, but also a community of winners. I’m not sure that’s in his job description, but it’s why few teams are better positioned for the next eight years. Starting with this one.
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