At the time of writing, the Celtics are positioned second in the Eastern Conference. They’ve had a strong year. Jayson Tatum has been a steady and consistent leader.
His contributions, alongside those of Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis, and a generally well-rounded bench, have kept them both competitive and very postseason prepared.
That’s great for Celtics fans. It’s not so great for the team’s 2025 draft prospects. While the NBA draft is complicated, it tends to favor teams who are struggling. The Celtics do not fall into that category.
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So, who will the Celtics choose in 2025? While it’s hard to say, a close look at the process can add clarity to the process. How Does the NBA Draft Work
The NBA draft works based on a lottery system. The bottom sixteen teams in the league—those who did not make the playoffs—are given the highest chance to land the first pick. The three worst teams each have a 14% chance of winning the first overall selection, while the remaining lottery teams have progressively lower odds based on their record.
Of the teams featured in the lottery, the worst three have the very highest probability of nabbing the first-round pick. However, because there are so many teams entered into the lottery, sometimes teams that were already relatively sound wind up securing the top spot. It's not exactly a matter of the worst team in the league winding up with the best prospect.
The lottery determines the order of the first four picks, with the remaining teams slotted in reverse order of their regular-season record. This system was implemented to discourage teams from deliberately losing games to secure better draft positions.
Sometimes, teams who have secured an early pick will trade that privilege for a player already in the NBA. These trades often involve additional assets such as future draft picks or role players to balance the transaction value.
It's the first few picks that inevitably wind up generating the most attention, as these selections typically represent the opportunity to draft franchise-changing talent who can impact a team's trajectory for years to come.
Where do the Celtics Stand?
Because the Celtics are currently second in the Eastern Conference, they will not be eligible for an early pick. Their chances will come later in both the first and second rounds of the draft. How late? We can't know for sure. The draft order will not be decided until the end of the regular season. That will come on April 13th. Plenty of time for a change in the standings, but probably not enough time for the very steady Celtics to fall enough in the rankings to nab a significantly better pick.
For playoff teams like the Celtics, draft position is determined by their regular-season record and how far they advance in the playoffs. Teams with better records are selected later in each round. As a top-seeded team, Boston will likely receive one of the final picks in each round, typically between 25-30 in the first round and 55-60 in the second round.
Do good players come late in the draft?
Absolutely. You can’t forget that everyone who enters the NBA draft is, full-stop, one of the best one thousand or so basketball players alive—in the entire world. Yes, even within this relatively small pool of players, there are some very visible differences from the top to the bottom.
USA Today recently put out a list of the all-time best-second-round NBA picks. Not everyone on the list has immediate name recognition, but there are some excellent players included.
Most notable? Nikola Jokic, who was nabbed in 2014 by the Denver Nuggets.
Obviously, they hit the lottery there. Even without nabbing an all-star, though, it is very possible to grab a good player who will make valuable contributions in the 2025 season.
So, who will the Celtics pick?
It’s difficult to say with serious accuracy who a team featured this late in the draft will pick. Predictions are generally very accurate for the first 1-3 picks, but then a bunch of variables enter the equation and it muddies the issue.
Alex Karaban out of UConn is a potential option. Karaban is a two-time NCAA Champion. He nearly entered the draft portal last season before deciding to stay in Connecticut and try for a three-peat. While his draft stock might have been slightly higher last season, when the Huskies were the best collegiate team in the world, he’s still a good option.