Two decades ago, the United States was beholden to foreign oil, navigating each supply disruption with urgency. The fear of energy scarcity dictated foreign policy, as price spikes and geopolitical turmoil rattled markets. Every president since Richard Nixon has emphasised the need for “energy independence”.
But it was the advent of the American shale revolution in the 2010s that truly changed the game. Leveraging advanced technology and the innovative spirit of the private sector, US producers steered the nation from being the world’s top oil importer to its biggest producer. The power dynamic shifted. When Iranian missiles struck Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq oil facility in 2019, oil prices remained surprisingly stable – a stark contrast to what would have happened in years gone by.
Although the oil-producing states in OPEC+ remain influential, power of the grouping to call the shots has waned. The global energy landscape has been redrawn.
However, energy security isn’t something you achieve once and then forget about; it’s an ongoing struggle that’s constantly changed by the ever-shifting political landscape, new technological advancements, and upheavals in the market. Think Russia using natural gas as a weapon, escalating tensions in the Middle East, or China’s increasing control over critical minerals.
Nowadays, responsibility for energy security goes beyond just supply chains and refining capacity – it also includes the rapidly evolving connection between energy, artificial intelligence, and cybersecurity.
The AI revolution is causing electricity demand to surge like never before. Data centres, which are estimated to presently use around 4% of total US electricity, could be responsible for up to 12% in just a few years, adding pressure to an already weakened power grid. At the same time, energy infrastructure is becoming more and more reliant on digital technology, making crucial assets vulnerable to cyberattacks – or physical sabotage of critical connections. Attacks on pipelines and power plants have shown that weaknesses in digital systems can have real-world repercussions, disrupting energy supplies, inflating prices, and undermining economic stability.
This is a lesson the United States cannot overlook. Energy security is built on strength, not scarcity.
The focus needs to shift from just recognising these risks to adapting and implementing solutions.
Europe’s story is a wake-up call. Germany’s push to move away from nuclear power has had an unexpected outcome: a modern economy now leaning on coal to bridge the energy divide. This shift has led to higher costs, lower energy security, and a more fragile industrial base. Even so, the fundamental problem – insufficient domestic production – hasn’t been solved.
This is a lesson the United States cannot overlook. Energy security is built on strength, not scarcity. Believing that renewables can effortlessly substitute hydrocarbons is a risky fantasy. Although wind and solar will be more prominent, the need for oil, gas, and nuclear energy keeps rising. Meanwhile, China is not waiting. Beijing is not just securing resources, it is reshaping global supply chains on its terms. It is locking in control over critical minerals, building refining capacity, and advancing its nuclear fleet. While Washington debates, China builds. If the United States wants to lead, it must act with urgency.
The path forward is clear: permit, produce, and protect. This means reinforcing grid resilience, revitalising next-generation nuclear as a stable power source, securing critical mineral supply chains to reduce dependence on geopolitical rivals, and harnessing AI to optimise energy systems without compromising security. Energy dominance is not just about drilling – it is about cutting through the bureaucratic red tape that has hamstrung America’s ability to build. Without permitting reform, energy security remains a slogan rather than a strategy. The future belongs to those who produce, not those who restrict.
It is not only for the United States. The conversation must now shift from abstract commitments to decisive action. Energy security is not about merely preparing for “what if” scenarios – it is about asking “Why not?” Why not accelerate domestic energy production to reinforce economic resilience? Why not streamline permitting to unlock a country’s full resource potential? Why not expand LNG exports to bolster alliances and counter adversaries who use energy as a weapon?
Energy security is not just a hedge against uncertainty, it is a strategic imperative. History has shown that those who embrace bold energy policies secure not only their supply but also their strategic advantage. In an era of AI-driven demand, cyber threats, and shifting geopolitical alliances, the question is no longer “What if?” but “Why not lead?”