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For years, Rodrigo Duterte acted as if he were untouchable. As president of the Philippines between 2016 and 2022, the brash would-be strongman scoffed at an investigation by the International Criminal Court into the suspected extrajudicial killings of thousands of people by his government in a sweeping, widely decried anti-drugs crackdown. Under his watch, the Philippines withdrew from the court’s jurisdiction in 2019, with Duterte and his allies decrying the institution as a tool of illegitimate Western bias and hegemony.
“Forget the laws on human rights. If I make it to the presidential palace, I will do just what I did as mayor,” he said ahead of his election victory in 2016. “You drug pushers, holdup men and do-nothings, you better get out because I’ll kill you.”
“I’ll dump all of you into Manila Bay and fatten all the fish there.”
It turns out Duterte will face trial at the ICC, albeit six years later. On Tuesday, he was arrested in Manila on an ICC warrant and taken by chartered jet to The Hague. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. — with whom Duterte has had a falling out — said his government would not assist the ICC’s investigation but complied with the arrest warrant as part of its commitments to Interpol, the international police agency.
An ICC spokesman said the court’s pretrial chamber had issued an arrest warrant for “the crime of murder as a crime against humanity allegedly committed in the Philippines” between November 2011 and March 2019 — a period during which Manila remained in the ICC’s jurisdiction. The country’s government reported in 2022 that at least 6,252 people had died “during antidrug operations” since July 2016, though rights groups and analysts suspect the death toll is far higher.
Duterte’s arrest and transfer for criminal proceedings marks a rare victory for the ICC. He’s the first Asian ex-leader to go to The Hague in these circumstances. The court is not recognized by major world powers such as the United States and China, and its recent efforts to prosecute war crimes related to the war between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza led to an angry backlash in Washington. Last month, the Trump administration slapped sanctions on the ICC’s chief prosecutor, Karim Khan, for his role in advancing the cases against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defense minister Yoav Gallant. The court has issued only 60 arrest warrants in more than two decades and only 21 people have ever been formally detained and appeared before the court.
Rights groups argued Duterte’s arrest and transfer to The Hague would strengthen the rule of law globally. “Duterte’s arrest on an ICC warrant is a hopeful sign for victims in the Philippines and beyond,” Agnes Callamard, secretary general of Amnesty International, said in a statement, urging full “accountability” for the abuses of the Duterte era. “It shows that suspected perpetrators of the worst crimes, including government leaders, can and will face justice, wherever they are in the world.”
Callamard gestured to the ICC’s travails in getting signatories to its founding statute to follow through on its arrest warrants. “At a time when too many governments renege on their ICC obligations while others attack or sanction international courts, Duterte’s arrest is a huge moment for the power of international law,” she said.
Duterte’s family, including his daughter, the country’s embattled vice president Sara Duterte, decried the manner of his arrest and transfer to The Hague. But they appeared to have little recourse left to fight the proceedings. Meanwhile, the relatives of Duterte’s alleged victims celebrated. “At last, justice is slowly being achieved,” a woman whose husband was slain in a raid in 2017 told the news site Rappler.
Former president Rodrigo Duterte defended his tactics at an Oct. 28, 2024, Senate hearing probing his war on drugs. (Video: Reuters)
But there’s reason for pessimism, too. The arrest of Duterte “highlights both the strengths and the weaknesses of international justice — mainly the weaknesses,” noted the Economist. “On the one hand, a leader who ordered thousands of deaths without a shred of due process now faces trial, and perhaps a long jail term. That could make other thugs in high office think twice before committing similar outrages.”
The British newspaper concluded: “On the other hand, the case is only going ahead because the political winds in the Philippines have changed.” That’s because of a schism between the Marcos and Duterte clans in a country where feudal and political dynasties wield disproportionate influence over the national scene. Duterte, who remained popular until term limits forced him to step down in 2022, saw his daughter emerge as an heir apparent and win the vice presidency on a joint ticket with Marcos.
Their collaboration “was thought to be a strong source of political cover for the former president,” my colleagues reported. “But the alliance has come apart: After political disagreements, hostilities between the president and vice president reached a tipping point in November, when Sara Duterte claimed in an online news conference that she had contracted someone to kill president Marcos Jr. if she were ever assassinated. In early February, Sara Duterte was impeached by the country’s House of Representatives over that threat and corruption allegations. She faces a Senate trial.”
Duterte’s arrest will roil the waters ahead of midterm elections in the country. “Amid this power struggle, the nation continues to suffer from a politically distracted government and inefficient governance dominated by self-serving political dynasties,” wrote Andrea Chloe Wong in the Lowy Interpreter, an analysis site run by a leading Australian think tank. “Whichever family proclaims victory, Filipinos remain the ultimate losers.”