Nottingham Forest have 10 games remaining to get over the line in their hunt for European football.
The third-placed Reds took a big step towards Champions League football with their 1-0 win over Manchester City last weekend. But Nuno Espirito Santo’s side know the job is far from finished.
The Portuguese still refuses to discuss his team’s push for a top-four finish, preferring instead to focus on one game at a time. A trip to relegation-threatened Ipswich Town is next on the horizon for Forest as they visit Portman Road on Saturday (3pm kick-off) in their final fixture before the international break.
Victory over City took the Reds to 51 points from their 28 Premier League games played so far. So how many more points might they need from the run-in to finish in the Champions League spots?
Normally, the top four spots guarantee passage into Europe’s elite competition. Based on points totals from the last five Premier League campaigns, 68.6 points is the average tally needed to clinch fourth. Below is a look at how many points the fourth-placed side accumulated in the last five seasons.
2023/24 - Aston Villa, 68 points
2022/23 - Newcastle United, 71 points
2021/22 - Tottenham Hotspur, 71 points
2020/21 - Chelsea, 67 points
2019/20 - Chelsea, 66 points
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This term, however, the Premier League is likely to have five representatives in the Champions League. Based on the last five seasons, a total of 66 points is the average needed to finish fifth. Below is a look at how many points the fifth-placed side accumulated in the last five seasons.
2023/24 - Tottenham Hotspur, 66 points
2022/23 - Liverpool, 67 points
2021/22 - Arsenal, 69 points
2020/21 - Leicester City, 66 points
2019/20 - Chelsea, 62 points
If 66 points is enough to finish fifth and qualify for the Champions League, Forest would need 15 points from their remaining 10 games to hit that mark. Rounding the average required for fourth up to 69 points, the Reds would need a further 18 points to reach that total.
Stats experts Opta are predicting a fourth-placed finish for Nuno’s men, tipping them to end up just below City in the final standings. They put the Reds’ chances of Champions League qualification at 57.34 percent.
Forest’s remaining Premier League games
Ipswich Town (A) - Saturday, March 15
Manchester United (H) - Tuesday, April 1
Aston Villa (A) - Saturday, April 5
Everton (H) - Saturday, April 12
Tottenham Hotspur (A) - Monday, April 21
Brentford (H) - Saturday, April 26
Crystal Palace (A) - Saturday, May 3
Leicester City (H) - Saturday, May 10
West Ham United (A) - Sunday, May 18
Chelsea (H) - Sunday, May 25
Where will Forest finish in the Premier League table? Click HERE to have your say