MANILA – Three years ago, the most powerful political families in the Philippines joined hands to secure the nation’s biggest election victory in four decades.
Now, they are locked in a feud that threatens to derail one of Asia’s economic growth stars.
In dramatic events on March 11, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s government arrested and deported his predecessor, Mr Rodrigo Duterte, to face the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague.
The move came just over a month after the impeachment of his daughter, Vice-President Sara Duterte, by allies of Mr Marcos. A Senate trial, which would determine whether she gets removed from office, is scheduled to begin in July.
The push by Mr Marcos to sideline his main political opponents marks a gamble that could easily backfire, starting with legislative elections in May that will determine how much he can accomplish in the final three years of his term.
The Dutertes still hold clout, with Ms Duterte a top candidate in polls to win the next presidential vote in 2028.
Just prior to his arrest at the Manila airport, Mr Duterte was regaled by thousands of adoring supporters at a Hong Kong stadium, showing the enduring appeal of an outspoken politician frequently compared to Mr Donald Trump.
And while Mr Marcos also remains popular, his approval ratings have declined in part due to stubbornly high inflation.
“If something bad happens to the economy, then sympathy might shift to the Dutertes,” said Mr Bob Herrera-Lim, managing director of Teneo, a risk consultancy. “For the Marcoses, this is a calculated risk to eliminate the Dutertes as their primary opponent.”
The danger is that the political rift undermines business and household confidence, posing a headwind for growth in one of Asia’s best-performing economies.
The Philippines’ benchmark stock index fell more than 2 per cent on March 11, the most among Asian equity gauges and its biggest drop since Jan 31.
‘Dramatic escalation’
For Mr Duterte, 79, the next step is facing charges in the Netherlands-based ICC over his drug war that killed more than 6,000 people.
Although Mr Marcos initially refused to cooperate with the ICC, that stance changed in 2024, after ties with Ms Duterte ruptured over policy differences.
Mr Marcos has sought stronger ties with the United States to confront Beijing in the disputed South China Sea, a sharp shift from Mr Duterte’s China-friendly foreign policy.
The Philippines has clashed frequently with China under Mr Marcos, who has allowed the US to expand its military presence in the nation.
On March 11, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said Beijing was following developments in the case, adding that the ICC should “exercise its functions and powers prudently in accordance with the law and prevent politicisation or double standards”.
Filipino activists raise their phones with flashlight during a protest vigil supporting former President Rodrigo Duterte's arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court, in Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines, March 11, 2025. REUTERS/ Fiel Ponferrada
Activists raise their phones during a protest vigil supporting former president Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court.PHOTO: REUTERS
A former mayor of Davao City in the southern island of Mindanao, Mr Duterte is known for his brash style of governance and expletive-laced rhetoric, and had defied criticisms from the West during his six-year term as president that ended in 2022.
That earned him huge public support, which he retained even as he implemented the brutal anti-drug crackdown that led to his arrest on March 11.
“Duterte’s arrest is the most dramatic escalation yet in his feud with his ex-ally Marcos,” said Mr Dereck Aw, a senior analyst at Control Risks.
Mr Duterte had asked the Philippine Supreme Court to stop the enforcement of the ICC order, saying “foreign-issued arrest requests have no automatic legal effect” in the country.
Mr Marcos said he had to comply with Philippine commitments to Interpol, the global police coordination body.
Last one to see power shift
Ms Duterte criticised the move, arguing it “shows the world that this government is willing to abandon its own citizens and betray the very essence of our sovereignty and national dignity”.
“Today, our own government has surrendered a Filipino citizen – even a former president at that – to foreign powers,” she said in a statement. “This is a blatant affront to our sovereignty and an insult to every Filipino who believes in our nation’s independence.”
Ms Duterte was impeached by Mr Marcos’ allies in the House of Representatives in February on charges that she plotted to kill Mr Marcos and misused public funds – accusations she has denied.
The absence of any immediate public backlash against Mr Duterte’s detention could give the Marcos administration a reason to push for Ms Duterte’s ouster, according to Mr Herrera-Lim from Teneo.
“It increases the probability that the government will try to exert pressure on senators to convict Sara Duterte,” he said.
Salvador Panelo (L), lawyer of Philippine former president Rodrigo Duterte, speaks to members of the media after filing Habeas Corpus petition at the Supreme Court in Manila on March 12, 2025. Duterte was arrested on March 11 in Manila by police acting on an International Criminal Court warrant tied to his deadly war on drugs. (Photo by Ted ALJIBE / AFP)
Lawyer Salvador Panelo speaks to reporters after filing a habeas corpus petition on behalf of former president Rodrigo Duterte.PHOTO: AFP
Hundreds of Mr Duterte’s supporters held a rally and prayer vigil late on March 12 beside the airport where the former leader was arrested.
In his bailiwick region of Mindanao, thousands also gathered to protest his arrest.
In Manila, human rights activists and families of those killed during the anti-drug campaign assembled to welcome the decision.
“Shifts in power and the end of the Marcos-Duterte alliance left him vulnerable,” Mr Phil Robertson, director at Asia Human Rights and Labour Advocates, said of the former president. “And he was apparently the last one to realise it.” BLOOMBERG
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